Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Port Macquarie

Having placed at three of his last four starts, a Natasha Hall-Antonio-trained gelding is poised to breakthrough for his first win.

Racing in New South Wales on Thursday is at Port Macquarie.

Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Port Macquarie.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

PORT MACQUARIE

BEST BET

Race 1, No.5: GOLDEN BUTTON

He’s run second at three of his past four starts and has found what looks to be a fairly weak maiden to breakthrough in.

NEXT BEST

Race 6, No.7: MOVIN’ DENMAN

He’s been racing in a harder part of the state to win. He ran on for second at Muswellbrook last start which was a brave effort after getting caught wide.

VALUE BET

Race 8, No.1: LAPHROAIG

The class factor takes him a long way after a freshen-up since running in the Port Macquarie Cup. If he’s fresh enough for 1500m, he’s a big threat.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 2, 3, 14, 16

Race 6: 6, 8, 9, 10

Race 7: 1, 2, 3

Race 8: 1, 2, 4, 6

Jockey Ashley Morgan has a number of good rides at Port Macquarie on Thursday.

JOCKEY TO WATCH

One of the state’s leading, riders Ashley Morgan, can have success on the likes of Dante Alighieri, Crowned Empress and Ghost Hunter.

TRAINER TO WATCH

Cassandra Schmidt looks to have found good races for her three runners with Leave Me Some and Justadude the standout hopes.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR PORT MACQUARIE

RACE 1

Golden Button probably sits one out and a few pairs back which is ideal. He’s still looking for his first win but it should be coming very soon given his form of late. It’s hard to not see him fighting this out in what looks to be a fairly weak race which is evident when Crown’m is in the market. Dante Alighieri is on a quick back up here off a placing at Muswellbrook last start on a bog track and as long as that didn’t flatten him, he’ll be in this. Rising Tide is only having his fourth start and should be getting better.

Bet: Golden Button to win

RACE 2

Rockabarton Ruby ran on well over 1350m last start and is ready to go up to 1500m now on a firmer track. She’s been coming from behind on heavy tracks of late which is hard to do so this sets up better. Da Nang Star should be on the speed and is well placed here after running in some handy races of late. Millennium Jewel got batter into her prep last time in and loves racing here so look for a better performance. Mauricently will be better suited getting off a heavy track now. She got to a Group 1 race in the autumn.

Bet: Rockabarton Ruby to win

RACE 3

Leave Me Some has the fitness edge on some of these and thrives at the track and distance. A soft surface is ideal. Two Up didn’t look fantastic in is latest trial but you’ve got to respect his fresh form and this is the easiest race he’s been on for a long time. Time For Victory lost in a photo finish last start at the provincials and before that he won here so look for a good run even though he may be suspect in the final 50m. Chase My Crown hasn’t missed a top three placing at this track.

Bet: Time For Victory to win

Jeff Penza rides Time For Victory on Thursday.

RACE 4

Reateros was driven out to win a barrier trial off a long break and is suitably placed for his fresh run from a decent gate in a big field. Canny Prospect went over the line in third last start and wasn’t weakening and he will run well again in favourable conditions. Osterberg has drawn wide but will jump and push forward to probably sit outside the leader. He’s got his best racing in front of him. Frosbie looked fairly good in his latest barrier trial and is in good hands.

Bet: Canny Prospect to win

RACE 5

Discreet Lady has gone down by a half-length at her past two starts but is coming back a little in trip which might be an issue for her. Luke Rolls knows her well and stays on which is a plus. Boss has drawn to get an ideal run fresh after showing promise at his first preparation and he’s in a decent yard so back him to run well off no barrier trials. Northern Impact ran into second in his latest barrier trial and from a wide draw he probably takes a sit and looks to come home down the outside with his run.

Bet: Boss to win

RACE 6

The locally-trained Ghost Hunter has put in a couple of decent runs this preparation when ridden just behind the leaders and that should be the tactics again as a very fit horse. Icing On The Cake has the gate speed to lead this from barrier one and he scored here two back since going for a spell and should win more races in this part of the state after being trained in town early on. Wannawinwin has only missed a placing on her home track once in five attempts and won at this trip fresh.

Bet: Icing On The Cake to win

RACE 7

Outreach To Henry stunned them here first-up as a $15 chance. He led and went on to score by five lengths so he’s obviously turned the corner in his spell. The win was on a Heavy 10, however, and now he’s on top of the ground so that’s a query. Movin’ Denman has been threatening to win one for some time now and bringing him away from the central distracts and to the mid north coast might do the trick. Justadude has put in two good runs this time in and peaks now over a little more ground which looks ideal.

Bet: Movin’ Denman to win

RACE 8

Laphroaig has been given a five-week freshen up since running ninth in the strong Port Macquarie Cup (2000m) so if he can go with them over 1500m he can win with the class factor on his side. Mister Smartee is a hard one to catch but is going well enough to be a force after his close sixth last week in the Kempsey Cup and half his career wins have come at this track. Broad Outlook has one two of his past three in lesser grade but this is a natural progression for a horse who is fairly lightly raced and coming into the best part of his career.

Bet: Laphroaig to win

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Port Macquarie