Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm

A Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou-trained gelding had solid form in his first race campaign and can resume with a well-earned win. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Training partners Gerald Ryan (right) Sterling Alexiou saddle up a couple of good chances at Warwick Farm on Wednesday including Silentsar. Picture: Getty Images

Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Warwick Farm.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

WARWICK FARM

BEST BET

Race 2, No.4: SILENTSAR

He ran into a few good ones at his first preparation including a subsequent Group 1 winner. He’s trialled well and has the right gate to make a winning return.

NEXT BEST

Race 1, No.6: CHILLED

She’s Victorian trained but was brought up to Sydney to trial and debut so it’s obviously been a plan. She looked good in her trial too.

VALUE BET

Race 6, No.7: VEGAS RAIDER

He didn’t get a lot of luck first-up when crowded on the fence and he’s over the odds if he goes around at $11.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 1, 2, 7, 8

Race 5: 2, 4, 9

Race 6: 2, 4, 6, 7

Race 7: 3, 5, 9, 11

Tim Clark looks a good chance to bookend the meeting at Warwick Farm. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Tim Clark is always in form and all his rides are winning chances starting off with the debutant Deciduous in the opener. High Blue Sea can give him a win in the last too.

TRAINER TO WATCH

David Payne has been waiting for the right race for his underrated Sweet Mercy and the fourth looks ideal.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR WARWICK FARM

RACE 1

Chilled is trained out of Mornington but has been brought up to Sydney to trial and debut. The filly looked very comfortable in her only heat and the same jockey is on from the inside gate. Tim Clark has trialled Deciduous both times ahead of his debut run and like a typical Waterhouse/Bott horse, he’s ready to roll. Los Padres looked good in his trial but gets the widest gate on debut. Denman Star and Miss Belgium will both be better for their debut runs. There’s a case to be made for just about all of this field.

Bet: Chilled to win

RACE 2

Silentsar was in some good form races in his first preparation when running against a subsequent Group 1 winner. He trialled in comfortable fashion and has the gate to make a bright return. Windshadow is the only debutant of the field but is trained in a leading stable, looked fairly good in his barrier trial and an in-form jockey is on from a fair gate. The Lions’ Gate looked to have returned a much better horse after the benefit of a preparation and barrier four looks perfect. Exsensible can come across from a wide gate to lead or sit outside the leader and give a sight.

Bet: Silentsar to win

Apprentice Reece Jones rides Freedom Square at Warwick Farm. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 3

Taraashoq should be leading this. He is third-up now and back in trip so the fitness is there and he will be doing his best to make it hard to get past him. Freedom Square ran into a good one first-up over a less than suitable trip. He thrives at a mile and runs well second-up so he gets things to suit now. Duke Of Buckingham also loves 1600m and won over it at Wyong last start. He is probably a better horse on a bigger track too so he’s going to have plenty of support. Da Nang Star helps to make this race have plenty of speed in front.

Bet: Freedom Square to win

RACE 4

Kouklara is probably better suited to his home track after a fresh win and has the top apprentice on with some weight relief. Ellenmac went really well last start against a fairly good horse. She has good form around her from previous starts and the mile suits. Sweet Mercy ran above her odds yet again last start and must be the value runner here for an underrated trainer. Thinking Rain ran in a Group 2 race a few starts back and was a potential VRC Oaks horse at the start of the spring. Dubai Showgirl will push forward but she tends to run a place more than win.

Bet: Sweet Marcy to win

RACE 5

Just A Jedi drops in grade and carries winnable weight here as a very fit horse. He should run the trip and a dry track won’t hurt. Credit Crunch is well suited at this distance and in this grade. Some rain would help her too and she is ready to run a big race. Bak Da Man couldn’t get out early enough to make a charge at the leaders. He’s obviously knocking on the door and should get his chance now. It’s the plan to give Olympic Theatre a quick back up here so respect the placement.

Bet: Just A Jedi to win

Brenton Avdulla partners Just A Jedi on Wednesday. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 6

Vegas Raider didn’t get a lot of clear air first-up at Newcastle when the favoured runner won and he ran third. If he’s still double figure odds when they head to the barriers, he’s over the odds. It means he might be able to turn the tables on With Your Blessing who finished in front of him last start by a little more than a length. Way To The Stars will sit on the speed and be better for the first-up run when he wasn’t far off the winner. Suprina is ticking along well and it’s hard to see him not fighting out the finish.

Bet: Vegas Raider to win

RACE 7

High Blue Sea led last start to get the job done at the midweeks and did it well too. Tim Clark stays on which is an obvious plus and he can take his time coming across from a wide gate. Marillier should also come across from a wide gate and sit on the speed. She’s very fit and should be in this for a long way. She has drawn a much better gate this time. Ponca should enjoy the extra 100m after a 1200m win at Gosford and the bigger track is a plus for her. She’s here at the right time third-up. Hellavadancer wasn’t knocked around in her latest barrier trial and she showed more than enough promise last preparation.

Bet: Marillier to win

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm