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THE LAST SAY: Flemington downgraded after heavy rain; ‘noise’ about Epsom roughies

A patch of heavy rain has seen Flemington downgraded from a Good (4) to a Soft (6) surface for Turnbull Stakes Day as Ray Thomas gives us the inside mail on some well-liked Epsom roughies at Royal Randwick.

Ray Thomas
7 min read
October 5, 2024 - 3:45PM
Hold All Tickets - Punters (Episode 6) 05-10-24

A patch of heavy rain has seen the Flemington track downgraded from a Good (4) to a Soft (6) following the conclusion of race four on Turnbull Stakes Day.

Racing Victoria stewards announced the downgrade at 2.18pm, shortly after Too Darn Secret finished over the top of Declichy Boulevard to win the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes.

The highlight of the Flemington meeting is the Group 1 $750,000 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) where the likes of Via Sistina, Buckaroo, Eliyass, Warmonger and Huetor will clash.

At Royal Randwick, Epsom Day – one of Sydney’s iconic spring carnival race meetings – boasts a blockbuster program with three Group 1 races and some outstanding support races.

The $1.5 million Epsom over the famous Randwick mile (1600m) course has a full field of 20 and although the race probably lacks some topliners, it is a typically open race.

Bookies are currently offering $5 the field, with the Joe Pride-trained Ceolwulf firming to favouritism.

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There’s some “noise’’ about a couple of the Epsom outsiders, Kintyre and Major Beel, at each way odds.

Kintyre ($26) is a Frank Packer Plate winner over the Randwick 2000m course earlier this year so he will run a strong 1600m. He’s been unlucky in two of the traditional Epsom lead-up races this spring and gets into the big race on the 50kg limit. He’s great value at $26.

• Ray and Duff’s Randwick tips, race-by-race analysis

Major Beel won the ATC Australian Derby at 2400m here last year and although he struggled at times last season, his two runs this spring indicates he has again found form. He led all-the-way to win first-up then went to weight-for-age and ran very well for a close fifth behind Fangirl in the 7 Stakes.

For a Derby winner, Major Beel ($11) looks very well-weighted in the Epsom with 51.5kg and he might get control of the tempo up front today.

Trainer Chris Waller is aiming for a sixth win in the $750,000 The Metropolitan (2400m) and he has six very good chances including Unusual Legacy, the $4.80 favourite, who looks so well-weighted on 50kg.

• RANDWICK EXPERT TIPS: James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis

The Waller stable was forced to withdraw Autumn Glow from the $750,000 Flight Stakes with a knee injury but the trainer still has strong chances in the fillies classic with Lady Shenandoah and Lazzura.

But the potential scene-stealer on Epsom Day is the Group 2 $1 million Premiere Stakes (1200m) which features the clash of the past two Everest champions, Giga Kick (2022) and Think About It (2023), and the “iron lady” of Australian racing, Bella Nipotina.

To cap a compelling Randwick program, the two-year-olds make their season debuts in the Breeders Plate and Gimcrack Stakes, both 1000m scampers at Group 3 level with $250,000 prizemoney.

• FLEMINGTON EXPERT TIPS: Mark Guest’s race-by-race tips, analysis and quaddie picks

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ROYAL RANDWICK
Weather: Warm, sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 26c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: Out 3m entire

FLEMINGTON
Weather: Cool, overcast day with showers and the chance of a thunderstorm with a forecast top temperature of 19c.
Track: Soft (6) – downgraded from Good (4) at 2.18pm
Rail: Out 9m entire

DOOMBEN
Weather: Warm, sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 31c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: Out 4m entire

MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Cool, overcast day with showers and a forecast top temperature of 19c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: True

• MORPHETTVILLE, KALGOORLIE EXPERT TIPS: Heath Pope and Aaron Mills’ best bets for SA and WA

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

BE WARY
The Randwick rail position has shifted out 3m but the track is in the good range and should race truly. Flemington’s rail is out 9m and with rain forecast, there is every chance jockeys will look to get out wider in the straight.

• LAURIE’S LONGSHOTS: Sainsbury keen on $14 value chance

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ROYAL RANDWICK

THE BEST BET
CHICA MOJITO (Race 5 No.12) ran a blinder when resuming at Rosehill three weeks ago. She was held up for a few strides at the top of the straight then switched back to the inside and charged home near the rail to just miss behind Firestorm. The form has been franked with Firestorm winning again last week and is lining up in the Epsom Handicap. Trainer Chris Waller has found the ideal race for Chica Mojito, a stakes placegetter last season, who will appreciate the Randwick mile course and gets in with only 52kg. She’s the one to beat.

THE NEXT BEST
SNOW IN MAY (Race 6 No.2) won her first two starts then ran into the outstanding Autumn Glow in the Group 2 Tea Rose Stakes. Snow In May came from last on the turn and ran on strongly without threatening the winner. She goes third-up into the Flight Stakes, is suited by going out to 1600m and the scratching of Autumn Glow gives her an undeniable opportunity to win a Group 1 race at just her fourth start.

VALUE BET
KINTYRE (Race 9 No.18) won the Frank Packer Plate over 2000m here and the Queensland Guineas at 1600m last season. He has been unplaced in two runs this spring but both have been very good efforts devoid of luck. At his most recent start, Kintyre was three wide without cover throughout the Bill Ritchie Handicap and still loomed up as a winning chance half-way down the straight before finishing fourth to McHale. He drops to 50kg, drawn to get the right run and is over the odds at $26.

THE WHISPER
UNUSUAL LEGACY (Race 8 No.21) was third emergency for The Metropolitan but has gained a start. The Chris Waller-trained Usual Legacy goes to the Group 1 staying test after his closing second under 58kg over 1900m at Rosehill last week. He drops 8kg and is drawn to get the run of the race. Although he’s lightly-raced and has never been to 2400m, he gives every indication of staying the trip out strongly.

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FLEMINGTON

THE BEST BET
FIRST SETTLER (Race 5 No.4) won his first two starts during winter impressively then resumed in the Poseidon Stakes and made boom colt Growing Empire work to beat him. First Settler made a strong surge inside the final 200m but might have peaked on his run near the line. Growing Empire has since been narrowly beaten in a Group 1 Manikato Stakes against older horses to underline the strength of the form. First Settler will be improved by that recent run and the experience of his first time down the Flemington straight will stand him in good stead for the Danehill Stakes.

NEXT BEST
VIA SISTINA (Race 8 No.4) resumed with a brilliant win over Zougotcha and Fangirl in the Group 1 Winx Stakes but then wasn’t at her best when fifth to Mr Brightside in the Makybe Diva Stakes. She didn’t seem to stretch out like normal under pressure with trainer Chris Waller believing it was due to the slippery track conditions. Via Sistina is an outstanding mare at her best and the Turnbull Stakes set-up suits here. She can bounce back.

VALUE BET
TIZ INVINCIBLE (Race 10 No.2) was ridden conservatively early, went back to the rear of the field and couldn’t get into the contest when resuming, finishing sixth behind Sunshine In Paris in the Sheraco Stakes. Tiz Invincible had trialled well going into the Sheraco and will be improved by the run. A dual Group 2 winner last season, she finds herself in a much easier race at Flemington and is at generous odds of $19. She’s a very good each way chance.

THE WHISPER
MOBY DICK (Race 1 No.5) resumed with a brilliant effort over the Flemington 1100m course when he unleashed from back in the field and stormed home to beat the smart Headwall and Baraqiel. The form from this race has stood up with Baraqiel winning at The Valley last start. Moby Dick has won three of his five starts and romped home second-up last preparation. Promising sprinter and can win again.

• BIG BETS: Punters tipping Maher runner to book Melbourne Cup start with big performance today

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TAB FIXED ODDS, BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1: No big bets
Race 2: King Kirk $5-$4.20, Tempestuous $11-$8, Valedictorian $51-$31
Race 3: Bellazaine $11-$9
Race 4: Swiftfalcon $4.60-$3.20 with a bet of $1085 e/w at $4/$1.65, Depth Of Character $11-$7.50
Race 5: Chica Mojito $4.60-$3.40, Floating $6-$5.50, St Lawrence $15-$9
Race 6: Snow In May $8-$7-$2.70 (after the scratching of Autumn Glow) including a bet of $2000 at $8,
Race 7: Giga Kick $2.30-$2.60-$2.40, Bella Nipotina $2.80-$3-$2.90-$2.80, Think About It $4.60-$4
Race 8: Unusual Legacy $8-$6 with a bet of $2200 at $6
Race 9: Ceolwulf $7.50-$6-$5 after some big bets of $5000 at $6 and $2125 e/w at $7/$2.25, Tom Kitten $13-$10, Chrysaor $34-$17 with a bet of $1250 e/w at $34/$9.25
Race 10: Ostraka $3.50-$3.30, Briasa $4.40-$4

• Tips from the big bookies: Epsom Handicap and Turnbull Stakes Day

FLEMINGTON
Race 1: Moby Dick $2.90-$2.15, Wolfy $6-$5.50
Race 2: Rumble Town $4.20-$3.90, Price Tag $4.80-$4.40 with a bet of $3000 at $4.40, Odessa $10-$7.50 with a bet of $3000 at $7.50
Race 3: Sergeant Major $3.80-$2.80 including a bet of $2500 at $3
Race 4: Declichy Boulevard $3.20-$2.30
Race 5: First Settler $4.40-$3.90, Reserve Bank $4.80-$4.20
Race 6: Royal Champion $5-$4.60, Jigsaw $7.50-$6.50 after a bet of $2000 at $5.50, It’sourtime $10-$8, Comrade Rosa $13-$9
Race 7: Berkshire Breeze $5-$4 with bets of $2250 at $4.20, $2000 at $4.20, Saint George $7.50-$6.50, Positivity $17-$13
Race 8: Buckaroo $5-$4.20 with a bet of $2000 at $4.20, Young Werther $15-$9
Race 9: Magic Time $5-$4.60, Sghirripa $8-$6, Arkansaw Kid $7-$6.50, Right To Party $8.50-$6.50, Stretan Angel $11-$8, Johnny Rocker $10-$8
Race 10: Skybird $4-$3.80, Revolutionary Miss $6-$5.50, Poifect $8.50-$7.00, Miss Aria $9-$7.50, Running By $11-$9

• Cameron Happ’s best bets for Flemington on Saturday

INTERSTATE MAIL
Doomben Race 2 No.12 REDFORD
Doomben Race 6 No.3 COUNTYOURBLESSINGS
Morphettville Race 4 No.3 LONGER ROUTE
Morphettville Race 6 No.1 CHAKADO

PROVINCIAL MAIL
Newcastle Race 2 No.3 INOUE
Newcastle Race 8 No.10 RIP OFF

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Flemington downgraded after heavy rain; ‘noise’ about Epsom roughies

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Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/tips/the-last-say-noise-about-2024-epsom-handicap-roughies-2024-turnbull-stakes-showdown-excites/news-story/36be94c9562c78a43de81c917014eb2a