Raceday focus: Tips, analysis and best bets for Cranbourne Cup Day on Saturday
Mankayan can end a run of minor placings with a win while a Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained runner could provide value for punters in the Cranbourne Cup.
Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters takes a look at the full nine-race card of Saturday’s Cranbourne Cup meeting. Plus, Nick Quinn’s Mailbag.
BEST BET
MANKAYAN (Race 8, No.3)
Mankayan produced another solid effort when close-up in the Hotham Handicap and this will be easier. Expecting him to finally break through this time.
VALUE BET
BRAZEN SONG (Race 5, No.3)
Brazen Song raced on the pace when giving a great sight in a $500,000 race at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day and will be better suited around the tighter Cranbourne track.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 5/1, 2, 3, 6, 11/3, 4, 6, 10/3, 6, 10
$100 flexi for 83.3 per cent
BIG6
3, 4, 6, 10/3, 6, 10/1, 2/2, 6, 10, 11, 14/1, 3, 9, 13/1, 3, 4, 5
$100 flexi for 5.2 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1, 2, 4, 7
Race 7: 2, 10, 11
Race 8: 1, 3, 9, 13
Race 9: 1, 3, 4, 5
$100 flexi for 52.08 per cent
RACE 1 (12:35PM): RHINO THE WRECKER 2YO PLATE (1000m)
Tough two-year-old race to start the Cranbourne Cup meeting, especially if the forecast rain arrives to complicate matters. Liked the last jumpout of the Maher and Eustace runner JAMARRA (5), a Duporth colt out of a Snitzel mare. YOU ESS ESS ARE (12) has won a couple of jumpouts and could produce a big run on debut. GREYT MUMMA (8) is from a top two-year-old camp and is worth including as is HIGHLAND HARLEY (4), who wasn’t disgraced on debut down the straight.
SUGGESTED BET: Small bet on Jamarra.
TAB MARKET MOVER: You Ess Ess Are $5 – $4.40
RACE 2 (1:10PM): O’BRIEN REAL ESTATE 3YO CRANBOURNE CLASSIC (2025m)
A small field will tackle the three-year-old staying race in which BLUSHING TYCOON (1) should be too good despite giving away 6kg to his opposition. He went down narrowly at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day and was close up at Caulfield two runs back. He’ll find this easier. TOROPEAK (5) is a maiden but was OK over a similar trip at Moe last time. THE AMAZONIAN (3) was well held at Group 2 level last time but should find this easier. STATION ONE (2) led and folded at Flemington but was an impressive maiden winner on this track on debut.
SUGGESTED BET: Blushing Tycoon to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Blushing Tycoon $1.80 – $1.75
RACE 3 (1:45PM): FRANKSTON SAND SIL & MINI MIX 3YO HANDICAP (1200m)
Staying around the top of the weights in this three-year-old affair. SCISSOR STEP (1) chased well when not far away in Group 3 company at The Valley and is drawn to get every chance. HE’S XCEPTIONAL (2) comes out of the same race at The Valley and won his maiden here. JIGSAW (3) struggled against older horses in the Caulfield Sprint but will be better suited back against his own age group. CHARTRES (6) tried hard when beaten a length first-up and will only be fitter for this.
SUGGESTED BET: Scissor Step to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: True Nobility $15 – $7.50
RACE 4 (2:20PM): FRANKSTON MAZDA SHOOTING STAR (1500m)
A rare Class 3 contest on a Saturday city card but the race should suit OUR LONE STAR (4), who did a good job to finish third at Bendigo on debut and he was a city winner over a bit further in the autumn. COMANCHE BRAVE (6) is a first-up winner and is likely to push forward to be in the firing line for a long way. MISTER ME (10) raced handy and only went down narrowly at Pakenham and will be just about at peak fitness for this. REAL SENSATION (3) got back but hit the line well in a country championship final at Flemington and will find this easier.
SUGGESTED BET: Our Lone Star to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Our Lone Star $5 – $4.60
RACE 5 (3PM): ROSEMONT STUD FILLIES & MARES PENDANT (1400m)
Happy to back BRAZEN SONG (3) in this race. She rolled forward before boxing on well in a $500,000 race at Flemington last week, which followed a steady effort in Group 2 company at Caulfield. She’ll get every chance and won her only run at Cranbourne. MAYBE THE BEST (10) led throughout to score at Bendigo and will be hard to beat again. APRIL RAIN (6) was OK in Group 3 level at Flemington and will find this easier. BELLE PLAISIR (2) will be fitter for two runs back and drops in class here.
SUGGESTED BET: Brazen Song to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: April Rain $2.10 – $1.90
RACE 6 (3:40PM): PROCON DEVELOPMENTS APACHE CAT CLASSIC (1000m)
Smallish field for one of the day’s features but DEXELATION (2) is well suited in his bid for a hat trick of wins after successes in Adelaide and The Valley at his first two runs this time in. Wet ground won’t worry him either. BLAZEJOWSKI (1) has been set for this race first-up and must be respected. SIR KALAHAD (7) likes racing on his home track and heavy ground will suit him. BLESS HER (4) was unsuited on a good track at Flemington last time out but could improve sharply if the forecast rain arrives.
SUGGESTED BET: Dexelation to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Dexelation $3.60 – $3.10
RACE 7 (4:20PM): LISTED TAB CRANBOURNE CUP (1600M)
A big field will chase $500,000 in prizemoney in the Cranbourne Cup with several serious winning chances. SO SI BON (2) is always around the mark in this type of race while OUR PLAYBOY (11) is unbeaten over 1600m and will be running on well again here. KING MAGNUS (10) wasn’t far away in Group 1 class at Flemington and must be considered in this.
SUGGESTED BET: So Si Bon each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Our Playboy $6 – $4.40
RACE 8 (5PM): REED CRANES & TRANSPORT MARATHON HANDICAP (2500m)
MANKAYAN (3) gets his chance to break through for a deserved win after several solid efforts this time in and he drops in class for this after a strong effort at Group 3 level at Flemington. NOBEL HEIGHTS (9) was a solid winner at Geelong third-up and can continue to progress. BRILLIANT VENTURE (13) is flying with wins at his last two runs and could measure up to this. STARCASTER (1) drops in class after competing at Group 2 level last time.
SUGGESTED BET: Mankayan to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Mankayan $4.40 – $3.30
RACE 9 (5:40PM): HERTZ HANDICAP (1300m)
The Cranbourne track might be chopped up by the time the last race is run, especially if the rain falls as expected. NAVAL ENVOY (5) might be able to pinch the race from the front after an excellent effort in Benchmark 90 grade at Flemington with the class drop to Benchmark 70 level to suit. HIGH ‘N’ DRY ran on well when resuming and will only be improved. IMPERIAL HILTON (3) is a smart type that will be thereabouts fresh. THE GENERAL (1) was OK behind a smart mare at Kyneton but races well at Cranbourne.
SUGGESTED BET: Naval Envoy each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Staredown $15 – $10
NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at Cranbourne and Newcastle.
BEST BET: SCISSOR STEP (Cranbourne, R3 No.1)
BEST VALUE: KOKORO (Newcastle, R7 No.7)
LAY OF THE WEEK: NONAME LANE (Morphettville, R1 No.1)
3YO HANDICAP (1200M)
Cranbourne, R3, 1.45pm
Scissor Step comes into this off the back of a narrow defeat at The Valley behind Generation and on a challenging program he shapes as one of the better winning chances.
His past two runs have been at Group level and from gate one he should get a nice run. He heads the market at $2.80 after opening $2.70.
The danger is at double-figure odds in Cheerful Legend. He won well at Mornington two starts back and at $12 is worth a saver.
At longer odds there is specking for Chartres, from $26 into $21.
THE TIP: SCISSOR STEP
CRANBOURNE CUP (1600M)
Cranbourne, R7 4.20pm
An incredibly open Cranbourne Cup where if you find the winner the value will take care of itself.
The money has come for Our Playboy, backed from $6 into $4.20. He is on the quick back-up after winning well at Flemington last Saturday and has won both his starts over 1600m.
The only negative is the wide draw of 17 but with all four emergencies drawn on his inside he will jump from gate 13 should all come out.
Buffalo River drops back from Group 1 level having finished just over five lengths away last start in the Group 1 Cantala. He will be in it for a long way.
Age Of Chivalry returned to the winner’s list at Flemington last Saturday and is another with claims.
THE TIP: OUR PLAYBOY
THE BEAUFORD (2300M)
Newcastle, R6, 3.20pm
This looks a nice chance for King’s Charisma to win his first Australian race and I’m keen to be on him at about $3.80.
He worked into the race nicely last start in the Hotham Handicap and stuck on well to finish 3.9 lengths from winner Great House.
Shared Ambition is racing in terrific form and has been backed from $4.60 into $4.20. He has chased home Think It Over at his past three starts and should find this easier.
Yonkers can be hard to catch but won the Shannon three starts ago and at his best would be a chance.
THE TIP: KING’S CHARISMA
THE HUNTER (1300M)
Newcastle, R8, 4.40pm
Lost And Running burst on to the scene winning six of his first seven starts. He heads the market here.
He was slightly underwhelming in his first two runs back this prep but returned to form with an eye-catching fourth in the TAB Everest before finishing second to Eduardo in the Classique Legend Stakes.
Lost And Running opened $2.50 on Monday and was backed into $2.30 by the time final field was declared. He is now $3.20 after drawing gate 17, and while he is still a winning chance, it is obviously a less than ideal draw.
Top Ranked is a fascinating runner set to make his Australian debut and has been backed from $6 into $5. Now trained by Annabel Neasham he won six of his 12 starts before relocating and is a perfect five from five first-up.
At longer odds there has been money for Prime Candidate, $26 into $16.
THE TIP: TOP RANKED
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