Shayne O’Cass’s extended preview and tips for Royal Randwick
Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass examines every race at Royal Randwick on Saturday to point you in the right direction to finding a winner.
Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass runs the rule over every race, including suggested bets, for the Randwick meeting on Saturday.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here.
RANDWICK
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 5m.
RACE 1
Overview: Snapback was an $825,000 Magic Millions Yearling bred at Arrowfield Stud. He is a son of Snitzel out of Black Opal placegetter Later Gator and traces back to Denise’s Joy via some stakes-winning race mares. Has everything needed to be a ‘good horse’ and the way he has trialled, you would think he is there at the Gold Coast in January. Crucible has three stakes-winning siblings which is something of a head-start in life. Achyls was very good in the Gimcrack and has trialled well since.
Betting Advice: Snapback to win
RACE 2
Overview: Super Extreme is drawn wide but not for the first time. He seems to have an adjustable pattern so can give away a start and make up the deficit late, particularly with James McDonald to get the timing right. Zaru doesn’t win out of turn but is highly consistent. Mister Larrabee brings Ben Looker to town, Paul Shailer too, and these two are a very successful pairing; both of whom know exactly what is required to win a Highway so they obviously think they have a horse up to the task. I think so too.
Betting Advice: Mister Larrabee each-way
RACE 3
Overview: With Your Blessing has the capacity to reel off some truly incredible sectionals and you just couldn’t think of a horse who is going to appreciate or excel at Randwick more than him and it has nothing to do with the fact he lives on High Street. Dalaalaat has been something of a bad luck magnet throughout but is a formidable talent when given a break or two. Peaks here on the weekend but will be dictated to by the alley (again). Was good late at Rosehill last start. Broken Arrows has a good chance thanks to a good track and a good tempo.
Betting Advice: With Your Blessing to win
RACE 4
Overview: Worthily is suited stepping up to 2000m third-up with a great barrier and an attractive weight. Ticks a few boxes. Zoumon got a Josh Parr special when he won at Rosehill. That said, the third placed Smirk was every bit as good the winner. Oceanic Flash has an honourable record for a horse whose wins are from 1850m to 2400m, not to mention one that is more or less at the mercy of good rides and good tempos. There was more merit in the first-up run than it looks on paper and he has always gone better with a run under his belt.
Betting Advice: Oceanic Flash each-way, quinella 7,13
RACE 5
Overview: Eight Carat descendant Alpha One won his first three starts at his second campaign including one at The Valley before his half head second in a Group 3 Vain at Caulfield behind, wait for it, Giga Kick. Won a deep trial at Rosehill on Dec 8. He is flying. Quick Tempo won his first five starts. ‘Number six’ arrived in comprehensive fashion on The Gong Day undercard. Got the right man on again. Just a matter of him shouldering the 60kg this time. If Vowmaster goes to Canterbury on Friday night, he’ll be winning there (fingers crossed).
Betting Advice: Alpha One to win
RACE 6
Overview: Estadio Mestalla was disappointing for those who took the even money last start but there were a few who were able to mount a defence for the import that probably gets him off the hook. Jury’s out in my own mind but he could set the record straight one way or the other on Saturday. Arnold is a good horse off a good trial. Micro had every chance when he resumed when a distant second at the Kensington twilight meeting. Looks to be in great shape this preparation. Let’s just hope the draw doesn’t beat him.
Betting Advice: Micro to win
RACE 7
Overview: Deficit should more accurately be called ‘Profit’ given Gerald Ryan paid $65,000 for him as a yearling and the horse has won back $216,970. He looks well placed to add another $76,250 on Saturday when he (hopefully) peaks third-up off the back of two good runs, the last better than the previous. Just cannot understand why Oz Legend went up $41 with the TAB on Wednesday. Maybe he’s not ready to win, okay, but he could run still a place. Naval Seal has the draw, Spangler has the talent.
Betting Advice: Deficit to win
RACE 8
Overview: Coal Crusher is the perfect example of why Joe Pride is famous when it comes to placing his horses. How else could this one have seven wins and six seconds from 18 starts. Big weight but he’s so honest he could carry more and still lead the chase. Shameless Miss is by Shamexpress out of a Montjeu mare which explains how she has won from 1400m all the way up to 2600m. That was the Stayers Cup here on June 25 before the spell. The way she has been trialling suggests that she is able to win.
Betting Advice: Shameless Miss each-way.
RACE 9
Overview: I Am Me has barrier 1 which is sometimes a disaster waiting to happen for some horses but you would think that is more a blessing than a curse for her. James McDonald is such a good navigator and strategist for us all to start thinking the worst. On The Lead covered ground when a very brave and very statistically impressive second to I Am Me when they met at Rosehill two weeks ago. It is entirely possible he could turn the tables and entirely likely he will get closer.
Betting Advice: I Am Me to win
RACE 10
Overview: Frumos paid the penalty that so often comes with barrier one when she was beaten first-up. Impossible to know what would have happened if she was in clear running, but she probably wins nine times out of ten you would think. That said, if she gets beaten here with no excuse, then a lot of us are guilty of overrating her. Jewellery is entered for a race at Canterbury tonight, the same venue where she won so incredibly impressive at first-up. Big chance wherever they go with her.
Betting Advice: Jewellery to win
Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’s extended preview and tips for Royal Randwick
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