Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Murwillumbah Cup meeting on Friday

Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn has good chances in every race for his home Cup meeting. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Murwillumbah trainer Matthew Dunn could have a big day at his home track on Friday. Picture: AAP

Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for the Rowley Mile meeting at Hawkesbury on Thursday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

MURWILLUMBAH

BEST BET

Race 6 No. 5: AMIRYKAL

She’s going better than what her last run suggest which was a horror show. She gets a good gate now and if she jumps and gets into a good spot she’s going to be hard to hold out at decent odds.

NEXT BEST

Race 5 No. 3: SWEEPING THE BOARD

He doesn’t win out of turn but hasn’t been in a race this easy for some time and last time he was on his home track he won a stronger race. He just needs to be nippy enough for 1100m.

VALUE BET

Race 7 No. 6: THIS IS SO

This lightly-raced seven-year-old comes up from a city stable and was great in his first run for Chloe Thomas in the Coffs Harbour Cup and this is an easier race.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 3, 4, 7, 8

Race 6: 1, 3, 5, 7

Race 7: 1, 3, 5, 6

Race 8: 3, 7, 9

TRAINER TO WATCH

How hard will Matthew Dunn be hard to beat? He’s got good chances in every race at his home track’s cup meeting and could win more than half of them.

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Jon Grisedale has good chances like Ausbred Cooee, Alpine Racer, Dollson and This Is So in the Cup.

Jockey Jon Grisedale speaks after winning the South Grafton Cup on Bodega Negra.

INSIDE MAIL: MURWILLUMBAH

RACE 1

Green Protector is here for a kill after showing more than enough in town in Brisbane to suggest he can win this race filled with mostly out of form horses. Sherriff Cody appears to be one that has success in front of him off a nice debut fourth at Lismore when coming from off the speed and just getting warm on the line over 1300m. The step up to 1550m now is obviously ideal and he could threaten the favourite. It’s hard to believe that Surmise hasn’t won a race or even finished better than third from nine runs. He’s got no excuses considering his fitness levels and getting out to this trip might be the key to him.

Bet: Exacta 1, 8.

RACE 2

Ausbred Cooee won two races with ease before being no match for them in the Coffs Harbour Cup, but now that he’s back in this grade he can continue his winning ways. Our Rebel races on his home track for the first time after some good form in Queensland including a first-up win last time out at the Gold Coast and he’ll make his own luck on the speed and the claim helps him run it out. Italian Princess will relish the distance and she’ll get a suck run in behind the leaders before being produced late then it’s up to her. She’s good enough to test them all the way.

Bet: Ausbred Cooee to win.

RACE 3

Matt Dunn’s three are battling it out for favouritism and the least experienced one, The Crown, might be the one to go over the other two who have proven to be inconsistent. The Crown won on debut and was clearly still a little green but that race day experience should be a big help here against Courageous and Emma Rosa. Scenic Sunrise is fresh off no trials and he’ll be the one sitting off the speed and coming at them late to give Dunn’s three a scare. Chrysla’s only win came at this track and she’s ran second first-up in the past.

Bet: The Crown to win.

RACE 4

Alpine Racer gets a much easier run this time from the gate after being caught wide first-up and going up to 1200m now from barrier one give him much more control of this race. Deliberation is peaking now third-up and will have to if he’s to justify his price in the market. There’s not much to beat there either. The Beat Goes On should return better after an improving first preparation including a close fourth behind Grey Defence which is pretty good form for a race like this.

Bet: Quinella 3, 6.

RACE 5

Matt Dunn has slapped the blinkers on Le Figaro after she didn’t quite go on with it at Doomben last start. Coming back in trip and grade suits her and can be the winning formula. Stablemate Sweeping The Board looks the main danger and is a much better second-up horse who won at his home track in January in a stronger race than this. He’s got to be right in this with a claim and inside gate as long as the 1100m isn’t too sharp. The Red One’s previous form is good but they don’t often win fresh off a year’s break.

Bet: Sweeping The Board to win.

RACE 6

Amirykal is well placed here and just needs to get away cleanly to take up a good position and from there she can go on with it and win. She copped terrible luck last start so ignore the 10th placing. There’s stable confidence about her. Superbowl Sunday gets the run of the race from barrier four while See It Thru looks to defend his title in this race and although he hasn’t won since he’s been racing well enough in Brisbane to give this a shake. He’s undefeated here from two attempts. Dollson is flying as is Rari so it’s an open sprint.

Bet: Amirykal each-way.

RACE 7

Willo Tittto has to win the Cup with 62kg on her back which is 3kg more than she lugged when running a close third behind Itz Lily in a much stronger Cup race so the weight rise is probably fair enough. This Is So carries 5.5kg less which could be enough to finish in front of Willo Titto when you look at how well he ran behind her in the Coffs Harbour Cup when making up ground late. Northern Knight has been coming u oust short of late but his consistency carries him a long way in this race. Ready To Humble’s form has been up and down but he comes here off a win.

Bet: This Is So each way.

RACE 8

Arctic Wolf gets a better barrier now which won’t force him to make a wide run a long way out like he did in the Ken Howard last start at Coffs Harbour. He drops in grade as well and the winkers are on for the first time and the distance isn’t an issue. Don’t underestimate Divine Diva on a form track after a close sixth at Doomben last time while Riot Act bolted in last time in a weaker Gold Coast race. It probably want a one-off though considering he’d performed well at the provincial in NSW before coming up to Matt Dunn’s yard.

Bet: Arctic Wolf to win.

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Murwillumbah Cup meeting on Friday