Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Tuncurry, Tamworth
John Sprague trained filly Cavente has placed at her two runs this preparation and should be returning home to Port Macquarie from Tuncurry with her first win on Tuesday.
Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over the Quaddie legs at Tuncurry and Tamworth.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
TUNCURRY
BEST BET
Race 3, No.11: CAVENTE
This John Sprague-trained filly has come back in good shape this prep with back-to-back placings, one of them a third behind the handy Boss at Port Macquarie. Drawn to win.
NEXT BEST
Race 6, No.1: ECHOES OF MY MIND
Huge horse who won his first start for Paul Shailer. Has trialled since and this looks the perfect race for him again here.
VALUE BET
Race 2, No.6: HIGHBURY
Has only won one from 21 but has placed 11 times; seven of them seconds. He is often in better races than this one too.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 3,6,11,12
Race 6: 1,9,11
Race 7: 1,3,7,9
Race 8: 2,5
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Aaron Bullock has ridden 15 winners in the last 16 days. Incredible but true.
TAMWORTH
BEST BET
Race 4, No.2 BIT OF A STEP
Has either been unlucky or the eye-catcher in his three starts so far. Might be better than these.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.10: ISLAND TIDE
Should have finished much higher up the order at Newcastle last start. Hard to beat in this grade.
VALUE BET
Race 5, No.7: THE LION
Highway winner racing at home where he always goes well. Just won’t want it heavy.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR TUNCURRY
RACE 5
Lady Chartwell is trained by Kris Lees and is out of a half-sister to his champion filly, Samantha Miss. Bit glib to say that this one won’t be retiring as a triple Group 1 winner - or going to Frankel - but this is a Tuncurry maiden and thus well within her reach. Street Candi has placed at four of her nine starts and while neither of them have come first-up as she is on Tuesday, Kristen Buchanan has her more or less ready to dig in after that recent trial win at Newcastle. Quick As A Flash will find this easier than anything she has yet contested.
Bet: Lady Chartwell to win
RACE 6
Echoes Of My Mind is a grandson of Encosta De Lago and like him, this Paul Shailer-trained gelding is big. Huge in fact. A former Queenslander, he arrived at Shailer’s stables as a four start maiden but it was no surprise that he came out and won his first run for the new management. Has trialled very well in the intervening period. Curracabundi was working her way up to that win at Taree last start. On-pacer who is sure to be prominent again is at all possible. Jimmy Manolo has mixed and matched it with better horses in better races such Kazalark for example.
Bet: Echoes Of My Mind to win
RACE 7
Ugly Nicos is not a guaranteed starter but keep an eye on him for future reference. He is flying. His absence would open the doors for the Kris Lees-trained mare Star Impact who has done some good things in her 11 starts, namely a win, three seconds and a third. She has been to Tuncurry once before and finished second and was runner-up at her last start. Topped off by Bullock and the barrier. Tick and tick. Icing On The Cake represents value here for Bucko fans. She was a long way down the order but not far from the winner at Kempsey last start.
Bet: Ugly Nicos to win or if scratched Star Impact to win
RACE 8
Duble Memory is not quite in the Tom Melbourne league but he is heading that way with five straight second placings leading into Tuesday’s race. The Wayne Wilkes-trained gelding almost broke the sequence two starts ago but was nosed out of top spot at Port Macquarie. Really deserves a win and he’s got the right barrier and the talent to get his just reward. Could easily see Aaron Bullock add another to his truly amazing tally of winners on the Kris Lees-trained Willinga Freefall who is looking to stay unbeaten. Dylan Gibbons has ridden this unbeaten gelding in both of his wins so far.
Bet: Duble Memory each-way, quinella 2,5
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR TAMWORTH
The Lion is a Highway winner with earnings of circa $200,000 so he’s a good horse. He has had 63 starts for six wins and nine placings but better still, his record here at home is two starts for a win and a third. All it comes down to is the condition of the track. Bit worried if it is Heavy. Not sure whether Leave Me Be comes but she is a big player if she does. Ditto all that for the aptly named Weather Channel given the rain about on Monday. Star Impact could win on Tuesday, but it will be here at Tamworth or at Tuncurry. Dawntillarvi is quite adept on Soft tracks but is unplaced in her two starts on the slop. Rupicasso ran well in a deep Class 2 at Tamworth when resuming.
Bet: The Lion to win on Good or Soft only
RACE 6
Stormy Pluck is a much loved horse owned and bred by Pine Lodge Thoroughbreds who have been around in this business for decades. Probably longer than this mare’s famous ancestor Rainbird who won the 1845 Melbourne Cup. As for the mare herself, Stormy Pluck has only won twice in her 25 starts but she has placed eight times and a lot of her placings would have been wins but for her pattern and a bit of bad luck here and there. Kneeze was eight of 11 first-up at Mudgee but was closing off well and has been placed two of three when taken to Tamworth. Has won on Heavy. Macleay is a player if he comes.
Bet: Stormy Pluck to win
RACE 7
Our Boy Ollie is the much younger and less experienced stablemate of aforementioned The Lion. You would nearly bet London to a Brick that he will end up winning at least as many races and more money than his Highway winning buddy. He was a good thing last start here but not many of us would have expected him to run them off their feet like he did that day. Meter Maid is also a last start winner from barrier to post. That was a Heavy 8 but her trainer Angela Davies didn’t exactly sound bullish about her on anything worse than Soft so caveat emptor. Lightfast ticks pretty much every box and almost ‘has’ to go in somewhere.
Bet: Our Boy Ollie to win
RACE 8
Alicia Roma is most unlikely to come which would pave the way for Kris Lees’ very good looking gelding Brudenell to post what would be his second win at start number five on Tuesday. This son of Russian Revolution goes back decades, family wise, out there at Macquarie Stud and comes from one of their most winningest pedigrees. No wonder he can gallop. Shooting Za has done enough to warrant deep respect. Take note that his only win so far came first-up as she is this afternoon.
Bet: Brudenell to win if Alicia Roma if scratched
Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Tuncurry, Tamworth
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