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THE LAST SAY: Tips, inside mail, track conditions and market movers for 2024 Champions Day at Flemington and Five Diamonds Day at Rosehill

Today’s best bets, big wagers, key scratchings and the latest track conditions … Ray Thomas gives you all the tools you need to back a winner in Melbourne, Sydney and right around the nation.

Ray Thomas
6 min read
November 9, 2024 - 8:34AM
Hold All Tickets – Punters (Episode 12) Champions Day

Via Sistina can crown her magnificent spring carnival with a fourth Group 1 win in the $3 million Champions Stakes (2000m) at Flemington today.

Trainer Chris Waller’s super mare had already won the Winx Stakes and Turnbull Stakes this campaign before her unforgettable eight-length romp in the Cox Plate and not surprisingly, she dominates betting for the Flemington major at $1.50 favourite with TAB Fixed Odds.

If Via Sistina races anywhere near her Cox Plate form then she does look to have the race at her mercy – but the other two majors are wide open.

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

The return clash of Bella Nipotina and Giga Kick – who ran 1-2 in The Everest – in the $3 million Champions Sprint (1200m) is one of the highlights of the meeting but the betting suggests they won’t have it all their own way.

Bella Nipotina is at the top of the market at $4.60 ahead of Giga Kick at $4.80 but Sunshine In Paris ($5) and Overpass ($5.50) are both pressing the favourites.

The $3 million Champions Mile (1600m) is stacked with seven individual Group 1 winners including reigning Horse of the Year and $4 favourite Pride Of Jenni, Mr Brightside and Antino at $6, Broadsiding at $6.50 and Fangirl at $7.

At Rosehill Gardens, Victorian raider Attrition is attempting to win his second $2 million race in succession in the $2 million Listed Five Diamonds (1800m).

Attrition won the Hill Stakes over the Rosehill 1900m last start and is at $6.50 in latest betting behind the well-backed Territory Express ($4 favourite).

Trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott are represented by $3 favourite North England in the Group 3 $1 million Golden Gift (1100m) and Magic Time, a recent Yulong purchase, is the $2.30 favourite for the Group 2 $500,000 Hot Danish Stakes (1400m).

There were a couple of important scratchings out of the Five Diamonds on race morning with likely leader Iknowastar and import Relentless Voyager both withdrawn on veterinary advice. The Australian debut of Gilded Water (race 5), raced by His Majesty King Charles III, has also been delayed.

• 18 EXPERTS, 4 RACES: Our tipsters give their picks and betting strategies for three Group 1s at Flemington today plus the Five Diamonds at Rosehill

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FLEMINGTON
Weather: Mild, partly cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 21c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: 8m out entire

ROSEHILL GARDENS
Weather: Mild, partly cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 25c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: 3m out entire

DOOMBEN
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day and a forecast top temperature of 31c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: 2.5m out entire

MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Mild, partly cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 21c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: 9m out 1000m to winning post, 6m out remainder

• ROSEHILL PRO TIPS: James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for 2024 Five Diamonds Day

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BE WARY
Flemington is out 8m, continuing the gradual progression since Derby Day when Cup Week started in the true, then was out 2m on Cup Day and 5m for Oaks Day. With the equine traffic that has been on the course this week, expect riders to steer away from the inside in the straight. At Rosehill, the rail is out 3m after being in the true for the Golden Eagle last week. The track raced fairly that day but it is also likely riders will try to get off the inside in the straight.

• FLEMINGTON PRO TIPS: Mark Guest’s race-by-race tips and analysis for 2024 Champions Day

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FLEMINGTON

THE BEST BET
Race 9 No.10 PISANELLO can send punters home with cash in their pockets by taking out the closer on Cup Week at Flemington. Pisanello resumed at the Warwick Farm midweeks late last month and showed his quality to come from back in the field on the turn to burst clear and score with ease. He displayed a similar burst of acceleration to win impressively at Scone during the Cup Carnival in May. Pisanello needs a firm track to show his best which he gets at Flemington.

NEXT BEST
Race 6 No.1 GIGA KICK has steadily worked his way back to top form this spring as he showed in The Everest when he was edged out by Bella Nipotina in a thrilling finish. He has been kept fresh for the Champions Sprint and his return clash with Bella Nipotina. Giga Kick is a winner up the straight at Flemington but his rival has never won on the track. This is Giga Kick’s chance to return to winning form.

VALUE BET
Race 5 No.6 QUICKSTER is an underrated mare who won at stakes level last season and her two runs this spring have been promising. She loomed up to win the Group 3 Angst Stakes at Randwick last start only to be ambushed late by Lekvarte. Quickster will appreciate the step up to 2000m, she’s drawn to get the right run and is good each way value around $8.

THE WHISPER
Race 7 No.13 BROADSIDING won his third Group 1 when he scored first-up in the Golden Rose then had excuses when he ran fourth in the Caulfield Guineas. Godolphin gave Broadsiding his chance in the Cox Plate and although Via Sistina was in a race of her own, the three-year-old colt ran on strongly for third. Broadsiding has to come back to 1600m but he will appreciate the big Flemington track and he only has 52kg at weight-for-age. Broadsiding is an outstanding three-year-old and he will go close in the Champions Mile.

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ROSEHILL GARDENS TIPS

THE BEST BET
Race 2 No.1 CONFESS OUR DREAMS settled on speed and was always in control as she scored a comfortable win at Warwick Farm when shouldering 61kg. She’s won four of her eight starts and is right at her peak after three runs from a spell. Confess Our Dreams does meet Angel Fund worse at the weights for beating that horse by less than a half-length but the 1100m suits and she can win again.

THE NEXT BEST
Race 4 No.5 KADAVAR is working his way back into form as he demonstrated last start when he ran on for second behind the in-form State Of America at Warwick Farm. The winner has since won easily in Saturday class to frank the form. Kadavar is fitter for recent racing and is out to his right distance range today. He’s ready to win.

VALUE BET
Race 8 No.12 FREEDOM RALLY was doing his best work on the line as he closed late for third to Iknowastar in the Five Diamonds Prelude over 1500m at Randwick. The step up to 1800m won’t be an issue and he is striking top form at just the right time. He’s good value at $19 for the Five Diamonds.

THE WHISPER
Race 6 No.2 NORTH ENGLAND was taken to the lead in the Breeders Plate, kicked clear over the rise and was only collared in the final few bounds when a brave third to King Kirk last month. Trainers Gai Waterouse and Adrian Bott gave North England a barrier trial at Hawkesbury between runs where he was three-wide facing the breeze but was still too good for his rivals, winning in fast time. He’s a classy colt and the one to beat in the Golden Gift.

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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

FLEMINGTON
Race 1: Angland $4-$3, Nation’s Call $6.50-$5 including a bet of $1000 e/w at $5/$2, Tijuana $18-$13
Race 2: Chisholm $6-$4, Bubion $8.50-$5.50, Leave No Doubt $18-$10
Race 3: Serpentine $5-$4.20, Amade $10-$8
Race 4: Nadal $3.80-$3.60, Rey Magnerio $5.50-$4.40, Front Page $5.50-$4.80
Race 5: Hinged $4.40-$3.50, Firestorm $5.50-$5, Quickster $10-$8
Race 6: Bella Nipotina $4-$3.90-$4.60, Giga Kick $4.40-$4.20-$4.80 after bets of $5000 at $4.40, $4000 at $4.20, Overpass $7.50-$5.50 with a bet of $1000 e/w at $7.50/$2.50, Sunshine In Paris $7-$6.50, Baraqiel $11-$9.50
Race 7: Pride Of Jenni $5.50-$4 with a bet of $6000 at $5, Antino $7-$6, Mr Brightside $5-$6, Fangirl $8-$7, Another Wil $15-$10
Race 8: Via Sistina $1.65-$1.50 after bets of $6000 at $1.70, $4000 at $1.70 multiple times, $3000 at $1.70, $2850 at $1.70, Atishu $9-$8.50 with a bet of $2000 place at $2.10, Without A Fight $15-$11
Race 9: Pisanello $4.60-$3 after a bet of $2500 at $3.10, Trapeze Warrior $7.50-$7

• EXPERT TIPS: Cameron Happ’s best bets for 2024 Champions Day at Flemington on Saturday

ROSEHILL GARDENS
Race 1: Lady Ichikawa $8-$4, Putt For Dough $8-$7.50, Direct Fire $15-$10
Race 2: Confess Our Dreams $2.30-$2.15 with a bet of $2400 at $2.10, Passeggiata $6-$5, Not That Easy $26-$16
Race 3: Atmospheric Rock $4.60-$3.80
Race 4: Hiawatha $11-$6, Misterkipchoge $8-$6.50
Race 5: Gilded Water $8-$4.20, Modesty $8-$6, Concello $26-$14
Race 6: Icarian Dream $8-$6.50, West Of Swindon $11-$7, Chicama $26-$16, Extractor $26-$17
Race 7: Magic Time $2.80-$2.30, Belclare $3.60-$3.50
Race 8: Territory Express $8-$4.20, Yellow Brick $11-$7.50
Race 9: Fire Star $3.60-$2.80, Iron Man $4.60-$4.20
Race 10: Chica Mojito $6-$5, Need Some Luck $6-$5.50, Congregation $15-$8.50, Rapbidash $11-$9

• Tips from the big bookies for Flemington and Rosehill

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DOOMBEN BEST BETS
Race 1 No.6 CANOODLING
Race 10 No.7 HELL

• DOOMBEN EXPERT TIPS: Graeme Carey’s best bets, race-by-race tips and analysis for Doomben

MORPHETTVILLE BEST BETS
Race 3 No.3 SPIRIT OF CAMELOT
Race 7 No.4 ZANTHRON

• MORPHETTVILLE, ASCOT EXPERT TIPS: $15 value play from Heath Pope, three top picks from Aaron Mills

WYONG BEST BETS
Race 2 No.2 MANUSCRIPT
Race 3 No.10 CANDLEWICK

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Tips, inside mail, track conditions and market movers for 2024 Champions Day at Flemington and Five Diamonds Day at Rosehill

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Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/tips/the-last-say-tips-inside-mail-track-conditions-and-market-movers-for-2024-champions-day-at-flemington-and-five-diamonds-day-at-rosehill/news-story/312bc0ae7d8062c103db7f46dfa2a6d8