Randwick races: Shayne O’Cass’ tips and extended preview

Think About it can solidify his place at the top of Everest betting when he resumes while an imported stayer is poised to claim The Metropolitan according to form analyst Shayne O’Cass.

Everest favourite Think About It can kick off his campaign with a win in the Premiere Stakes at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Grant Guy

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass runs the rule over every race, including suggested bets, for the triple Group 1 meeting at Randwick on Saturday.

RANDWICK

Track: Good 4. Rail: True

RACE 1

Overview: Loving Cilla has had the perfect build-up to 2000m and looking at her pedigree and her recent runs, it is so patently clear that she is crying out for the ten furlongs and on a big track Randwick, regardless what her C.V says in that respect. There are a few horses here suited stepping up to 2000m; let’s throw in Go Troppo who needs a great ride and a lot of luck now from his wide alley. Phillipsburg deserves a win; he tries every time.

Bet:Loving Cilla each-way, exacta 10 to beat 3

RACE 2

Overview: This is what avid trial watchers wait for all year; the Gimcrack and Breeders’ Plate. Me? I ranked the fillies ‘best triallers’ this way; Invincible Madison, Umabett, Celestial Bling and Lady Of Camelot. Now for some background. Invincible Madison was a $1.2 million Gold Coast yearling. She is by I Am Invincible and her mum, Super Too, was stakes placed and went 55.70s here at Randwick for the 1000m. Wow. Got to like the way Umabett and Totoka hit the line in their trials.

Bet:Invincible Madison to win, box trifecta 3, 5, 6, 12

Trainers Peter (left) and Paul Snowden can claim the first two-year-old features of the season, the Gimcrack Stakes and Breeders’ Plate, at Randwick. Picture: AAP Image

RACE 3

Overview: Colts and geldings time and just for what it is worth, I ranked them this way on the their respective trials; Volatile, Scampi (almost a dead-heat) then Force Red and Highness with an honourable mention to Counterpart. Given this in the Breeders’ Plate, let’s just touch on Volatile’s pedigree. He is by Snitzel and his third dam is Easy Date, the mother of Snippets. Right now, Volatile looks good buying at $550,000. If he wins on Saturday, he will be a fair dinkum steal.

Bet:Volatile to win, quinella 11, 14

RACE 4

Overview: Renaissance Woman has raced 12 times and has already made four Group 1 appearances; her last was her fourth in the Queensland Oaks. That makes her a ‘system horse’ here but there are three others that fit the criteria (first-up out of a classic). They being third, fourth and fifth over the line in the Queensland Derby namely Stroke Of Luck, Promises Kept and Anadalus all of whom should run well fresh. Arts is an improver on the weekend.

Bet:Renaissance Woman to win

RACE 5

Overview: Agita is not quite in the Criterion or Ace High category but I bet you he turns out to be David Payne’s next Group 1 winner. We might have to wait only as long as until the Spring Champion Stakes or maybe the Rosehill Guineas or the ATC Derby. Just hoping the 1600m isn’t too short for him here. Might be. Tom Kitten ran a huge race in the Ming Dynasty and the Encap form is now Golden Rose form. Ganbare is on the up and up. The Autumn Sun colt Ashfall is the value.

Bet:Agita each-way

Promising three-year-old Agita looks a good each-way chance in the DulcifyStakes. Picture: Bradley Photos

RACE 6

Overview: Tiz Invincible has been, and is, the top three-year-old filly of the crop. She has won the two legs of the Princess Series that she has contested and the Flight on Saturday would make it three. Now with all that said, her good luck with barriers has come to an end. Might have to work harder for this one. Kimochi has played second fiddle to Tiz Invincible in the Furious and the Tea Rose. Kimochi will love the Randwick Mile but no more than Tiz Invincible or Summer Loving and even the bolter Hasty Heart.

Bet:Tiz Invincible to win, Hasty Heart to place

RACE 7

Overview: Think About It is the $4 TAB Fixed Odds favourite to win The Everest. It is all academic of course but everyone on the planet would agree that this horse’s record should be 10 starts for 10 wins. As it is, he’s won nine and two of them are Group 1s. Said it before, and say it again, he is the horse with no ceiling (at the moment). We have to forgive Lost And Running and Mazu for their runs in The Shorts. You can’t cover that much extra ground when they run 1.02.66 seconds. Zapateo is deadly accurate at the Randwick 1200m.

Bet:Think About It to win

RACE 8

Overview: There wouldn’t be too many more honest and genuine mares around than Hope In Your Heart. When was the last bad one she put in? She actually has a very good strike rate for a horse with her pattern that is almost wholly reliant on tempo and the jockey getting the timing right - and a track bias etc. If she repeats her Doncaster rating, she will win the Epsom. Pounding is another quality mare who went to the paddock as an Australian Cup placegetter and has come back with two more outstanding WFA runs. Tasmanian The Inevitable has won 16 from 31 (wow) whose closing splits in the Theo Marks were 10.53s, 10.69s and home in 32.29s (wow again).

Bet:Hope In Your Heart to win, Daily Double 1st Leg (8), 2nd Leg (4)

Hope In Your Heart can score a deserved Group 1 win in the Epsom Handicap. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 9

Overview: Just for some context, I have had Mr Waterville on top at both Australian starts and will argue all day long that his seventh of 14 and fourth of eight were as good as anything in front of him each time. He’s been looking for 2400m since he stepped off the plane and you won’t see a better suited horse on a weight-to-talent ratio than him. Manzoice ran 11th of 13 in the Kingston Town but it was clear that he needs 2400m and more now. Just Fine and Benaud are the best of the rest.

Bet:Mr Waterville (best bet), exacta 17 to beat 7

RACE 10

Overview: Rubamos has won or placed at exactly half of his 24 starts which is an honourable effort in its own right. The son of I Am Invincible has won two from five fresh and the trial and the 2 alley (to a smaller degree) favour him. Stablemate Extremely Lucky ran some ripper sectionals behind Red Card second-up. Ditto for Airman who is pitched in at the weights for a horse of his ability.

Bet:Rubamos each-way

Originally published as Randwick races: Shayne O’Cass’ tips and extended preview