Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Newcastle
A Gary Nickson-trained gelding has looked the part in his two barrier trials in readiness for what could be a memorable debut. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL
Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Newcastle.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
NEWCASTLE
BEST BET
Race 1, No.1: FELIX MAJESTIC
Smart Missile three-year-old on debut. Trialled like a horse that is loaded with natural talent.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.1: TAMAR
Could easily turn into a ‘nice horse’ down the track. Has the right pedigree and trainer.
VALUE BET
Race 8, No.13: SO DAZZLING
Was $3.70 to win this race and $6 to win the VRC Oaks. She might end up winning both.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 3,6,8
Race 6: 1,3,8,12
Race 7: 3,6,12
Race 8: 13
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
William Pike can win the TAB Jockeys Challenge with a little help from John Sargent.
QUEANBEYAN
BEST BET
Race 3, No.6: LITTLE LANAI
Jason Coyle-trained mare who is unlucky not to be a city winner; she still might.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.7: GREAT WEEK
Son of Frankel who is building up to his maiden win. Just needs to handle the heavy conditions.
VALUE BET
Race 6, No.14: QUEEN OF THE STARS
If there is a horse going around that is better than the C.V, it is this filly.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR NEWCASTLE
RACE 1
Felix Majestic finished like a rocket when he ran fourth in his first trial on Feb 18. Fast forward to June 24 and this time he won, leading on the rails, and just did it all like a horse that has talent and who will be winning plenty of races. Drawn shouldn’t hurt him and the breed invariably do handle the wet. Karedada likewise has sent out some very positive signs on his trials. Shamal Wind’s daughter Laroupe has been primed for this. Shadow Vampire was huge in town first-up. He will be charging home again.
Bet: Felix Majestic to win
RACE 2
Tragara is a flashy filly who has always shown herself to be a little bit above average. She led and was passed late by a couple of handy types when she resumed here on Sept 17. Has to be fitter again and barrier 1 is a lot better than nine of 12 the other day. Big watch on another of the flashy chestnuts in the race namely Extreme Merger. This colt’s dam, Imananabaa, won a Grade 1 and he’s been impressive in both trials. Lady Chartwell doesn’t scream ‘muddie’ but you never know. If it was a Good 4, Aster wins by panels.
Bet: Tragara to win, quinella 10,2
RACE 3
Tamar might end up being a very good horse for Paul Perry and connections. He has a pedigree that should see him hang around for a long time and probably even go right up to 2400m in the mid to long term. He is of course by Tavistock; his third dam is by Nashwan, his fourth is by Secretariat. That was a fantastic debut here. Youthful is one for the ‘system’ players. That is to say that she is first-up out of a Group 1 classic. World Atlas hasn’t raced on Heavy but was an easy winner of a trial one day at Gosford on an 8 if that helps any.
Bet: Tamar to win, exacta 1 to beat 4
RACE 4
Smart Little Miss was bred by her trainer Ron Quinton who also bred Mnemosyne going back a few years. As for Smart Little Miss, she drew 10 of 10 and was still ninth at the turn before passing all of her rivals to win at Kembla. Kudos to the horse and trainer but it was some ride by Louise Day. Harder here but she is up to the challenge. Viennoiserie won like a deadset champion on debut. She ran seventh of 12 first-up this prep but it was an infinitely better run than it looks on paper. Bit of X-factor about this one. Could say the same about Razeta.
Bet: Smart Little Miss to win, quinella 5,6
RACE 5
Sir Kerm was just so impressive winning his first race start here at home on Sept 24. The margin reads as almost a length but he was being eased down late and the runner-up was motoring. You see wins like that from horses that invariably come out and win again and again after that. It’s the big step from maiden to a Class 1 but this is a city horse every day of the week sooner or later. Czar was heavily backed first-up and without being unduly harsh on the horse, he did only run third of six. The ‘best’ Iron Hat would be guaranteed a medal.
Bet: Sir Kerm to win
RACE 6
Centrestone was sold for $180,000 at the Classic Yearling Sale which is cheap for a filly (now mare) whose grandam is Camarena and great-grandam is Canny Lass. Her two September trials were fantastic. The same goes for the Kolivos/Newnham gelding Diamond Drummer. He did some good things at his first campaign and does seem to have come back a better horse. Better Not Bitter is a Kris Lees trained Irish import who ran well in a deep maiden at his Australian debut having placed at the Curragh at his only other start.
Bet: Centrestone to win
RACE 7
McGeehan is as important a ‘market watch’ horse as any racing on the day. For starters he is from a very astute stable. There wouldn’t be many better ‘horsemen’ in the training ranks than Paul Cave who together with co-trainer Martha, know McGeehan’s family like their own. The horse has won on a 10 at Kembla and the trials have been terrific. Perfect Thought is the one to beat if we got back to a Soft 7 but just not sold on him on a Heavy 9 or a 10. Cool Lad has never been closer to another win. Peaks here. Acceber and Trust The Process want 1500m now.
Bet: McGeehan each-way
RACE 8
So Dazzling was priced at $3.70 on the TAB Fixed Odds to win the last at Newcastle. She was $6 equal favourite to win the VRC Oaks on November 5 so whether that is still available come 6pm remains to be seen. In terms of the filly herself, she is a So You Think with the classic master himself, John Sargent, and just seems to be on an upward trajectory. Bunker Hut looks like he is in the Gloaming on Wednesday. Domingo is a horse with a long and potentially lucrative career ahead of him given he might go a mile to 2400m.
Bet: So Dazzling to win
Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Newcastle
The Valley Friday night tips: $5.50 best bet
A Ciaron Maher-trained galloper could build on a fighting first-up win when he heads to The Valley on Friday night.
Rain only concern for Moody filly at Flemington
Talented filly Eneeza has one box left to tick this spring when she begins her campaign in the Group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington on Saturday.
Sargent buoyed by Sea’s Group 1 potential
With one eye on Group 1 goals later this spring, trainer John Sargent is expecting China Sea to lay down a marker in Saturday’s Listed $200,000 Dulcify Stakes (1600m) at Royal Randwick.