Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla

A Godolphin two-year-old returns for his second campaign as a gelding and two nice recent trials have him set for a first-up win. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Los Padres resumes as a gelding and can kick off his campaign with a win at Kembla on Thursday. Picture: Bradley Photos

Daily Telegraph form analyst Adam Sherry gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kembla.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KEMBLA

BEST BET

Race 4 No. 4: HOUSE OF CARDS

The Michael Freedman-trained colt caught there eye on debut when a fast-finishing fifth after coming from last on the Kensington and held up until well into the straight. Drawn well.

NEXT BEST

Race 1 No. 3: TEN DOWNING STREET

The cleverly-named son of Churchill showed the benefit of his first-up run when a closing third at Gosford. Well placed to break through.

VALUE BET

Race 7 No. 10: LOS PADRES

Showed handy ability but mixed his form last campaign. Resumes as a gelding and has trialled nicely.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1, 2, 3, 4

Race 6: 1, 3, 8

Race 7: 1, 8, 10, 11

Race 8: 3, 4, 10, 12

Tyler Schiller looks set for a big day at Kembla on Thursday. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Tyler Schiller has a quality book of rides and looks hard to beat in the TAB Jockey Challenge.

BALLINA

BEST BET

Race 4 No. 3: BURDEKIN

He copped a check in the run at Lismore last start and didn’t close off like he can. Handy second when resuming and can bounce back here.

VALUE BET

Race 6 No. 6 MONEY BEAR

Scored a handy win three starts back and both runs since have been handy. Drawn perfectly in barrier 1.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KEMBLA

RACE 1

Ten Downing Street made ground from last when sixth to Line Of Fire on debut at Mudgee before settling closer from gate 1 when a length third to Sonny Fella at Gosford on July 13. Drawn the pole again. Nicodemus settled worse than midfield on the fence when fifth to Diamond Drummer at Goulburn last start. Placed two of his previous three and not far away in the other. Irish Anthem was held up on the fence in the straight and unable to build momentum until dragging back and across heels before closing off for third to Futtaim at Newcastle second-up. Should have finished much closer. Devon County is resuming and will run well.

Bet: Ten Downing Street to win

RACE 2

Rock Girls was a long neck third to Canada Bay on debut over 1100m at Canterbury on July 12. She will make her presence felt stepping up to 1300m. Avonview, a descendant of Doncaster winner Skating, trialled quite well twice before joining the Anthony Cummings stable. Drawn well and will be prominent. River Tamar has also been good in her recent trials and will make her presence felt. Picko Rocks has placed in four of his six starts and can figure in the finish first-up.

Bet: Rock Girls to win

RACE 3

Densaur drew 14 of 14 and was trapped out four wide when finishing a game fifth behind Ninja Star when resuming at Moruya on July 14. Drawn much better this time and can break through for his maiden win. Essentia didn’t have the early speed and settled a clear last before making a little ground when sixth to Free Enterprise over 1100m on debut at Gosford. Showed better early speed in her Gosford trial June 20. Windmill Road is a Sara Ryan-trained debutant from a half-sister to Villiers winner Rudy. Led all-the-way to win his Wyong trial on July 10. Gypsy King can be included in the multiples.

Bet: Densaur to win

House Of Cards looks a great chance to score at Kembla on Thursday. Picture: Bradley Photos

RACE 4

House Of Cards settled last and was held on straightening before getting clear passing the 200m and closing nicely for an unlucky 2-1/2-length fifth to Sicilian on debut on the Kensington on July 5. He should relish stepping up to 1300m. Andronicus drifted back to last from a wide draw before closing strongly for a length second to Diabelli on debut at Newcastle on July 8. Drawn out again but will have taken improvement from the run. Mr Caleb had no luck when fifth at Eagle Farm back in March and should have just about won. Trials have been okay. Supreme Command was just beaten by A Silvery Warrior at Gosford second-up.

Bet: House Of Cards to win

RACE 5

Skylight Song is knocking on the door after being runner-up at his past two starts behind Invictus lad and Hollywood Hero respectively and third before that all at Wyong. Drawn to get an ideal run and can break through. C’mon Mate won his maiden by a length from Liangelo here on July 1 before a fourth to Vindication over 1200m at Wyong. Steps up to 1400m for the first time. Modern Millie only has on win but has seven placings to her name. Will take benefit from her first-up sixth to Hellavadancer and has placed three from four second-up. Slickman came from a long way back when a 3-1/4-length sixth to Stars And Bars here last week.

Bet: Skylight Song to win

RACE 6

Oakfield Prince resumed from a spell for new stable with a fair third behind Big Happiness under 61.5kg over 1280m at Muswellbrook. The blinkers go back on here and he will appreciate stepping up to 1400m. Pennypacker was a nice third to Oakfield Mahogany first-up here before going back from a wide gate and working home well for fourth to Pink Baroque over 1250m at Canterbury. Drawn well and looks the hardest to beat. Golden Gate was just nosed out by Tupou on the Beaumont two starts back. Got back when fourth to Principessa on the Kensington track last start. Drawn out again but can finish in the money. Xcited was good in his first campaign.

Bet: Oakfield Prince each-way

The blinkers go back on Oakfield Prince second-up at Kembla. Picture: Bradley Photos

RACE 7

Los Padres is taking on the older horses here. Was gelded after his first campaign which netted a handy win at Gosford and a third at Warwick Farm. Wasn’t extended when a close fourth to Imposant in his recent Wyong trial. Announcing has placed fourth at Newcastle and Hawkesbury in both runs back from a spell in June. Back to 1200m and blinkers go back on. Fangela was a Canberra winner two starts back in October before a sixth at Canterbury in December. Resuming from a long spell but has good first-up stats. Emancipist has plenty of talent but doesn’t always bring it to the races. Nice win at Goulburn to starts back and will be closing late.

Bet: Los Padres each-way

RACE 8

Moorestown carted the field up to Good Omens who rolled along in front and did a good job to hold out Leandra over 1500m at Hawkesbury on July 9. Was a narrow second to Leandra over 1300m at the same track the start prior. Drawn out again but should appreciate stepping up to the mile. Silk Tie was good to the line when fourth to Cream Rises here before his second to Epicus at Canterbury last start. Satness was rewarded for his consistent form with nice win at Gosford two weeks ago. Will be prominent again. Alfano got clear late to win here on June 27. Battled away for sixth to Ruby Flyer at Warwick Farm last week. Drawn out but back to a track he likes.

Bet: Moorestown to win

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla