Rosehill races: Brad Davidson’s tips and extended preview

Smart mare Snapdancer is primed for a big first-up showing at Rosehill but there is one concern, says form analyst Brad Davidson.

A wet track is a query for Snapdancer. Picture: Getty Images

Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including suggested bets, for the Rosehill meeting on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

ROSEHILL

Track: Heavy 8. Rail: True

R1: ELITE SAND & SOIL HANDICAP (1100m)

Overview: Very open race as these early two-year-old races are. I thought Controlocracy, Victorine and Emilia Romagna all trialled well in the same heat at Warwick Farm. They all weren’t asked for an effort but the trial time and last 600m was strong. Lady Laguna and Hard To Say both have the race experience which counts for a lot in these races.

BETTING ADVICE: Controlocracy runs well at odds.

R2: TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200m)

Overview: I think this race is a bit more open than the market suggests. Participator was very good to the eye last start but he wasn’t as dominant on the clock and the horses behind him have been well held since as well. He can win but $2.90 seems short for mine. The Drover, Testator Silens, Banju, King’s Trust, Lady Mofeed, Still In Fashion and Costas are all capable and the chances don’t end there.

BETTING ADVICE: Favourite looks a bit short for mine. Could speck some roughies to beat him.

R3: MIDWAY HANDICAP (2000m)

Overview: Open race. Jazzland is the class horse in the race but he doesn’t want it too wet with the big weight. He maps to lead and should prove hard to catch. Foxtrot Bravo has been going well this prep and I think he can shape up here with a different form line. Rebel Rama sets up well, while Karmazone, Dream Maiden and Sepulchre should all get conditions to suit

BETTING ADVICE: Rebel Rama the one to beat. Foxtrot Bravo can run well at odds.

R4: ATC CUP (2000m)

Overview: Interesting little race. Grove Ferry was a hidden run second up and the step up in trip looks to suit here. Mightybeel is flying this prep and there’s no reason he can’t win again here. Blue Soldier and Soldier Of Love both are tough as teak and will relish the wet ground, while Polly Grey is a good wet tracker and must also be respected.

BETTING ADVICE: Leaning to Grove Ferry.

Irish Angel can win first-up. Picture: AAP

R5: SYDNEY HANDICAP (1100m)

Overview: I still have a bit of work to do on this race but Bacchanalia sets up pretty well. He just found the 1000m a bit sharp fresh but he took on strong opposition and this looks easier. The extra 100m will suit as well. Irish Angel was a strong winner first-up last prep and the wet track won’t be an issue for her. Stablemate Cloudy did a good job last prep and must be respected first up, while there are other hopes,

BETTING ADVICE: Bacchanalia and Irish Angel look the two.

R6: ELITE HAULAGE HANDICAP (1800m)

Overview: Born A King was a strong winner at Rosehill second-up and he is still on an upward spiral here. He finds Tommy Berry and just needs to get through the conditions. Media Starguest has been really good at two runs back and it’s just a query on whether 1400m to 1800m will be a bridge too far? Lord Ardmore also has claims.

BETTING ADVICE: Born A King on top.

A wet track is a query for Snapdancer. Picture: Getty Images

R7: STARLIGHT STAKES (1100m)

Overview: I like the way Snapdancer has been trialling and she sat wide and still bolted in first-up last prep. She hasn’t seen a wet track and that’s the obvious query here. Southern Lad was a strong winner at Randwick fresh and the query here is his Rosehill form isn’t as strong. Vulpine and Surreal Step are two horses that have performances at this track and distance that would put them in the finish but they are mixing form of late.

BETTING ADVICE: Snapdancer providing it’s not too wet.

R8: FESTIVAL STAKES (1500m)

Overview: Decent edition of the Festival Stakes. Ellsberg just gets in so well here with 53kg and he just has to handle the wet track to go close. The blinkers going back on suit. Order Again sets up well first up off a short break and he finds James McDonald here. Brutality will relish getting on a wet track and should run well, while Art Cadeau can bounce back.

BETTING ADVICE: Ellsberg the one they have to beat but he should drift. Order Again runs well at odds.

Brookspire can return with a win. Picture: Getty Images

R9: ELITE TURF PROJECTS HANDICAP (1300m)

Overview: Good race this. Brookspire resumes off a small break and she should appreciate the wet ground. I like the way Kobe Rocks has been trialling and he was very effective on wet ground last prep. Expat did a great job last prep and must also be respected, while Lady Of Luxury will have admirers at odds off the last start effort.

BETTING ADVICE: Brookspire a deserved favourite but this is a deep race.

R10: ELITE QUARRY PRODUCTS HANDICAP (1500m)

Overview: This looks a nice race for Francesco Guardi who was runner up at this track last start after being held up for half of the straight. He chased hard prior to that as well and he looks to get a good run here and finds James McDonald. Blesk just has to get through the wet ground to go close, while Too Much Caviar will run his usual honest race.

BETTING ADVICE: Francesco Guardi to win.

Originally published as Rosehill races: Brad Davidson’s tips and extended preview