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Ray and Duff’s The Everest day race-by-race tips, analysis for Royal Randwick

Ron Dufficy thinks the ‘best weighted horse on the program’ can get the cash in an early race on The Everest Day at Royal Randwick on Saturday. Get tips and analysis from Duff and Ray Thomas.

Ray Thomas
10 min read
October 18, 2024 - 12:03PM
Ron Dufficy has made Hinged, ‘the best weighted horse on the program’, his best bet for The Everest Day at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
Ron Dufficy has made Hinged, ‘the best weighted horse on the program’, his best bet for The Everest Day at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the chances in all 10 races on a bumper The Everest meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

• EXPERT TIPS: James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Everest Day

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DUFF’S TIPS

BEST BET
Race 4 No.5 HINGED

BEST VALUE
Race 3 No.10 JELLICIOUS

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

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RACE 1: GROUP 3 ST LEGER STAKES (2600m)

Ron Dufficy: I like ALEGRON (2) here. He found trouble and had more than a little bit to offer in the Metropolitan down the straight so he’s right now and I think he’s quite likeable. I am terrified of WALTHAM (8). I know he is only a Benchmark 74 horse and under normal circumstances, no, but I am sure he’s got something after finding plenty of trouble last time. TRUST IN YOU (5), the Kiwi, is primed up now after a strong staying effort and the other one is STOCKMAN (4). He’s needed a few runs, he finds his preferred softer track and it is a race he could jump up out of the ground in.’’

Ray Thomas: I’m hoping to get the day off to a winning start with TRUST IN YOU (5). He was strong at the end of 2400m to just miss third in The Metropolitan and going to 2600m is ideal. Strong stayer and will go close. ALEGRON (2) needs to improve but he did win the Brisbane Cup at 3200m earlier this year. ATHABASCAN (3) hasn’t fired in three runs from a spell but he’s a good stayer worth another chance. ETNA ROSSO (6) has raced well all spring and stays under notice after his close fifth in The Metropolitan.

• The special bond that led Jamie Kah to her first The Everest

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RACE 2: BIG DANCE WILD CARD (1600m)

Dufficy: Tricky race. I think BERKSHIRE SHADOW (1) has got the right form, he just has to cope with the big weight and is hopefully possibly closer with a cleaner start than he had last time. DUCASSE (3) can be hard to catch but was very good after being caught wide from a sticky draw last time. He’s a Carbine Club Stakes winner at this track and distance. CHORLTON LANE (2) looked good early. His runs are spaced this preparation so I think he might react at his first time at a mile. THUNDERLIPS (7) is a very fit horse and could well be the best of the rest.

Thomas: CHORLTON LANE (2) had his chance in the Cameron Handicap but kept trying before finishing sixth to Here To Shock. This is an easier race and he’s the one to beat. DUCASSE (3) has taken a while to strike top form but this race sets up well and he’s ready to improve. HIGH DANDY (8) was just edged out in the Dubbo Gold Cup and is a progressive type. THUNDERLIPS (7) is racing well.

• ‘There is a little bit of nerves’: Waller keyed up for The Everest tilt

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RACE 3: GROUP 3 REGINALD ALLEN QUALITY (1400m)

Dufficy: I’m on a good longshot here in JELLICIOUS (10). I think she is a filly with a big future. Just the race wasn’t run to suit her at Canterbury first-up when she was heavily backed so I think there is more to come from her and she is worth a spec at odds. DOMINETTA (2) is the big danger. She is a nice filly, she’s impressed with a trial since a good, fighting win first-up. WINGS OF DESIRE (1) ran into dead-ends in Victoria last time and definitely has talent and deserves another chance. ISLAND DEC (4) has had a real wow factor about her two wins at Kembla, although I am not a big fan of a 1000m to 1400m.

Thomas: WINGS OF DESIRE (1), a half-sister to Winx, gets her chance to breakthrough at stakes level. She’s lightly-raced and returns to Sydney after her running well to just miss a place in the Edward Manifold Stakes. Awkwardly drawn but suited this course and distance. DOMINETTA (2) was very impressive first-up at Warwick Farm and vaults straight to stakes grade but she is very promising. AELIANA (5) and the emerging ISLAND DEC (4) will be competitive.

• Racing Confidential: US Jockey Club backs The Everest’s Group 1 status

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RACE 4: GROUP 3 ANGST STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: Best weighted horse on the program here is HINGED (5), beautifully placed with 55kg (probable weight) against this lot with the conditions of the race and she only has to be 80 per cent right to beat them. QUICKSTER (4) is the one I am wary of. She did a fantastic job charging through the classes in her first preparation. She did enough first-up, looks a target for her. LEKVARTE (1) wants the track to stay dry. Terrific run first-up, catching the eye and she should come on perfectly for this race. SOUNDS OF HEAVEN (3) warmed up beautifully through the line first-up and this distance suits her better.

Thomas: HINGED (5) hasn’t won for more than two years but during this period she has run a string of very good races at the top level including her narrow loss to the in-form Buckaroo in the Chelmsford Stakes two starts back. She finds herself perfectly placed here in a mares race, extremely well-weighted even with Blake Shinn riding her 1kg over at 55kg, and this looks her race even with her wide draw. SOUNDS OF HEAVEN (3) wasn’t beaten far first-up and is a big improver here. ZLOTIES (13) and WATCH MY GIRL (9) are both lightly-raced but talented mares.

• ‘I never dreamt I would get a horse like I Am Me’: Owners’ Dynamic Everest ride

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RACE 5: THE KOSCIUSZKO (1200m)

Dufficy: I am a FAR TOO EASY (2) fan. He’s had five weeks and a trial since unsuited at a 1000m first-up. He’s been great in this race in the past and I think he has been beautifully prepared this year and is hard to beat. FRONT PAGE (3) is his danger. Great trial behind Overpass recently so fresh is best for him. He’ll go out and do his thing. BOOM TORQUE (5) wants it to stay dry but he is an open class horse who put the writing on the wall in the Theo Marks with a great run. BANDI’S BOY (1), although he has to carry a bit of weight here, has been toughened up in three strong races and if we do go on a softish track here, it plays right into his hands.

Thomas: FRONT PAGE (3) can complete his Kosciuszko hat-trick. Brilliant sprinter who won this race first-up last year easily and ran a tick over 1m 8s. He’s been given a similar preparation this year and his trial behind Overpass at Rosehill was very good. Drawn well, handles soft tracks, dynamic fresh, gets James McDonald – what’s not to like about him? ELSON BOY (6) ran very competitively first-up in a strong form race and he’s good each way value. FAR TOO EASY (2) has been placed in this race twice and gets his chance from the rails barrier. COMPELLING TRUTH (8) has won six of his past seven starts and should be in the mix here.

• ‘I never thought of coming back’: Owen’s remarkable Kosciuszko climb

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RACE 6: GROUP 3 SYDNEY STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: Horror draw but I believe THINK ABOUT IT (2) can make a statement here after a totally forgivable run first-up. So if he gets that luck, I think he is hard to hold out. SOUTHPORT TYCOON (3) is a lovely horse. He got a brilliant ride to win the Manikato. That form has to be strong. Just has to stay fresh enough for 1200m with a couple of 1200ms under his belt. MAZU (6) is going really good this preparation and is set to give a bold sight on-speed here. OVERPASS (1) is a sharp sprinter. He was on the verge of an Everest run and he is going to be hard to catch.

Thomas: OVERPASS (1) would not have been out of place in The Everest. He’s a top class sprinter who won the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes and his second successive The Quokka at his two most recent runs. He’s resuming in a top class Sydney Stakes but the sprinter always races well fresh and his recent trials have been brilliant. AIRMAN (4) was a tough winner of the Premiere Stakes, beating a number of Everest runners, and he’s drawn to get the right run again. It all went wrong for THINK ABOUT IT (2) first-up in the Premiere but his closing sectionals were good and I think he’s going really well. The barrier (16) is the issue. MAZU (6) is flying this spring and the wetter the better for him.

• ‘I’ve seen weaker Group 1s’: Baker wary of Overpass challenge

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RACE 7: GROUP 1 THE EVEREST (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m with the three-year-old GROWING EMPIRE (9). I think he is an exciting prospect, the new kid on the block, he has a real X-factor about him. He is the real deal and is hard to beat. I think his main danger is JOLIESTAR (8). Unknown on soft tracks but she just coasted in a trial and you have got to forgive her that last run and judge her on her first-up win and she is right there here. TRAFFIC WARDEN (10) is another three-year-old who has to go in. He is highly talented and has really strengthened this preparation. I like him coming back to 1200m with a 1400m run under his belt so he will be tough late. BELLA NIPOTINA (4) speaks for herself. She’s having her 55th start and never been in better form. Anything goes.

Thomas: I’ve gone with I WISH I WIN (1). I don’t mind his barrier as he will settle in the second half of the field, hopefully with cover, and then you know he will be finishing hard. He’s been one of the nation’s best sprinters for a couple of years now and is the one to beat. SUNSHINE IN PARIS (7) is a very talented, sometimes underrated mare. Her Sheraco Stakes win was sensational and she races best when fresh. STEFI MAGNETICA (6) should have won The Shorts, she’s drawn well, can settle closer and she will be running on strongly. BELLA NIPOTINA (4) is an outstanding mare, her two runs this spring suggests she is going as well as ever and just needs luck in running from her outside barrier.

• Clinton Payne’s The Everest tips, runner-by-runner form assessment

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RACE 8: GROUP 3 SILVER EAGLE (1300m)

Dufficy: Hard to miss PORT LOCKROY (8)’s first-up run. I think he needs to run a place here to get into the Golden Eagle and he’ll go very close to doing it. I think his main danger is obviously KIMOCHI (11) who is just such an honest classy mare. Never runs bad. Bases Loaded will go better. I thought he was great in the Theo Marks and then a little flat there second-up so he’s had a little freshen-up since and we might see the best of him. VEIGHT (1), if you forget his first-up run, he’s got all the form in the world for a race like this.

Thomas: KIMOCHI (11) won the Toy Show Quality first-up then ran a blinder to finish a close fourth in Southport Tycoon’s Manikato Stakes. She returns to Randwick where she has a great record and rates as the one to beat. OSTRAKA (4) has drawn wide but he is in terrific form and could easily make it a hat-trick of wins this spring. WAR MACHINE (10) is promising and VEIGHT (1) is a Group 1 winner but has to overcome a wide draw.

• Lloyd bullish about son Zac’s chances of creating history in The Everest

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RACE 9: GROUP 1 KING CHARLES III STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: I have got to go with the great mare, PRIDE OF JENNI (9). She is so exciting and I think strap your seat-belts on, she is going to do her thing here and be hard to run down. FANGIRL (10) is the danger. She’s a champion mare in her own right and has been great in her two runs back. At her peak, target race. Chris Waller and target races is always hard to stop. CEOLWULF (6) is on his way to the top off an outstanding Epsom win. Lot harder now at WFA but don’t undersell him. CELESTIAL LEGEND (7) just hasn’t had his mind on things in two runs back. I like the way he travelled in a recent trial with those blinkers on so he could improve sharply.

Thomas: What a race. It’s going to be a fascinating tactical battle but I’ve gone with FANGIRL (10)l just from PRIDE OF JENNI (9). Fangirl has drawn well and can settle in the front half of the field and keep Pride Of Jenni in her sights. Fangirl excels at Randwick and over the 1600m course, coming off her last start win here in the 7 Stakes, and she has elite finishing speed. But Fangirl’s rider James McDonald needs to have his mare within striking distance of the lead on the turn or Pride Of Jenni will be off and gone. Pride Of Jenni is an amazing mare who gets her rivals off the bit and chasing a long way from home. CELESTIAL LEGEND (7) is a dual Group 1 winner over the Randwick mile course and the blinkers will ensure he is sharper. CEOLWULF (6) is a last start Epsom Handicap winner and has the acceleration and talent to be competitive at weight-for-age.

• Clinton Payne’s King Charles III Stakes tips, runner-by-runner form assessment

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RACE 10: BENCHMARK 88 (1400m)

Dufficy: WILLAIDOW (6) loves a fight up front. Loves to control things and he gets an opportunity to do that again here. I think a really good longshot here is BATTLETON (14). He has had too many runs at 1200m, he’s been crying out for 1400m for three starts so a spec on him at the big odds. If FRANZ JOSEF (20) sneaks into this field, he is a terrific winning chance. He’s got talent this horse and he’s had a lovely soft trial leading into this. ESTADIO MESTALLA (4) will be charging home late as he usually does.

Thomas: WILLAIDOW (6) also likes to lead and dominate in his races as he did last start with his impressive Rosehill effort. James McDonald sticks with Willaidow which is a great sign for punters. MONEY FROM THE SKY (18) raced away with the Bathurst Cup and could go right on with it here. ESTADIO MESTALLA (4) should run well and a big watch on the emerging FRANZ JOSEF (20).

Originally published as Ray and Duff’s The Everest day race-by-race tips, analysis for Royal Randwick

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