‘He’s gone to a new level’: Francesca Cumani reveals her 2024 Melbourne Cup tips

Form, experience, weight. International racing expert and Melbourne Cup ambassador Francesca Cumani says three factors point to one winner in Tuesday’s great race.

Vauban to win Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup makes a lot of sense.

Form, experience, weight.

Yes. Yes. Yes.

Sure, he started favourite in the Melbourne Cup last year and melted in the 32C conditions – he finished 14th – but the Irish stayer, trained by Willie Mullins, is far better credentialed 12 months on.

International racing expert and Melbourne Cup ambassador Francesca Cumani has Vauban and stablemate Absurde as the horses to beat on Tuesday at Flemington.

“It could be their year this year. Willie Mullins is an absolute genius,” Cumani said.

“He’s able to do phenomenal things and his owner Rich Ricci is a larger than life character. It would be great scenes if they were able to win.

“He’s (Vauban) definitely my pick of the internationals. I’m not completely off Absurde – he could still run a good race.”

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Vauban has competed five times since the Cup last year – all Group 1 or Group 2 races in England and Ireland – and finished inside the top four on each occasion.

He secured a fighting Group 2 Lonsdale Cup win two starts back and then placed second to Kyprios – the world’s best stayer – in the Group 1 Irish St Leger.

It’s a far cry compared to last year when Vauban landed in Melbourne with a seven-length Open Handicap win at the Royal Ascot carnival, plus a Group 3 success behind him.

Despite the significant form upgrade, Vauban – at $6.50 – remains on Ladbrokes’ second line of betting behind Buckaroo ($6).

Absurde, a $10 chance, finished seventh in the Cup last year.

Racing analyst Francesca Cumani.

• Melbourne Cup favourite eases in betting after horror draw

“Vauban has improved a lot. When he ran in the Yorkshire Cup (in May) I was looking at him in the parade ring and I just didn’t love him,” Cumani said.

“I was thinking there was a lot of hype about him last year and his form actually wasn’t that great when you scratched away at the surface of it.

“However, the season just gone he’s gone to a new level.

“What I loved from one York race to the next, the Yorkshire Cup at the beginning of the season and then when he won the Lonsdale Cup, physically he blew me away.

“He changed completely. He matured, put on condition, he looked well-muscled and looked like a new horse.”

You might remember this man Vauban! He wins at York over 3200m and Rich Ricci confirms the Melbourne Cup is his next target! 🏆 pic.twitter.com/7MuHCMp5Qb

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) August 23, 2024

Cumani said the experience last year with Vauban and Absurde would only benefit Mullins.

“They can learn a lot from last year,” Cumani said.

“They won’t be making the same mistakes.

“In a way it’s tempting to put a line through them the second time around if they didn’t do it, they’re not going to do it next year, but I wouldn’t be concerned about that.”

Cumani is happy Brian Ellison has a “live chance” in Geelong Cup winner Onesmoothoperator, who is currently equal with Vauban on the second line of betting.

“He’s (Ellison) tried to come a few times and had bad luck. It would be great for the team if he was able to run a good race,” Cumani said.

“The market has put him in there and I suppose when you go through the field, horses you can give a legitimate live chance to, based on their recent form, there aren’t that many.

“He’s got to be in your top 10, at least.”

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

Francesca Cumani gives her thoughts on …

VAUBAN
“He’s a quality horse, in the form of his life. He’s a big plus for me. Willie (Mullins) has his own way of doing things, he’s a bit of a wizard, but they would’ve learned a lot from last year. They’re doing a lot of work and not leaving any stone unturned.”

𝙏𝙃𝙀 best stayer in training 💪

𝑲𝒚𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒐𝒔 takes out the €600,000 Comer Group International Irish St. Leger for a second time. ⬛️⬜️🟥@coolmorestud | @Ballydoyle | @curraghracepic.twitter.com/33ShkicpuT

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) September 15, 2024

ABSURDE
“My question mark with him – weirdly considering he’s run over hurdles over further and won – I’m not convinced he stays the two miles on the flat, especially when you watch last year’s race. He was a little bit keen, which doesn’t help. He actually, if you stop it with two or so furlongs to go, coming around the straight, you’re thinking, ‘Hello, looking good here’, and his run just peters out. They’re going to need to make sure he settles better in the race … probably ride him a bit colder.”

Absurde easily lands the Listed Chester Stakes for @WillieMullinsNH and Daniel Tudhope at @ChesterRaces! pic.twitter.com/0LvQlraSJ7

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) August 31, 2024

ONESMOOTHOPERATOR
“He was impressive (in the Geelong Cup win) he really was, and I suppose when you look at it, are you thinking has he improved or are you thinking the competition was maybe a little bit below par? He’s clearly thrived for the journey and being in quarantine and having that one-on-one attention. I went back and watched his Ebor run. I know he finished seventh but it was a huge run, he sat too far back and really flew late. He’s got that different profile, more of an experienced, probably a more hardy staying type.”

That's Onesmoothoperator 😎

The import makes a mess of them in the 2024 Geelong Cup 🏆 @[e-mail]/OtrkUC6ka9

— Racing.com (@Racing) October 23, 2024

SEA KING
“They quite like him, Harry (Eustace) hasn’t had him long. He’s quite a big horse, with a big stride, so I think the bigger track at Flemington will suit him. He pretty much finished alongside Onesmoothoperator in the Ebor.”

UK visitor Sea King destroys his rivals in the Bendigo Cup 👑

Congratulations to @H_Eustace & @decbates 🤝 pic.twitter.com/d5ycejS9FO

— Racing.com (@Racing) October 30, 2024

WARP SPEED
“He was pretty lacklustre in the Caulfield Cup, he never really got involved. His form in Japan is good but the best we’ve seen competing in Australia, like a lot of people have said, you can forgive him because the Japanese horses are used to running on firmer tracks. Maybe the soft ground at Caulfield was a complete no, but I think you’re going to have to be quite forgiving to have him in your top selections (in the Melbourne Cup).”

Originally published as ‘He’s gone to a new level’: Francesca Cumani reveals her 2024 Melbourne Cup tips