Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Verry Elleegant has the Winx Stakes at her mercy, according to Ron Dufficy, but Ray Thomas is giving a stablemate another chance.

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances for the Winx Stakes meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

R4 No.11: LOVEPLANET

NEXT BEST

R2 No.7: RED SANTA

R9 No.1: ENTRIVIERE

BEST VALUE

R3 No.16: ENDURING NIGHT

RAY’S BEST

R5 No.8: MORE PROPHETS

VALUE BET

R4 No.10: CALIFORNIA LONGBOW

R1: TAB HIGHWAY (1100M)

Ron Dufficy: I’m going with the horse with the big weight, Battleground. He clearly has had the best lead-up run in that Saturday benchmark 72. He can probably race closer from the better draw and looks promising. I’m wary of the young three-year-old Baby Wong. He has had a freshen up waiting for this race and the dry track suits him. Fantini won nicely first-up and has raced well in a Highway previously. She will put herself on speed and prove hard to run down. Surooj made easy work of it going back to 1100m last start, she has been freshened since, Hugh Bowman goes on and barrier one helps.

Ray Thomas: In a typically open Highway, I thought Without Shame each way was a good bet. He hasn’t missed a place in his six-start career, winning once. His first-up effort at Gunnedah when second to Sportsman was good and he will be fitter. Drawn to get the right run. Battleground is the obvious choice. His first-up run was a beauty and he just needs luck in running to be in the finish. Very Sharp has a strong finishing sprint and I also rate Baby Wong as one of the main chances.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Baby Wong $12 unchanged ($800 @ $12), Battleground $5-$3.60-$3.20 ($400 @ $4.40, $340 @ $4, $350 @ $3.80, $384 @ $3.60)

R2: GOLD COAST TURF CLUB TROPHY (2400M)

Dufficy: Melbourne stayer Red Santa looks hard to beat. This is not a strong race, he has been to Sydney to race previously and raced well, he’s an honest horse and should run the 2400m right out. Shuffle Up is tough and genuine, and he’s coming off a good win at his first try over 2400m last start. Spencer might get control up front in a race like this and is always a chance. Mr Bond is way up in class but has won three of his past four starts.

Thomas: I’ve gone for Shuffle Up over Red Santa. Shuffle Up carried a big weight when he won convincingly over 2400m last start and he will be hard to beat again. Red Santa is going well and this does look a suitable race. Apache Belle is a strong stayer and is a lightweight hope. Mr Bond is an improver and should be competitive.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Shuffle Up $4.60-$3.90 ($300 @ $4.60, $600 @ $4.20, $300 @ $4), Mr Bond $15-$7.50-$7 ($210 x $200 e/w @ $15/$3.60, $500 @ $8, $1,000 e/w @ $7.50/$2.30, $2,000 @ $2.30 PLACE)

Melbourne visitor Red Santa should relish the 1400m. Picture: Tony Gough

R3: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1600M)

Dufficy: I think Enduring Night is the value runner of the day. She has better formlines than most in this race after running on strongly in a Benchmark 78 and stays at the same weight for this benchmark 72 and is fitter. She is big odds. Arctic Thunder scored a solid midweek win in similar grade last start and is racing well. She’s a genuine performer. Foxborough found dead ends and lost momentum first-up but Bowman goes on and I’m expecting an improved run at a mile. Majella maps nicely and could surprise.

Thomas: Monegal didn’t have a lot of galloping room and did hit the line strongly when sixth to Wairere Falls at Randwick three weeks ago. She is a handy mare, fitter for two runs back from a spell, finds herself in a suitable race and gets in well after the claim. Arctic Thunder was impressive last start and will be hard to beat again. Tampering and Majella also come off strong last start wins and will be in the finish.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Foxborough $13-$15-$11 ($200 x $300 e/w @ $15/$4.80), Majella $9.50-$8.50, Enduring Night $19-$14

R4: SAJC TROPHY (1600M)

Dufficy: Loveplanet is the bet of the day, Ray. I was taken by his appearance when he was well tried at his first Sydney run. He has quality about him, should be improved, will roll forward and prove hard to run down. Pesto is a big query. He’s had one soft trial leading into this and his two Australian runs last time in were excellent. Must include him. Re Edit did enough first-up and stays under notice. Badoosh is fit and threatening to win another race.

Thomas: I concede Loveplanet will be hard to beat but he is well found in the market. I’m going to have something on California Longbow at big odds. He ran on well without threatening Wairere Falls first-up, will be fitter for the run and will appreciate getting out to 1600m. Obviously Loveplanet is the one to beat as he ticks a lot of boxes here. Pesto is the query runner. This imported galloper has plenty of ability and he could win this race first-up without surprising. Wairere Falls has been up a long time but his last start win was dominant.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Loveplanet $2.80-$2.60 ($500 @ $2.60, $308 @ $2.60), Always Sure $26-$16 ($500 @ $15)

R5: GOW GATES HCP (1200M)

Dufficy: I think this is the hardest race of the day but I don’t mind the Godolphin pair Tamerlane and Geist. Tamerlane was terrific when going up in distance last start when ridden quieter. The runner-up that day. Selburose, ran well again last week to frank the form. From the good draw Tamerlane can run well at double figure odds. Geist has had a trial and a jumpout and although she is usually better second-up she might have something to say here. More Prophets is a frustrating mare. Nothing went right for her last start and she has to be given another chance. Nags To Riches is going really well and although she has to prove herself at 1200m she does get in nicely with the claim.

Thomas: More Prophets got held up for a run at a vital stage and when she finally got clear the race was over before her first-up sixth at Randwick two weeks ago. From her good draw, she can settle midfield and be within striking distance from the turn. With her brilliant acceleration, I think she will be too good for this field. Nags To Riches charged home to win at Kensington when resuming and she was stakes-placed in the autumn. Tamerlane will be finishing strongly and Cuban Royale is racing in good form.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: More Prophets $8.50-$5 ($275 @ $8.50, $300 @ $7.50, $200 @ $6.50, $500 @ $5), Geist $17-$13-$9 ($250 e/w @ $17/$5, $200 x $50 e/w @ $15/$4.80, $300 x $200 e/w @ $14/$4.40, $222 x $400 e/w @ $10/$3.40), Nags To Riches $8.50-$6.50

R6: SILVER SHADOW STAKES (1200M)

Dufficy: I’m keen on Four Moves Ahead. She is a top class filly, I loved her latest trial and she is ready to go. Although she is short enough in the market against a competitive field, she is the one to beat. Mallory is a filly I have always liked, her trials have been OK and she has a motor. We will learn more about her in this race. Swift Witness has had a couple of solid trials and is wound up for this race. Jamaea will have last look with her big finish.

Thomas: Same top four, Ronnie. Four Moves Ahead showed a lot of talent last season and she looks set for a big spring if her recent barrier trials are any indicated. With the scratching of She’s All Class, bad luck in running is Four Moves Ahead’s biggest danger. Mallory is another classy filly and I expect her to be running on strongly. Swift Witness will be in front for a long way and Jamaea is another who will be doing her best work on the line.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Four Moves Ahead $2.80-$2.90-$2 ($200 @ $2.90, $500 @ $2.80), Jamaea $11-$6.50

R7: SHOW COUNTY QUALITY (1200M)

Dufficy: I was taken by the trials of Prime Star. He’s an underrated horse up to this grade. Although he has only won two races he has competed at a good level all the way through. He just needs the right ride from his awkward draw. Embracer is going to find the front and is a proven first-up horse. He will be hard to run down. Private Eye came of age last preparation and the form around him is strong. The query I have is whether he will be sharp enough first-up on a dry track with the blinkers off. Chat has the fitness edge, is going well and is sure to be running on again.

Thomas: Private Eye made considerable progress last campaign and resumes off an outstanding trial win. Emerging galloper primed to sprint well fresh. The dry track suits Rock and with a solid up-front tempo, he will be finishing fast. Prime Star is another trialling brilliantly and Icebath is a class mare who can never be underestimated.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Splintex $6.50-$5.50, Chat $8.50-$6.50 ($200 e/w @ $7/$2.50)

Ron Dufficy is tipping Verry Elleegant to win back-to-back Winx Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

R8: WINX STAKES (1400M)

Dufficy: I have to go with the champion mare Verry Elleegant. It’s a similar set-up to last year when she reacted to win this race. She just has to be in front of these stayers early and James McDonald knows this mare so well, he knows how to ride her. He will make an early move and if she is within three lengths of them on the turn, it could be the end of the section. Kolding is the only starter that has had a lead-up and Randwick 1400m is his go. He will be a big improver. Hungry Heart did an outstanding job last preparation and I think she will be even better again as a four-year-old. Brandenburg is the best roughie. He has residual fitness from his Queensland campaign last winter when his form was good.

Thomas: Kolding disappointed some when resuming in the Expressway Stakes but he is not a 1200m sprinter. Fitter now and as you pointed out Ronnie, 1400m is more suitable. He is a Group 1 winner over this course and distance in the All Aged Stakes earlier this year. He can camp on the speed and be hard to run down. I’m expecting big things from Mo’unga this spring and he can sprint well fresh. Verry Elleegant is a champion mare and if she is close enough on the turn, then she can power over the top of this field. Hungry Heart went to a new level during the autumn and has the necessary acceleration to run a competitive race.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Kolding $6-$4.80-$5 ($200 @ $6, $300 @ $5), Think It Over $8-$8.50 ($300 x $200 e/w @ $8.50/$2.70, $200 e/w @ $8.50/$2.70), Imaging $26-$19-$21, Mo’unga $8 unchanged ($250 @ $8), Verry Elleegant $3-$2.90 ($500 @ $2.90)

R9: TOY SHOW QUALITY (1100M)

Dufficy: Entriviere is an outstanding mare. To do what she did last preparation, coming to Sydney and running so well after such a long campaign in New Zealand showed her class. Her trials have been good and although she is under an injury cloud, if she gets the tick from the veterinarians I think she can overpower this field late. Written Beauty lacked a bit of race sense last time in but hopefully she has rectified that with maturity. She should get into the right sport third on the fence and be hard to beat. Villami is big odds but she is a sharp mare who can run time. Tailleur has a great record, is nice and fresh and should park herself in a beautiful spot from the draw.

Thomas: Written Beauty is blessed with loads of natural speed, she has drawn perfectly, her trial form is encouraging and she is brilliant fresh. Entriviere is a classy mare but she has to overcome a minor hoof issue and wide barrier. Tailleur is capable of running fast times and rates among the main chances. Every Rose races on speed and will be in this for a long way.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Tailleur $6-$5.50 ($300 @ $6), Great News $34-$16-$11 ($200 x $100 e/w @ $14/$4.20), Written Beauty $7.50-$6, Matchmaker $18-$16-$17 ($250 x $200 e/w @ $18/$5)

Written Beauty can burn off her rivals. Picture: Getty Images

R10: DARWIN TURF CLUB TROPHY (1400M)

Dufficy: Atishu looks a smart former Kiwi mare now with the Chris Waller stable. She has looked outstanding in her two trials and could be a real improver this spring. I think she can win. Bullfinch is a good longshot. He is an import who hasn’t been asked to do much at the trials but I believe he is a talented horse. Bigboyroy gets McDonald, has the right draw, comes off a good first-up effort and can’t do anything but run well. Love Tap is a talented horse resuming and commands respect.

Thomas: I was trying to find something to beat Bigboyroy but he just stands out in this race. His first-up effort to nearly run down Frosty Rocks was good and that horse has since won again to confirm the form. Bigboyroy is going to get all the favours from his inside barrier and will be hard to beat. Academy is tough and genuine, Atishu looks promising and Love Tap is another talented type expected to sprint well fresh.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ventura Ocean $8-$8.50-$5.50 ($400 e/w @ $8.50/$2.90, $250 e/w @ $8/$2.80, $750 @ $8, $500 @ $8), Atishu $11-$5.50 ($200 x $334 e/w @ $11/$3.50, $250 x $400 e/w @ $9/$3, $250 x $150 e/w @ $7.50/$2.70), Love Tap $8-$7.50-$9 ($1,000 @ $7.50, $500 @ $7.50 TWICE)

SATURDAY EXTRA

BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

Race 2 No.8: GOVERNOR

Infinitely better than his debut performance on the Kensington track behind Brigantine and co. Trialled since and went like a bomb. Stick with him.

NEXT BEST

Race 1 No.12: BAY OF KIEL

Was something licked when finished a close third in town last start. Superbly-bred filly who has bigger fish to fry after this one. Go well.

VALUE BET

Race 3 No. 7: ENTOMOLOGIST

Was a lot better than it looks on paper when in the market and midfield behind the hugely exciting Jal Lei in a Kembla maiden on debut. Follow up.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 6,8,9

Race 5: 5,10

Race 6: 1,4

Race 7: 1,5,7,8

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Christian Reith is in the box seat to take out the TAB Jockeys Challenge with a great start to the day.

GILGANDRA

BEST BET

Race 2 No.5: CASTLEHYDE

Should be the day for the Coonamble visitor to post a well-earned first win. Ben thereabouts of late with back to back seconds in the lead-up

NEXT BEST

Race 6 No.4: VERTICAL

All comes down to how the horse deals with the tight track. Boasts a whirlwind finish and has been flying since he arrived at Moree.

VALUE BET

Race 5 No.3: MUSIC MISS

Blotted an otherwise long sequence of creditable runs when she ran last at Warren on July 6. Had the little break between runs and can get back on track this afternoon.

Originally published as Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis