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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Day of 1 The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday

Ron Dufficy thinks a talented filly can beat the boys in Saturday’s Group 1 Australian Derby. Get Duff and Ray Thomas’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Day 1 of The Championships at Royal Randwick.

Ray Thomas
8 min read
April 4, 2025 - 10:26AM
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Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy analyse all 10 races on Doncaster-Derby Day on Day One of The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.
Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.

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• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Randwick on Saturday

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DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 9 No.18 AELIANA

DUFF’S BEST VALUE
Race 7 No.8 MAGIC TIME

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RACE 1: Kindergarten Stakes (1100m)

Ron Dufficy: This is a tricky race but I am leaning to KING OF POP (2). I just feel it was a total forgive out of the Golden Slipper given the barrier and the run he had. I’m happy to give him another chance. NORTH ENGLAND (1) had a setback earlier this preparation so he may have been one run behind so back to 1100m is acceptable for him. BESKAR (6) was an easy maiden winner at short odds last preparation and he looked sharp in a recent Sydney barrier trial. Strada Varenna is back to 1100m and she is very fast.

Ray Thomas: NORTH ENGLAND (1) didn’t have the ideal preparation for the Golden Slipper and still ran a brave race for sixth. I also think going back to 1100m is to his advantage. STRADA VARENNA (9) is very fast and the 1100m is also more suitable. KING OF POP (2) is a talented colt and I’m also wary of BESKAR (6).

• Laurie Sainsbury’s $26 tip for The Championships at Royal Randwick

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RACE 2: Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m)

Dufficy: POLYMNIA (9) has a strong 1800m win under her belt, she brings different formlines and I suspect she will be hard to beat. Out of the Kembla race I like INEVITABLE TRUTH (2). I know she is still a maiden but she has been just nudged out in both runs this autumn. YOU WAHNG (5) is a nice staying type who might have something to offer. EXCLUSIVE ARTIST (14) also comes out of a good provincial win.

Thomas: I’ve also found POLYMNIA (9). She was very good when she got out to 1800m at Hawkesbury and the 2000m is ideal for her. DOMINETTA (1) had to do a lot of work from a wide barrier and her effort at Kembla was good. The problem for her is the draw again. INEVITABLE TRUTH (2) continues to improve with racing and will stay a strong 2000m. SWELTER (7) is on the rise and has each way claims.

• Racing Confidential: Doncaster deserves Grand Slam status

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RACE 3: Chairman’s Quality (2600m)

Dufficy: I’ve always liked WALTHAM (7). He got his confidence up winning a weak race in Queensland last start, he stays really well and he can make a statement here. ALALCANCE (3) is a tough mare and hard to knock after her dominant last start win. ATHABASCAN (2) is ticking off nicely for the Sydney Cup. BIRDMAN (12) has been looming up and floating a bit so the blinkers might help him.

Thomas: ALALCANCE (3) was so impressive in the Manion Cup, dominating from the front and she looks like she will stay all day. She’s creeping up in the weights but is still the one to beat. I also like the look of WALTHAM (7) who is over the odds. ATHABASCAN (2) is a tough stayer and he finishing strongly. DESERT HERO (1) is from the William Haggas stable so what for betting moves.

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RACE 4: Carbine Club Stakes (1600m)

Dufficy: A lovely race for SWIFTFALCON (2). He’s had excuses in all three runs back at the top level but I wish there was a touch more speed up front. This might give EVAPORATE (1) more of an advantage riding the speed and his form is very strong. SHANGRI LA SPRING (5) toughed it out well in the Canberra Guineas first-up, he’s had a lovely tick-over trial, is the only leader and might be hard to catch. BRIGIDINE GAL (8) is suited back to a mile and gets her blinkers on

Thomas: SWIFTFALCON (2) is in great form and deserves to win after placings in the Hobartville Stakes, Randwick Guineas and Rosehill Guineas. He’s a backmarker with brilliant closing speed so his big danger is a lack of tempo. SHANGRI LA SPRING (5) was very good when resuming at Canberra and he will be in front of Swiftfalcon for a long way. We’ve got the same top four as I also have EVAPORATE (1) and BRIGIDINE GAL (8) in my numbers.

• Randwick Turf Talk: ‘Everest slot holders already on the blower’

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RACE 5: Country Championships Final (1200m)

Dufficy: It’s hard to tip against GALLANT STAR (1). He’s nice, progressive horse who had to be hard to beat from the draw. He’s adaptable, has great Randwick form with a second in this race last year, then a fourth in The Kosciuszko and a win in the Barn Dance so he has all the form you want. KNOW THYSELF (7) was a dominant second-up winner and he has plenty of depth to his form. FUKUBANA (8) is going to be stronger than most late. INTERVARSITY (14) is lightly raced but has been kept fresh since winning at Tamworth and is quite capable.

Thomas: You raised a valid point about GALLANT STAR (1), Ron, and that is his adaptability. He was a shock leader in his Coonamble Qualifier when he monstered his rivals. But he is just as dynamic coming from off speed as he demonstrated winning the Barn Dance last spring. He’s the one to beat. KNOW THYSELF (7) was back to his best in the Wild Card at Scone and will be very competitive. LISZTOMANIA (9) never runs a bad race and INTERVARSITY (14) could not have been more impressive winning the Tamworth qualifier.

• ‘I know what Bossy means now’: Berry not taking Group 1 success for granted

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RACE 6: Inglis Sires (1400m)

Dufficy: I’m leaning to RIVELLINO (1), Ray. He’s a quiet achiever and I feel he was unlucky in the Golden Slipper when he didn’t get the rub of the green. This track and distance suits him better. WODETON (2) is a good colt but he needs plenty to go right from the wide draw. VINROCK (3) is the great unknown but I love his racing style and he will be in the box seat from barrier one. BELLAZAINE (10) going to 1400m is a stretch but if she is left alone in front should could give a big kick here.

Thomas: I’ve also got RIVELLINO (1) on top from WODETON (2). I just feel Rivellino will get the right run stalking the leaders and Wodeton is going to be giving him a start from the turn. They are top class colts and this will be an exciting watch. FEDERALIST (9) is at big odds but he was desperately unlucky on debut at Newcastle, he has a big pedigree and is in the right stable. VINROCK (3) races on speed and gives himself every chance.

• ‘Best 2yo I’ve had’: Lees pays Rivellino the ultimate compliment

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RACE 7: TJ Smith Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: I think MAGIC TIME (8) is great odds, she is airborne at the moment. She’s had a month between runs and a trial, hopefully she can hold this draw and gets on the back of Overpass, she will be hard to beat. JOLIESTAR (7) is a fantastic mare off a dominant second-up Newmarket Handicap win and she is right in this race. JIMMYSSTAR (2) was tremendous first-up then ran into a horrible track at Moonee Valley which cost him. He will enjoy the Randwick 1200m. OVERPASS (1) has to go in because of the tempo of this race and he’s an amazing horse. I’ve left out BRIASA (5) because of the price factor and going to weigh-for-age for the first time.

Thomas: I take your point about BRIASA (5) but I am going to take the punt on the grey. His run in The Galaxy to finish fourth was outstanding and his closing sectionals were off the charts. He’s a huge talent and is ready for his big test. JOLIESTAR (7) is a brilliant mare, the deserved favourite and the one to beat. SUNSHINE IN PARIS (6) has drawn awkwardly again but is good enough to be in the finish. HEADWALL (4) ran second to Joliestar in the Newmarket and is way over the odds.

• Jett Hatton’s TJ Smith Stakes runner-by-runner form analysis and tips

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RACE 8: Doncaster Mile (1600m)

Dufficy: I’ve ended up with TOM KITTEN (3). He has been set for this, he had a perfect lead-up run in the Ryder, and he just needs to find clear running at the right time from that inside draw and he will be hard to hold out. ANOTHER WIL (1) is a class horse who was great in the Orr Stakes, then unlucky in the All Star Mile and that has to be good form for this race. LINEBACKER (20) sets up beautifully as he has beaten the handicapper and will be hard to hold out. GRINGOTTS (2) has a great racing style, loves the mile and gets the right run from his good draw.

Thomas: GRINGOTTS (2) won the Big Dance over the Randwick mile and The Gong last spring and has returned in even better form as he demonstrated winning the George Ryder Stakes last start. He drops 3.5kg, drawn perfectly in barrier six, and will be very hard to beat. FIRESTORM (19) has elite closing speed and is a terrific lightweight chance. TOM KITTEN (3) has never been in better form and LINEBACKER (20) has to be in the mix.

• Clinton Payne’s Doncaster Mile runner-by-runner form analysis and tips

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RACE 9: ATC Australian Derby (2400m)

Dufficy: I’m very keen on the filly AELIANA (18). I like the races she is coming out of, I like the timing of her preparation, and all she has to do is relax, hold her position then present and she has this race at her mercy. The one to beat is PLYMOUTH (5). He was very good in the Rosehill Guineas and that is the form for this race. KING OF THUNDER (8) off the quick back-up after being good on Tuesday and SHANWAH (4) is racing in great form.

Thomas: AELIANA (18) is the only filly in the Derby field but I also have her on top. She’s a special talent and is bursting to win a Group 1 race. This is her chance. KING OF THUNDER (8) was doing his best work on the line when third on Tuesday and going to 2400m is no issue. WILLYDOIT (1) won the New Zealand Derby impressively and SHANWAH (4) has reeled off four wins in succession.

• Clinton Payne’s Australian Derby runner-by-runner form analysis and tips

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RACE 10: PJ Bell Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: I think CLEAN ENERGY (1) is short enough in a competitive race but it was just a huge win against the bias at Moonee Valley last start. She did beat Lady Shenandoah last season, too. LOVE POEM (5) did early work to sit outside the lead and was very good winning first-up. She has nice form around Alabama Lass who won in Melbourne last week. SHE’S GOT PIZZAZZ (4) is from the Moody stable and I respect them when they come to Sydney as they usually brng the right horse. LILAC (3) has been freshened since the Surround Stakes and there is good depth to her form.

Thomas: CLEAN ENERGY (1) is the one to beat for all the reasons you mentioned, Ron. She’s a very classy filly. LILAC (3) is talented and her recent form reads well for this race. SHE’S GOT PIZZAZZ (4) is at her peak after two runs from a spell and ZEITUNG (2) is a big improver.

• Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Day 1 of The Championships at Royal Randwick

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Day of 1 The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday

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Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/tips/ray-thomas-and-ron-dufficys-racebyrace-tips-analysis-for-day-of-1-the-championships-at-royal-randwick-on-saturday/news-story/188e8e2b586364ec126fab0f84e5aa9b