The Last Say - best bets, whispers and market movers from around the country

DON'T put a bet on today without reading The Last Say first, all the good oil and market movers from around the country.

Metastasio

The Last Say

ROSEHILL GARDENS
Weather: Fine, mostly sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 24 degrees.
Track: Good (3)
Rail: 3m out

CAULFIELD
Weather: Cool, partly cloudy with isolated showers and a forecast top temperature of 15 degrees.
Track: Good (3)
Rail: 3m out

BE WARY: The rail is out 3m at Rosehill which is generally the best racing surface, particularly on a good track rating. Small fields in most of the races so tempo rather than track bias is the concern. Similarly at Caulfield where the track also rated a good 3 so it is more about tempo than any perceived track bias.

ROSEHILL GARDENS

THE BEST BET: Less Is More (race 8) was desperately unlucky when fifth behind Coup Ay Tee in the Winter Challenge two weeks ago. He was held up behind a wall of runners in the straight and was never really tested at at any stage. He was only beaten just over 1.5 lengths and clearly should have been challenging the winner. Less Is More is second-up today where he has performed previously, steps up to a more suitable 1800m distance and the firm track surface suits. Back him with confidence.

NEXT BEST: Coup Ay Tee (race 2) is a clear stand-out and would have been the best bet except his odds of $2.20 are considerably shorter than what the bookies are betting Less Is More ($4.10) later in the day. However, any price a winner is a good price and Coup Ay Tee should win this race. He was very good overcoming difficulties to finish fast and win the Listed Winter Challenge last start and although coming back slightly in distance and going up in weight, I think only bad luck in running will beat him. He's very fit while most of his rivals are stayers resuming or are very early in their campaigns. Coup Ay Tee's two main rivals, Havana Rey and Soledad, are struggling for form. Coup Ay Tee wins again.

VALUE BET: Kuroshio is very fast and might catch some of his more high profile rivals off guard in the San Domenico Stakes. Kuroshio looked good winning a trial at Randwick earlier this month defeating Never Can Tell and Eurozone and he always performs first-up from a spell. The rails barrier is ideal as Kuroshio will just jump and run and give his rivals something to catch around 1100m. He is over the odds at $9.

THE WHISPER:  Champagne Cath (race 1) missed the start then a lot of use was made of her early so it was no surprise to see her tire when a first-up fourth behind Windjammer over 1100m when resuming here two weeks ago. Nothing went right for her in that race so overlook her failure. She was a brilliant winner at her only previous start last summer. Stepping up to 1400m but this should suit and Nash Rawiller gains the ride. She makes a lot of appeal.

CAULFIELD

THE BEST BET: Lady Melksham (race 8) resumes in a tough race but she is flying on the training track. She was very impressive winning a recent jump-out at Flemington and is primed for this race. Lady Melksham is a noted first-up performer, she won this race when resuming last year, the rails barrier is ideal ensuring she gets the run of the race, champion jockey Glen Boss is in the saddle, and this mare has a very good winning strike-rate. She ticks all the boxes.

THE NEXT BEST: Safeguard (race 4) is a potentially outstanding sprinter. He was dominant on debut winning a Flemington straight course race then suffered a setback ruling him out of the Golden Slipper. At his only other run last season he bungled the start, got a long way back and seemed to be going nowhere when he suddenly unleashed a devastating burst of acceleration to win the Kindergarten Stakes. A real talent and drawn to get the run of the race from gate three.

VALUE BET: Launay (race 6) is no superstar but he is a very capable galloper placed to advantage in the Lawrence Stakes. He performed well first-up when third to Second Effort in the Bletchingly Stakes and will strip fitter today. Significantly, he has an outstanding second-up record, winning four of his six attempts, and he excels over the 1400m trip where he has recorded five of his eight career wins. There doesn't appear to be a stack of early speed in this race and Launay should get the gun run from his inside gate. At $7, he is the value runner of the race.

THE WHISPER: Kiss A Rose (race 5) matched it with stablemate Spirit Of Heaven in a track gallop at Caulfield earlier this week convincing trainer Peter Moody to run the filly. Kiss A Rose won at her only start here at Caulfield back in December, coming from last on the turn to reel in her rivals and race clear for a brilliant win. She is a talent - as is her stablemate Spirit Of Heaven - and they could easily run the quinella here with any luck. I'm leaning to Kiss A Rose, particularly with the firm track conditions.

THE BIG MONEY

ROSEHILL GARDENS

In the first race, big money through TAB Fixed Odds for two runners, Champagne Cath and Happy Clapper. Champagne Cath has firmed from $2.60 to $2.40 after bets of $4000 and $1000 at $2.60 while Happy Clapper is $8.50 to $4.10 after bets of $600 at $7, $1000 at $6.50, $500 at $5.50 and $500 at $4.80.

In race 2, Havana Rey is $5 to $4.80 after a bet of $800 at $5, Lunayir is $13 to $11 after a bet of $400 at $11.

In race 3, Gliding is $13 to $10 after a bet of $500 at $12.

In race 4, Red Excitement is $4.40 to $4.20 after a bet of $1500 at $4.40.

In race 5, Catkins is $5 to $3.60 after bets of $800 at $5, $1000 at $4.20 and $1700 at $4, Altius is $13 to $12 after a bet of $800 at $13 and Snitsky is $6.50 to $5.50 after bets of $1200 at $5.50 and $1100 at $6.50.

In race 6, Sidestep is $3.20 to $3.10 after bets of $1000 at $3.20, $1000 at $3 and $1000 [twice] at $3.10, Whittington is firm at $4 after of $2500 at those odds, Cluster is $18 to $13 after bets of $400 at $17, $450 at $14 and $500 at $13.

In race 8, Ironstein is firm at $18 after a bet of $500 at $18, Travolta is also firm at $4 after a bet of $2500 at those odds,  Less Is More is $4.60 to $4 after bets of $800 at $4.6 and a huge wager of $15,000 at $4.40, Marden is solid at $10 after a $2000 bet at those odds.

CAULFIELD

In race 1, Bia Diamond is $16 to $14 after a bet of $500 at $16, Kukla is the big firmer, $9 to $3.80 after bets of $500 at $9, $800 and $550 at $7.50, $500 at $6 and $500 at $5, Text’n Hurley is $3.50 to $3.10 after bets of $1250 at $3.40, $2000 at $3.20, $1500 at $3.10.

In race 3, Anagold is $13 to $11 after a bet of $600 at $13, Bells Of Troy is $4.60 to $3 after bets of $1000 at $4.60, $1340 at $4.40, $2000 at $3.60 and $2000 at $3.30.

In race 4, Safeguard is $3.40 to $2.90 after bets of $7000 at $3.20, $4000 at $3, and $5000 at $2.90, Fast ‘n’ Rocking is $6.50 to $6 after bets of $1000 at $6.50 and $500 [twice] at $6, Il Cavallo is $4.40 to $3.70 with bets of $800 at $4.40 and $1200 at $4.

In race 5, Metastasio is $6 to $5 after a bet of $2000 at $6, Swing Vote is firm at $10 after bets of $1000 at those odds and $500 each way at $10/$3.05.

In race 6, Second Effort is firm at $5 after a bet of $800 at those odds, Launay is firm at $7 after a bet of $1000 at those odds, High Esteem is $18 to $16 after a bet of $600 at $17 and Ajeeb is $9 to $8 after a bet of $900 at $9.

In race 7, Bello is $11 to $10 after a bet of $500 at $11, Dany The Fox is $11 to $10 after bets of $600 and $400 at $11, That’s The One is firm at $5,.50 after a bet of $800 at those odds, Academy Jack is $6 to $4.60 after bets of $500 at $5.50, $500 at $5 and $900 at $4.60.

In race 9, Lady Melksham is $5 to $4.60 after bets of $500 at $5 and $1000 at $4.80, You’re So Good is $11 to $7.50 after bets of $800 at $10 and $860 at $8, Octavia is firm at $3.20 after a bet of $1000 at those odds, A Time For Julia is $9 to $7.50 after a $2500 wager at $8.50.

INTERSTATE

Doomben race 2: Secret Harmony
Doomben race 6: Knockabout
Morphettville race 2: Impulse Buy
Morphettville race 7: Lago Di Como

PROVINCIAL MAIL

Kembla Grange race 2: Liberty's Choice
Kembla Grange race 3: Fraud

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners.