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THE LAST SAY: Best bets, inside mail for 2024 Melbourne Cup, Big Dance Day

Tips, market movers, inside mail … Ray Thomas gives you all the information you need to back a winner at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day, and also at Royal Randwick for Big Dance Day.

Ray Thomas
5 min read
November 5, 2024 - 9:31AM
Hold All Tickets 2024 Melbourne Cup Runner-by-Runner preview

Irish stayer Vauban and local star Buckaroo are $7 equal favourites for the $8.5 million Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington today.

Vauban and Buckaroo have been swapping places at the top of betting since Saturday night’s barrier draw.

But there is an expectation that Vauban, who ran 14th as favourite in Without A Fight’s Melbourne Cup last year, will be the market-elect come race time at 3pm (AEDT). He returns to Flemington in very good form after a solid year in the northern hemisphere including his win in the Lonsdale Cup before a last-start second to champion Kyprios in the Irish St Leger.

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

Buckaroo is considered a slight risk at 3200m but he is the class horse of the field after an outstanding spring that has yielded weight-for-age wins in the Chelmsford Stakes and Underwood Stakes, a narrow loss to Cox Plate heroine Via Sistina in the Turnbull Stakes before he ran on strongly in wet conditions to run second in the Caulfield Cup.

The Melbourne Cup field was reduced to 23 after the scratching of Sydney stayer Athabascan late on Cup Eve on veterinary advice.

At Royal Randwick, the $3 million Big Dance (1600m) field is intact with only the four emergencies scratched.

The Ciaron Maher-trained Gringotts has to start from barrier 19 but that hasn’t stopped punters who have backed the consistent miler into $3.90 favouritism ahead of Tavi Time at $4.80 with topweight Here To Shock out to backable odds of $5.50.

• EXPERT TIPS: Mark Guest’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

FLEMINGTON
Weather: Warm, sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 26c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: 2m out entire

ROYAL RANDWICK
Weather: Mild, cloudy with a forecast top temperature of 23c.
Track: Soft (5)
Rail: True

EAGLE FARM
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day and a forecast top temperature of 32c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: 8m out entire

MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Warm, cloudy day and a forecast top temperature of 28c.
Track: Good (4)
Rail: 12m out entire 1200m to winning post, 9m remainder

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

BE WARY
Flemington’s rail has been moved out 2m for Cup Day after being in the true last Saturday.

• $101 Melbourne Cup roughie ‘is this year’s Sheraz’: Waller

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

FLEMINGTON

THE BEST BET
WARNIE (Race 10 No.12) can send punters home a winner in the last on Cup Day. The promising Warnie has won three of his five starts including an impressive comeback win at Flemington a month ago when he finished powerfully to score over 1200m. The step up to 1400m suits, he’s drawn well and has found himself in a winnable race.

NEXT BEST
ABSURDE (Race 7 No.9) is having a second crack at the Melbourne Cup after finishing seventh last year. He loomed as a winning chance at the 400m before fading late when seventh to Without A Fight in that Cup. The Irish stayer returns after a solid year including his convincing win in the Chester Stakes last start, beating a good field. Trained by Willie Mullins, Absurde will be better for the experience of 12 months ago, he gets in a half kilo lighter with 52.5kg, champion jockey Kerrin McEvoy takes the mount and is aiming for his fourth Melbourne Cup win, and the likelihood is they will adopt more conservative riding tactics today.

VALUE BET
TIZ INVINCIBLE (Race 9 No.2) has been struggling for 12 months to recapture her good three-year-old spring form that included Group 2 wins in the Furious Stakes and Tea Rose Stakes. She has been improved by three runs from a spell and there were some encouraging signs at Caulfield last start when fifth in the Tristarc Stakes. On her best form, she would win this race and her odds of $14 is generous.

THE WHISPER
EXTREMELY HARDYS (Race 8 No.5) is unbeaten in two starts including her first-up effort at Kensington when she led throughout to beat the handy Seascape. Promising filly held in high regard by the all powerful Chris Waller stable who was scratched from Derby Day and saved for this race. Drawn to get the run of the race and there is some real confidence about her chances.

• EXPERT TIPS: Cameron Happ’s best bets for Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

ROYAL RANDWICK

THE BEST BET
FLYING BANDIT (Race 1 No.1) appreciated getting out to 2000m at Hawkesbury, settling on speed then forging clear to win comfortably. He’s won three of his seven starts (and two seconds) and is a promising four-year-old. Flying Bandit can get favourite backers off to a winning start on Cup Day.

THE NEXT BEST
GALLANT STAR (Race 6 No.6) is a talented bush sprinter who ran second in the Country Championships Final earlier this year. He resumed with a good win at Dubbo then ran an even sixth to Far Too Easy in The Kosciuszko. Gallant Star is very consistent and good enough to overcome the wide draw.

VALUE BET
BOJANGLES (Race 9 No.5) is a smart sprinter resuming but he always goes well fresh. He has won first-up his last two preparations but both wins were over 1100m. He might not be as well suited at 1000m but there is plenty of speed in this race and he will be closing fast. Bojangles is about $5 in latest TAB Fixed Odds betting which is still good value.

THE WHISPER
ISLAND DEC (Race 4 No.10) won her first two starts very impressively then got caught in an awkward spot at the top of the straight before running on late for eighth, beaten just over a length at Randwick in the Reginald Allen Quality. The winner, Aeliana has since won the Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington to frank the form. Island Dec is very promising and is set to bounce back.

• EXPERT TIPS: Greg Polson’s race-by-race tips and rated prices for Big Dance Day at Royal Randwick, plus Kembla Grange

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

MELBOURNE CUP TAB BETS OF NOTE
$10,700 on Onesmoothoperator to win at $9
$10,000 on Buckaroo to place at $2.80
$10,000 on Zardozi to place at $4.80
$9600 on Land Legend to place at $5
$9000 on Absurde to win at $11
$7500 on Land Legend to win at $17
$6000 on Vauban to win at $6
$5000 on Land Legend to win at $13
$5000 on Just Fine to win at $51
$4000 on Absurde to win at $11
$3000 on Absurde to win at $11
$3000 on Onesmoothoperator to win at $8
$3000 on Just Fine to win at $26
$2300 on Vauban to win at $8
$2020 on Buckaroo to win at $6
$2000 on Okita Soushi to win at $21
$2000 on Buckaroo to win at $5
$2000 on Vauban to win at $8
$2000 at on Land Legend to win at $21
$2000 on Absurde to win at $15
$2000 on Onesmoothoperator to win at $6
$2000 on Circle Of Life to win at $34
$2000 on Zardozi to win at $12

• Star jockey insists Vauban has the best form in Melbourne Cup

MELBOURNE CUP ODDS AND % HOLD OF TAB MARKET
$7 Vauban, 10.3% of the TAB hold
$7 Buckaroo (was $5), 7.2%
$8.50 Onesmoothoperator (was $9), 10.4%
$10 Absurde (was $11), 7.1%
$11 Zardozi (was $21), 8.2%
$12 Land Legend (was $13), 5.9%
$13 Okita Soushi (was $23), 8.9%
$13 Sea King (was $10), 4.4%
$19 Intrepretation (was $15), 4.4%
$23 Kovalica (was $21), 3.3%
$26 Warp Speed (was $34), 3.2%
$26 Saint George (was $34), 3.5%
$34 Circle Of Fire (was $26), 4%
$34 Sharp ‘n’ Smart (was $71), 2.3%
$51 Just Fine (was $34), 3.6%
$51 The Map (was $34), 2.6%
$61 Athabascan (was $51), 1.6%
$81 Mostly Cloudy (was $101) 1.5%
$101 Knight’s Choice 1.2%
$101 Valiant King (was $51) 1.4%
$101 Fancy Man (was $71) 1.4%
$101 Manzoice (was $51) 0.8%
$101 Positivity 1.4%
$101 Trust In You 1.2%

• Hungry for history: Zahra refuses to waste chance at Cup three-peat

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

EAGLE FARM BEST BETS
Race 2 No.11 AUTORA
Race 9 No.12 YOU KAY SQUEEZE

MORPHETTVILLE BEST BETS
Race 1 No.7 RECIPROCAL
Race 9 No.3 THE JOURNO

KEMBLA GRANGE BEST BETS
Race 5 No.4 IOWNA BENZ
Race 9 No.5 TRUE AMOR

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Best bets, inside mail for 2024 Melbourne Cup, Big Dance Day

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Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/tips/the-last-say-best-bets-inside-mail-for-2024-melbourne-cup-big-dance-day/news-story/d194f2001a299ea2723d2297c5ecdd07