Shayne O’Cass’s extended preview and tips for Rosehill Gardens
Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass examines every race at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday to point you in the right direction to finding a winner.
Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass runs the rule over every race, including suggested bets, for the Rosehill meeting on Saturday.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here.
ROSEHILL
Track: Soft 7. Rail: True.
RACE 1
Overview: Crop Duster was a huge chance before he drew out in barrier 23 of 24. Not out of it but still, it’s not going to be easy now. Proverbial went close in the Christmas Eve Highway at Randwick over 1100m finishing fast and while you would think the 1200m would suit, it is worth bearing in mind that he is unplaced in all four runs at the distance. Demitasse has won three of his six starts and ran well, statistically speaking, in his first Highway last month.
Bet: Crop Duster each-way
RACE 2
Overview: Green Shadows is a son of the Gerald Ryan-trained Menari. Ryan bought this colt over in Perth for $80,000. A winner of $134,840 and counting, Green Shadows has only once finished worse than fifth in his nine starts and that was the J.J. Atkins. Wineglass Bay has been afforded great respect in the market place and rightly so. This Waller import is effective from 1400m up to 2000m and the trial was rock solid. Perfect race for him to kick off his Australia career and they couldn’t have hoped for a better draw.
Bet: Green Shadows to win, quinella 5,8
RACE 3
Overview: Passeggiata was a moral at Gosford on debut, even with the draw. She won and won easily just like in her trials. She was backed into a similar price on Wednesday but it’s a totally different, and much more difficult, assignment this time. With all that, we might lose a few key runners so she’ll be in the red and win again. Can’t hold me to anything here; this race might look totally different come post time. Narito could test this favourite big time. There is a lot to like about the way he can stalk in his race and let down late.
Bet: Narito each-way (in a full field only)
RACE 4
Overview: You couldn’t find a horse with a more misleading record than Dalaalaat. The Nathan Doyle-trained gelding has been plagued by bad barriers this preparation which has morphed into bad luck, not once, not twice but three times leading into this. Still has gate 10 of 14 but up to 1500m now, one cancels out the other in my opinion. Excelladus has been consistently competitive pretty much his whole 10-start career and gets Nash Rawiller back on board.
Bet: Dalaalaat to win
RACE 5
Overview: This is last chance stuff surely for Frumos. Granted she was unlucky first-up but she was bordering on plain second-up. Barrier 1 again, that may not be all that it is cracked up to be. If we stay in the soft range, maybe Saigon could ambush them late. The ‘old one’ probably would. Festival Dancer, the 2021 Newcastle Spring Stakes winner, found her mojo again third-up when she led at Randwick and was run down late. Fair to say that she runs her best race up that end of the field so from barrier five, one suspects she is prominent, at very least, and could be harder to pass this time.
Bet: Festival Dancer to win
RACE 6
Overview: The market will tell a story with Raging Bull, whose CV trumps anything that these others bring to the table. Regarding the 1400m, one was a ripper third on debut; the other was when he was four lengths behind Anamoe in the Hobartville. This is doable. Silent Agenda is going to peak here third-up. Can see him flashing late with no weight on his back. Bold Mac has the compelling first-up form and has trialled well again.
Bet: Raging Bull each-way
RACE 7
Overview: Chris Waller has won six of the last 10 January Cups and has a pretty fair chance of making it seven in 2023 with a handful of runners. Chalk Stream, who is owned by The King has a higher talent to weight ratio in this weekend’s race. Trials have been good too. If not him, then the stablemate Aleas. Berdibek has been working his way into peak fitness and peak form with each one better than the last. Interesting to note that he is the only horse with a three digit benchmark racing in Sydney this weekend.
Bet: Chalk Stream to win
RACE 8
Overview: It was a sweet victory for the true believers who stuck solid with Estadio Mestalla last start. I stuck but hardly solid but one thing that I think we can say is that he was impressive. Let’s just see if he can string two good runs together now. Born With Wings is a market watch being quite a well-credentialed import from the Snowden yard. Sure, he is no Huetor but he could easily have an impact here unless the barrier has beaten him.
Bet: Estadio Mestalla to win
RACE 9
Overview: Lovely Esteem was in the right race last start but at the wrong track. She was pretty safe in the Belle Of The Turf betting at $10 but her ‘failure’ was a mix of getting too far back, which she can do, and a few too many doors closing in front of her in the short straight. This is her track in more ways than one. Dr Evil is getting up to a trip where he can mix and match it with this calibre. Been really good in his first two runs this preparation suggesting a win is imminent; if not now then the next time.
Bet: Lovely Esteem each-way
RACE 10
Overview: Niffler has a very good racing pattern which accounts for her fabulous strike-rate of five wins, four seconds and a third. The other glaringly compelling statistic is how good she is when fresh or first-up. All we can add is that the trial was bang on the mark the other day. Pizarro has finished on the podium at every one of his eight starts which almost guarantees him a medal. Kalino telegraphed that first-up win at Randwick from the trial in the lead-up. The only real surprise was how easily he won that day.
Bet: Niffler to win
Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’s extended preview and tips for Rosehill Gardens
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