Raceday focus: Tips, analysis and best bets for Cox Plate day on Saturday
Punters can pick up some early cash to build a bank for an each-way play on an international runner in Saturday’s Cox Plate.
Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters previews every race for Saturday’s Cox Plate meeting at The Valley. Plus, Nick Quinn’s Mailbag.
BEST BET
STARRY LEGEND (Race 2, No.10)
Impressive three-year-old building an excellent record. He resumed with a strong Mornington win last month and will be hard to catch again from the perfect draw.
VALUE BET
STATE OF REST (Race 9, No.8)
The international runner is over the odds in the Cox Plate. He handled a tight track to score in the US last time out and Joseph O’Brien rarely misses when he sends a horse to Melbourne.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 2, 8, 9/4, 6, 7, 9 /1, 2, 3, 7/3, 4, 5
$100 flexi for 52.08 per cent
BIG6
1, 2, 3, 7/3, 4, 5/1/7, 8, 10/1, 3, 6, 8, 9/4, 5, 7, 9
$100 flexi for 13.88 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 1, 10
Race 8: 7, 8, 10, 13
Race 9: 1, 3, 6, 8, 9
Race 10: 4, 5, 7, 9
$100 flexi for 62.5 per cent
RACE 1 (12:15PM): INGLIS BANNER (1000m)
An extremely difficult start to the day with a field of largely unraced two-year-olds engaged. Have stuck with runners that will get a look at the running rail for guidance with BEMOTE (6) the top pick for the Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr stable, who always have a strong two-year-old team each season. TATTENHAM (4) has been solid in his jumpouts and could show up on debut. IDRIS (1) is bred for speed and has the services of Damien Oliver and barrier one. SEMILLION (2) jumped out well against older horses at Flemington.
SUGGESTED BET: Small bet Bemote to win – if you must.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Prairie Flower $31 – $11
RACE 2 (12:50PM): LADBROKES HANDICAP (1000m)
The speedsters will be on show in the 1000m scamper but happy to back STARRY LEGEND (10) to beat the older horses. He was well backed and scored comfortably first-up at Mornington with the second horse franking the form with an easy win in Adelaide since. RANTING (6) is a quality sprinter that might want a bit further but should be respected. FREE OF DEBT (2) wasn’t disgraced at Group 2 level last Saturday and will find this easier. DEXELATION (3) won first-up in Adelaide last time and never runs a bad race in Melbourne.
SUGGESTED BET: Starry Legend to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Starry Legend $5.50 – $3.10
RACE 3 (1:25PM): LISTED CROCKETT STAKES (1200m)
ROBODIRA (1) didn’t have much luck when beaten just over a length at Caulfield at Group 3 level last start and can bounce back with James McDonald in the saddle. DANCELITTLESISTER (9) was an impressive debut winner and could give them something to chase despite the massive class rise. OUR HEIDI (8) was solid on debut in the winter and could measure up to this. NEW YORK BABY (2) was nabbed late at Caulfield but should be thereabouts again.
SUGGESTED BET: Robodira to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: New York Baby $6 – $4.40
RACE 4 (2PM): GROUP 3 RED ANCHOR STAKES (1200m)
An even field of three-year-olds to tackle the Red Anchor Stakes but going with GENERATION (4), who is on the fresh side after two excellent efforts in August and September. He never runs a bad race. SUDOKO (6) got the job done at Sale first-up and will be much fitter for this harder assignment. TADWEER (7) is a promising gelding taking on stakes class for the first time but he’s showing enough to suggest he has a future. DOSH (9) ran well against older horses at Caulfield second-up and looks ready for her first crack at 1200m.
SUGGESTED BET: Generation to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Dosh $3.40 – $3.10
RACE 5 (2:35PM): GROUP 2 FILLIES CLASSIC (1600m)
Been following MARACANA (7) since her jumpouts and have been impressed with the way she lifts once she knuckles down to her task. She’s up in class for this but she can make the grade despite the tricky gate. HERESY (2) struggled in the Thousand Guineas but is worth another chance in this easier contest. FORTUNATE KISS (3) chased honestly in the Thousand Guineas and is one of the winning chances while VIANELLO (1) did best in a grinding finish at Caulfield and is worth thought again.
SUGGESTED BET: Maracana each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Fortunate Kiss $5 – $4.20
RACE 6 (3:10PM): GROUP 2 CRYSTAL MILE (1600m)
Interesting edition of the Schweppes Crystal Mile this year but thinking ELEPHANT (5) can bounce back after a tough run in the Toorak Handicap. He was excellent on this track in the Feehan Stakes and has drawn perfectly. BUFFALO RIVER (4) will be in action for the third straight Saturday but is racing well and can again control this race from the front. ROMANCER (3) is racing well this time in and can be thereabouts if he reproduces his last effort at Sandown. BEST OF DAYS (1) was narrowly beaten in this race in 2019 and stuck to his task well in Sydney last start.
SUGGESTED BET: Elephant to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Elephant $3.20 – $3
RACE 7 (3:45PM): GROUP 2 VASE (2040M)
The Victoria Derby picture will become clearer after the Vase, which is often a strong guide for Saturday week’s race. Expecting FORGOT YOU (1) to prove too strong at set weights. He’s unbeaten at The Valley but showed he was looking for further when sixth in the Caulfield Guineas. VILLADEN (10) has only had two starts but ran well against older horses at Ballarat and blinkers go on for this. EL ROCKO (4) is still a maiden but is handling each step up in trip so he could add value to exotics. BLACKCOMB (14) is progressing well towards the VRC Oaks and should enjoy the 2040m.
SUGGESTED BET: Forgot You to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Forgot You $2 – $1.95.
RACE 8 (4:25PM): GROUP 2 MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP (2500m)
The Moonee Valley Gold Cup is worth $1m for the first time but securing a Melbourne Cup start will be equally as important for some of these runners. PONDUS (10) went quickly in front first-up in the Bart Cummings and boxed on well. He’ll be much fitter for that and has again drawn well. THE GOOD FIGHT (8) was scratched from the Geelong Cup for this and should go well if the forecast rain arrives. LUNAR FLARE (13) is thriving over staying trips and should be competitive again. HARPO MARX (7) ran on well in the Metropolitan in Sydney and should measure up to this.
SUGGESTED BET: Pondus to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Pondus $5 – $3.90.
RACE 9 (5:10PM): GROUP 1 COX PLATE (2040m)
Solid edition of the Cox Plate and one that is far from clear-cut for punters. STATE OF REST (8) appeals as an each-way chance at decent odds after his Grade 1 win in the US, in which he showed a good turn of foot on a tight track. VERRY ELLEEGANT (6) turned in a rare disappointing effort in the Turnbull Stakes, but she can bounce back in the Cox Plate. ZAAKI (1) was also a shade disappointing in the Might And Power but is a class act that can be forgiven for that defeat. GOLD TRIP (3) has world class form with a strong fourth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe to his name and rain would help him.
SUGGESTED BET: State Of Rest each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Verry Elleegant $7 – $5.
RACE 10 (5:50PM): GROUP 3 TESIO STAKES (1600m)
The last will be the day’s toughest race for punters with the race behind the 18th held on The Valley track in 25 hours. ANNAVISTO (4) has drawn a touch awkwardly but that might not matter come the last of the day while she drops in class and weight after a solid effort at Flemington. MAGNA BELLA (5) went well in the Stocks Stakes over this course a month ago and has won a trial since. ONLY WORDS (7) is steadily working up to a win and has drawn to get every chance. GRACE AND HARMONY (9) closed well over this trip at Randwick second-up and will be further improved.
SUGGESTED BET: Annavisto to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Grace And Harmony $15 – $9.50.
NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at The Valley.
BEST BET: Floating Artist (The Valley, R8 No.12)
VALUE BET: Fake Love (The Valley, Friday night, R1 No.2)
LAY OF THE WEEK: Heresy (The Valley, R5 No.2)
CHEF’S HAT HANDICAP (1000M)
The Valley (Friday night), R1, 5.15pm
At long odds I am happy to be with the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained Fake Love.
She led and punctured late when resuming in a hot race at Caulfield which was won by General Beau.
She has been freshened since then and has the speed to lead from gate two.
At $13 and $3.10 the place I am happy to be with her.
It is a very competitive race with Starry Legend, Super Thief and Marine One all fighting for favouritism.
THE TIP: FAKE LOVE each-way
MANIKATO STAKES (1200M)
The Valley (Friday night), R7, 8.15pm
An even edition of the Manikato Stakes which will provide and a wonderful opportunity for connections to race for Group 1 status and prizemoney.
Savatoxl is a deserving favourite at $4.40.
The former Alice Springs star resumed from a spell with a strong win in the Schillaci Stakes and has a good second-up record with three wins from four attempts.
Savatoxl won the Group 1 Goodwood last preparation and should be in the finish.
The runner at each-way odds who holds appeal is the Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr-trained Lombardo, who opened $7 and has trimmed up in the past few days.
Like many of his rivals, he rises sharply in class but has been racing through the grades having won his past three starts and should be hard to beat.
Ingratiating was slightly underwhelming up the Flemington straight last start but has had a solid campaign including winning the Vain Stakes and can measure up.
THE TIP: LOMBARDO each-way
DRUMMOND GOLF VASE (2040M)
The Valley (Saturday), R7, 3.45pm
Forgot You comes into this race on the back of an eye-catching sixth in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas and looks well placed to win his third race this preparation en route to the Victoria Derby.
He has been backed from $2 into $1.90 to win on Saturday and is a $3.50 pre-post favourite for the Derby.
He looks a good anchor bet on Saturday and should he win stylishly that $3.50 for the Derby will be over the odds.
The runner at double odds for the multiples is the Chris Waller-trained Villaden, who has looked promising in two career starts and should appreciate the extra ground.
THE TIP: FORGOT YOU win
COX PLATE (2040M)
The Valley (Saturday), R9, 5.10pm
A fascinating Cox Plate with Zaaki now a $2.80 favourite.
The Annabel Neasham-trained runner resumed with a dominant win in the Tramway Stakes before a workmanlike performance in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes.
He was then beaten at short odds in the Might And Power and as a result has eased significantly for the Cox Plate.
If you can forgive last start, he is now an attractive betting prospect.
For mine I am willing to forgive last start, they didn’t nail the tactics and he raced on the wrong leg at crucial stages.
The other big tick is that he is reunited with star jockey James McDonald.
McDonald has ridden Zaaki five times for four victories.
Punters continue to back three-year-old star Anamoe.
He was a $15 chance before his tremendous win in the Caulfield Guineas and has been backed since the barrier draw.
Anamoe is now $4.80 after getting as short as $4 on Tuesday.
The last five thee year-olds to win the Cox Plate are Shamus Award (2013), So You Think (2009), Savabeel (2004), Octagonal (1995) and Red Anchor (1984).
Guineas runner-up Captivant is the other three-year-old in the field.
If there is to be a knockout it could come from the Joseph O’Brien-trained State Of Rest.
State Of Rest comes into the race without much fanfare, but was impressive when claiming the Group 1 Derby Invitational at Saratoga in the US in August.
I feel he is worth including in whatever you do at the double-figure odds.
Verry Elleegant is looking to bounce back after a rare poor performance by her standards last start when unplaced as a firm favourite in the Turnbull Stakes.
She must be respected and has been backed from $7 into $5 to be on the third line of betting.
THE TIP: ZAAKI win
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