The Early Oil: Best bets and analysis for Caulfield

Blueblood colt Conqueror adds a class factor at Caulfield when he resumes in a benchmark race after mixing it with some of the top three-year-olds in the spring. BEST BETS AND ANALYSIS

Three-year-old colt Conqueror looks a standout on the Caulfield program even though he’s up against older opposition.

He was beaten by the likes of Super Seth, Alligator Blood and Dalasan before finishing a close second in the Sandown Guineas in the spring.

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BEST BET

CONQUEROR (Race 7, No.11)

VALUE BET

JUST BENJAMIN (Race 8, No.12)

EARLY QUADDIE

2,5,8 / 1,4,5,10 / 3,5,8,11,13,14 / 1,2,3,5,6

$100 flexi for 33.33%

BIG 6

3,13,14 / 1,2,3 / 4,13,17 / 11 / 1,7,12 / 2,11

$100 flexi for 61.72%

QUADDIE

Race 6: 3,4,12,13,17

Race 7: 3,11

Race 8: 1,2,7,8,9,10,12

Race 9: 2,3,7,11

$100 flexi for 35.71%

CAULFIELD

Track: Good 4. Rail: 3m

RACE 1 (12.55pm) — 1100m

Five last start winners, including three on debut. One of those first-up winners is GOLDEN GORGE (6). He finished powerfully from last to win by a decent margin at Bendigo. ZOUSHACK (4) has fought gamely in two close finishes behind handy pair Hawker Hurricane and Alburq in his past two starts and 1100m is his right distance. HARD PRESS (2) resumed with a gritty win at Sandown Hillside. He’ll push forward from the wide draw but there will be a bit of pressure. OCULAR (7) won with ease at Werribee but the form out of his debut win is untested. HOW WOMANTIC (10) also won on debut against moderate opposition.

BET: GOLDEN GORGE win

RACE 2 (1.30pm) — 1100m

Speedy mare CLARICE CLIFFS (2) hasn’t raced since March when she was a beaten short-priced favourite at Flemington. The tactics were baffling after she was taken to the outside rail while the majority of the field raced closer to the inside. Earlier in the prep she ran second to Group 2-winning mare Oregon’s Day after smashing the clock at Pakenham. PROPELLE (8) had every chance at Flemington but was beaten by two better horses Bold Star and Esperance. This is an easier race excluding the favourite. OUR CAMPANA (5) had all the favours when winning at Flemington. TIARA STAR (6) is also a last-start winner but this is tougher.

BET: CLARICE CLIFFS win

Clarice Cliffs chases Oregon’s Day at Flemington. Picture: AAP

RACE 3 (2.05pm) — 1100m

Worth noting that Damien Oliver has jumped off VAINSTREAM (5) and CAUSEWAY GIRL (8) to ride TONY NICCONI (4). The four-year-old gelding hasn’t lived up to his early promise but the engagement of Ollie makes me lean his way. Vainstream shouldn’t be ignored despite his fifth at Flemington, beaten just over two lengths by Bold Star, who ran second in the Group 3 Standish Handicap earlier in the week. ZALMONA (1) is coming out of two Listed races in Adelaide, the latest when second Ef Troop. Taking on favourite THE LAST NAPOLEON (10) even though he was a dominant winner over 955m at the Valley. This is stronger and he’ll be getting back again from his inside draw.

BET: TONY NICCONI each-way

RACE 4 (2.40pm) — 1200m

BAM’S ON FIRE (3) appeared to have every chance at Flemington but the inside rail may have been a disadvantage. She still ran the second fastest last 600m and second fastest 600m-400m split of the meeting, and she’s won twice at Caulfield. LICKO’PAINT (14) returned to form first-up at the Valley. Jamie Kah will take her forward from barrier 14 and try to hang on. MONTENEGRO MAN (13) made a solid return to fall short at Caulfield after missing the start. Likely to settle back in the field again. There wasn’t much better MILORD (8) and SYMPHONETTE (11) but the former has the better draw. MUMBLES (5) can atone.

BET: BAM’S ON FIRE win

Bam’s On Fire is undefeated at Caulfield. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 5 (3.20pm) — 1400m

Three-year-old filly SHEZAWITNESS (2) is on the back-up after chasing rising filly It’s Kind Of Magic at the Valley. She had dropped back in distance but now steps up to 1400m. PARMIE (1), KURAMAE (3), BELLA AMORE (5) and FEIGN (12) all come out of the same Flemington race won by Kuramae after she made a burst for the line when a gap opened for her. She’s a chance again. Parmie improved second-up out to 1400m but wasn’t so lucky after drawing barrier 1. She has to contend with the same draw here. Bella Amore had a wide run. MRS BECKHAM (6) won her maiden impressively at Caulfield mid-weeker but this is a little harder.

BET: SHEZAWITNESS win

RACE 6 (4pm) — 1400m

This is a tough race. THUNDERDOME (4) has two fourths this campaign but has been beaten less than two lengths in both races. Not really eager to dive into him with just one win from 17 starts. First emergency SIZZLEME (17) is in the field. She’s raced against stronger opposition including Mr Quickie, Mirette and Princess Jenni. NIGHT GUY (13) had excuses in his two runs this prep, pulling up with a slow recovery first-up before he was slow out of the gates next start and was the widest runner in the straight. MONTASER (3) has been much better the past two runs but barrier one won’t suit the backmarker. HAMSLETTE (12) dropped back to 1400m and won after enjoying an cozy lead. There’s more pressure here.

BET: THUNDERDOME each-way

RACE 7 (4.40pm) — 1400m

The class on paper is CONQUEROR (11). The three-year-old takes on the older horses but his past four runs were in Group races last spring — second in the Sandown Guineas, fourth in the Carbine Club Stakes, sixth in the Caulfield Guineas and third in the Stutt Stakes. TURN THE TIDE (3) broke through this campaign with a two-length win at Caulfield. The start before he finished two lengths behind in-form Yulong January. SMART ELISSIM (4) will be fitter second-up. He was a half-length second to Turn The Tide in July on a soft. WRITE YOUR NAME (9) was a well-beaten favourite at Pakenham but may have struggled to run out the 1600m.

BET: CONQUEROR win

Conqueror took on some top gallopers in the spring. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 8 (5.20pm) — 1600m

JUST BENJAMIN (12) is making his Australian debut and has Damien Oliver onboard — a great indicator of his chances. Another import, Aktau, won a similar race two weeks ago. OCEAN’S FOURTEEN (7) was one of the beaten horses from that race. He backed up his excellent return after being well supported, and has drawn to sit behind the leaders. WETAKEMANHATTAN (1) and SUNDAY PRAY (8) also weren’t far behind in the same race. SOMETHING SILVER (10) steps back to 1600m after running a close second over 1400m at Caulfield. She beat Sure Knee at the Valley two starts ago. HOWLOWCANYOUGO (9) hauled himself over the line at Yarra Valley when a very short price but will have to do some work from the wide gate.

BET: JUST BENJAMIN each-way

RACE 9 (5.55PM) — 2000m

PINA (11) is backing up after running second at the Valley when dropping back from 2040m to 1600m. She made up a stack of ground from last. Although she’ll be conceding a big start again, she’ll appreciate getting back out to 2000m. THE BLACK LEOPARD (2) was beaten a nose at Caulfield on Boxing Day. The start before he defeated DONNDUBHAN (3) at Sandown Hillside. Donndubhan then won a midweek race at Caulfield. SKELM (7) improved with the blinkers on when a comfortable winner at Hillside. CAPE RICHARDS (4) is a place chance.

BET: PINA each-way

LEO SCHLINK’S FOUR-PLAY

RACE 3: TONY NICCONI (No. 4)

$25 each-way at $4.60/$1.85

TONY NICCONI looks well placed here for Lindsay Park. Resuming after 17-week break, he is a proven first-up performer. He is also a winner over this course and distance, having landed the Group 3 Vain Stakes in 2018. The veteran of just nine starts, Tony Nicconi’s two career wins have both come at Caulfield. Damien Oliver is an obvious asset.

RACE 4: BAMS ON FIRE (No.3)

$50 win at $2.70

BAMS ON FIRE is unbeaten at Caulfield, winning twice here over 1100m. Dropping sharply in grade, she rises 5kg in weight before the 2kg claim for Michael Poy. Drawn ideally in barrier four, the mare gets her chance to finish strongly off.

RACE 7: CONQUEROR (No.11)

$50 win at $3.60

CONQUEROR was only narrowly beaten in Group 2 class in the Sandown Guineas and drops to a BM78 here. At his only Caulfield start, he finished sixth, beaten 3.8 lengths, behind Super Seth in the Caulfield Guineas. He’s had two first-up attempts for a win and a second.

RACE 9: THE BLACK LEOPARD (No.2)

$50 win at $3.10

THE BLACK LEOPARD followed an impressive 1800m Sandown win with narrow defeat over this course and trip on Boxing Day. Michael Poy, who has twice won previously on the gelding, regains the mount and his 2kg claim offsets the rise to 61.5kg. Drawn ideally on the fence.

Originally published as The Early Oil: Best bets and analysis for Caulfield