Sandown Guineas: Affair To Remember on track for major success
Trainer Dan O’Sullivan is confident Affair To Remember has the talent to win the Group 2 Sandown Guineas and the track will suit her style. Plus, Michael Manley race analysis and tips.
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Ballarat trainer Dan O’Sullivan is hoping the long straight at Sandown Hillside will provide his three-year-old filly Affair To Remember with what she wants in Saturday’s Group 2 Sandown Guineas (1600m).
“I’d love to see her go to the races and she can get her chance to show her real ability, which is on the better side of above average,” O’Sullivan said. “Hopefully, with the long run in at Sandown and with a small field we can see that.”
The daughter of Toronado is a $3.20 favourite with TAB fixed odds, despite having won only one of her four starts, which was first-up at Geelong, but she has had little luck at her past two runs.
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Two starts ago, she finished seventh at Caulfield in the Jim Moloney Stakes, but was held up for a run until the closing stages before rocketing home.
Then last start at Flemington on Oaks Day, she was again held up for a run before flying home to finish third behind Nudge.
O’Sullivan said Affair To Remember’s jockey John Allen was a victim of circumstances on that occasion.
“She’s a filly only having her fourth start and she bumped into another horse and ricocheted back in,” he said. “Her inexperience had a lot to do with her not holding her spot.
“It’s been frustrating. It would have been nice to win one on Oaks Day as you really want to train a winner during Cup Week when everybody is watching.”
FOUR $50 BETS FOR SANDOWN HILLSIDE
RACE 4, No.1 — WIDGEE TURF ($50 win at $2.50)
He’s one of the most dependable gallopers in racing and even though he’s got to give weight to his rivals he looks well placed to win. At his last start he went down to his great rival Iconoclasm at The Valley. He’s had four starts over 1500m for two wins and two seconds.
RACE 5, No.1 — FAATINAH ($25 each-way at $6)
He failed in this race last year but had raced at Flemington during Cup week but this time Lindsay Park elected to bypass it. Three starts ago he finished fourth in the Moir Stakes over 1000m behind Nature Strip, Miss Leonidas and Sunlight. If any of that trio were in this race they wouldn’t be at each-way odds.
RACE 7, No.11 — AFFAIR TO REMEMBER ($50 the win at $3.40)
Happy to go with this filly’s potential. She was stopped in her tracks at Caulfield two starts ago before rocketing home and then last start got into a bumping duel when hooked out to make her run. She still charged home for third. The wide open spaces of Australia’s best racetrack will suit.
RACE 9, No.4 — FIDELIA ($50 the win at $4.60)
She hasn’t lived up to expectations during the spring but things are always that much harder for a backmarker. Two starts ago at Caulfield she had to make her run a little early when close third to Spanish Reef. She’ll relish this circuit.
*****
Affair To Remember is raced by prominent South Australian breeder and owner David Peacock, who O’Sullivan has trained successfully for over 20 years.
O’Sullivan has had success with horses such as So Gorgeous and Truly Discreet for him.
O’Sullivan was setting Affair To Remember for the Group 1 Thousand Guineas but he was forced to scratch her after she was found to have had filling in a leg before the race.
“The X-rays and scans said it was nothing serious but I had to wait for it to come right,” he said. “At this time of the year there’s too many nice races and I was confident it would settle down and it did so we’ve pushed on with her.”
After Saturday, O’Sullivan said he would spell Affair To Remember and bring her back for the Adelaide carnival.
FEATURE FOCUS
SANDOWN GUINEAS (1600m)
Group 2, 3YO, Race 7, 4pm Saturday
THE FACTORS
Track: Good 4. Rail: True. Weather: 18C, cloudy.
THE BEST CHANCES
AFFAIR TO REMEMBER ($3.20)
With a degree of luck should have won her past two starts. She’ll relish the long run in at Sandown Hillside where she can use her brilliant finishing burst.
CONQUEROR ($8.50)
Brave effort when he held on for fourth in the Carbine Club Stakes which was won by the potential star in Dalasan and Groundswell who finished third, also came in that spot in the Caulfield Guineas. So unlike his rivals he’s dropping in class.
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
HEART OF PUISSANCE ($4.60)
Amazing win at his second start at The Valley as he veered off the track in the straight but still proved too good for his rivals. Has a stack of upside and no surprise if he’s the best horse in the race.
BANQUO ($4.60)
Raced on the speed and controlled the race when comfortable winner at Flemington last week over 1400m. Steps up to 1600m but is on a seemingly unstoppable upward spiral.
PRETTY BRAZEN ($4.20)
Sat deep throughout and still finished off strongly when 0.8 length fifth to Akari over 1400m at Flemington. She can produce fast closing sectionals and is a half sister to Sertorius so should run out the distance strongly.
THE ROUGHIE
CALL ME SHAMUS ($23)
Improving with every start. Strong win last start over 1600m at The Valley to break his maiden status which followed a second to Floreat Pica at Cranbourne.
THE SPEED
DEFEND and BANQUO from wide barriers should work across and lead. CONQUEROR should get a great spot behind them. AFFAIR TO REMEMBER and HEART OF PUISSANCE will settle back and swoop home.
THE TRAINER
DAN O’SULLIVAN
AFFAIR TO REMEMBER
“I just want to see her have every opportunity to use her sprint without being held-up and I’m hoping that will happen with the long run in at this track.”
THE HISTORY
Only eight fillies have won the race with the last one being in 2005 with Cayambe. The best form reference is usually the Carbine Club Stakes with 12 winners having competed in that race at their prior run.
THE STRATEGY
Back Affair To Remember the win with a saver on Conqueror, who looks over the odds.
THE TIPS
1. AFFAIR TO REMEMBER
2. Conqueror
3. Heart Of Puissance
4. Banquo
Originally published as Sandown Guineas: Affair To Remember on track for major success
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