Shayne O’Cass’s extended preview and tips for Royal Randwick

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass examines every race for Group 1 Randwick Guineas Day at Royal Randwick on Saturday to point you in the right direction to finding a winner.

High-class filly Learning To Fly can remain undefeated in the Reisling Stakes on Saturday. Picture: Grant Guy

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass runs the rule over every race, including suggested bets, for Saturday’s Group 1 Randwick Guineas meeting.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here.

RANDWICK

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 6m

RACE 1

Overview: Navajo Peak has form around Lindermann which could be Group 1 form later in the day. Whatever happens in the Guineas, you would have to mark Navajo Peak as a big chance in the Midway on his Randwick numbers. Herb was a beaten favourite over 1000m at Nowra first-up but had ‘next time’ written all over him and that ‘next time’ was the Provincial/Midway Qualifier (1400m) at Kembla where he came from off the speed to finish second. Mile this time looks perfect.

The Bet: Herb each-way

RACE 2

Overview: Red Resistance is probably the fastest two-year-old in Sydney. You should have seen him go in that trial at Warwick Farm the other day. Both wins are at 1100m which begs the question, can he keep it going another 100m? We will find out on Saturday. Breeders’ Plate winner Empire Of Japan will either get run off his feet or run over the top of them. The small field plays right into hands, so long as he can keep in touch.

The Bet: Empire Of Japan to win

Empire Of Japan can find winning form in the Todman Stakes. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 3

Overview: Sir Owen Glenn bred and owns Red Resistance and bred and sold Kundalini. She’s the daughter of his former ace NZ two-year-old Ruud Awakening who ran 15th of 16 in Overreach’s Golden Slipper. Kundalini cost $1.7 million at Easter and only has a length to make up on Learning To Fly from the Millennium. The 2023 Slipper is a long way from being over but if Learning To Fly happened to win, and win impressively here, she will be a clear favourite on the day, depending on what happens in the Todman of course.

The Bet: Learning To Fly to win

RACE 4

Overview: Bullfinch is not the most reliable horse in the world so far as winning goes but is consistent and competitive. So much so, that all things being equal, he should be in the finish, it’s just a matter of if the desire is there. Take note, he does race well at Randwick even though he hasn’t won there yet. Melbourne Cup favourite Soulcombe was underwhelming to say the least first-up. He trialled at Warwick Farm 12-days later and was plain. Each to their own but I couldn’t come at him at $3.40 if this field remains whole.

The Bet: Bullfinch to win

RACE 5

Overview: Lady Laguna has a reputation for being a bit of a mudlark, and yes, she does excel on wet tracks but she has won on top of the ground so she is certainly not one-dimensional. A look at her 11 starts, most of them anyway, reveals an underrated filly with some very deep form. Economics looks pretty short for a horse drawn 13 of 13 in a hot field. I think he is being priced more on his jockey than his talent. Not that he doesn’t have at least some x-factor.

The Bet: Lady Laguna to win

RACE 6

Overview: A Sale Maiden winner versus a Moe Maiden winner. Or, another way of putting it, The Everest winner Giga Kick versus The Everest placegetter Eduardo. Eduardo is two points longer than Giga Kick despite being three from three at this track and distance including the last two Challenge Stakes. Eduardo is the better odds but who knows what Giga’s Kick ceiling is. Oh and what about the trial. OMG.

The Bet: Giga Kick to win

RACE 7

Overview: Great to see the four-time Group 1 winning NZ mare Imperatriz on our side of the Tasman for the first time. The daughter of I Am Invincible has won 12 of 17 and while she has some genuine competition on Saturday, these aren’t the absolute best in the business. Golden Mile has the draw and the jockey to win what won’t go down as the deepest or strongest Group 1 race ever run at Randwick. Look out for Kirwan’s Lane who has been trialling like a bomb.

The Bet: Kirwan’s Lane to place

Matcha Latte (outside) looks a good chance in the Group 1 Randwick Guineas. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 8

Overview: Aft Cabin’s defeat in the Hobartville was entirely excusable given the amount of work he was asked to do in the first half of the race. James McDonald is back on for the Guineas. Just thinking if Aft Cabin is a genuine ‘Randwick miler’ or am I underrating him? Osipenko got all the favours in the Hobartville last start but could it happen again in the Guineas. Matcha Latte is the horse with all the improvement on his side; him and Williamsburg.

The Bet: Matcha Latte to win

RACE 9

Overview: Gin Martini just shouldn’t be $51. I have seen better Group 3’s than this. She is a stakes winner herself, sure it was over 3200m but all that means is that she has so much residual fitness to run the mile first-up keeping in mind she ran over 2400m after the two mile win. Trialled twice and went fantastic each time. Stablemate, Pink Ivory (Lotteria’s daughter) is on her way to the Epona Stakes (I’m guessing) so look out for a good return from her. Roots and Banana Queen have admirers for obvious reasons.

The Bet: Gin Martini each-way

RACE 10

Overview: Jal Lei will need a good tempo and a perfectly timed ride (that is to say an ‘out’ from barrier 3 up the rise) but so long as things don’t against her, much less actually go her way, her booming finish might be enough to kick start what could be ‘her campaign’. Lot of stars need to line up for her but they easily could. Sky Command has raced at Randwick at half of her 16 career starts for three wins and three placings, She’s unbeaten in two runs at the track/trip and wow, what a trial at Wyong the other week.

The Bet: Jal Lei each-way

Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’s extended preview and tips for Royal Randwick