Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla
A Ron Quinton-trained mare is ready to post another win when she steps up to what should be her optimal trip at Kembla on Tuesday. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL
Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kembla.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET
Race 1, No.5: CALM DOWN
A Savabeel mare who has won or placed at eight of her 10 starts. She has always wanted 2000m and gets her chance over that trip here.
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.7: CALL DI
A Frankel daughter of Samantha Miss who is already stakes-placed and will be a stakes-winner soon.
VALUE BET
Race 6, No.11: KEYS TO LOVE
Should have finished a lot higher up the order here 17-days ago. She is better than an 18 start maiden.
QUADDIE
Race 4: 6,7
Race 5: 1,2,3,9
Race 6: 3,11
Race 7: 4,5
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Andrew Adkins and Ron Quinton, the old master and apprentice pairing, combine twice at Kembla with grand prospects.
GRAFTON
BEST BET
Race 6, No.12: TWIGMAN
Lightly-raced and exciting three-year-old from the Paul Shailer yard who looks bound for much better races.
NEXT BET
Race 1, No.1: LASTING KISS
Has won seven out of 20 together with six placings which is almost reason enough alone to back her.
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.1: ECHOES OF MY MIND
Form reads ‘321’ in his three runs for Paul Shailer. He is a horse on an upward trajectory.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KEMBLA GRANGE
RACE 1
Calm Down races in the colours of her owner/breeders, Waikato Stud, and is by their resident champion Savabeel. The mare has raced 10 times for one win and seven placings, one or two of those were luckless. Ron Quinton has placed her to perfection and what’s more, he has given her the ideal build-up to 2000m which she should relish given the breeding. Western Front came down from France with a tidy little record. His lone win, so far, was at 2000m, and the Australian debut over the mile was outstanding. John Sargent trained Eight Carat descendant Xtrarevz is a last start 2000m winner. Thailand is a fit horse who deserves some reward for recent efforts.
Bet: Calm Down to win
RACE 2
Insurrection has more or less only run one bad race in his eight start career and that was on a Heavy 9 in the Kindergarten. Has been trialling very well indeed. Nasdaq Dubai made a stunning return to the races after a prolonged absence, running 56.66 seconds in a 1000m maiden here on January 14. Second-up off almost 12 months away and into a Class 1 but he is clearly smarter than the average horse. Godolphin gelding Chopin should make it to the midweeks this prep. Rotorua has ‘a winning draw’ and the talent to match. Just a little aside about Rotorua; she is a half-sister to last month’s Hong Kong Sprint winner Wellington.
Bet: Insurrection to win, quinella 1,2
RACE 3
Ludo is a fascinating horse on debut. Trained by Chris Waller, this NZ-bred gelding is by I Am Invincible and is a half-brother to Scott Base who beat Embellish in the rich Karaka Classic in 2018. Ludo is also closely related to Outback Prince and Hotel Grand. All of that is the long way of saying that Ludo is going to be a miler but 1200m fresh on a big track, he could do something. I Stole It (who looks like Kingston Town if you ask me) was tipped out after a moderate debut at Gosford. Rest assured that he will run better here and that Kembla will suit him. Rakomelo has run second to Best Of Bordeaux and third to Buenos Noches.
Bet: Ludo each-way
RACE 4
Call Di is bred to be a champion, literally. Her father is the unbeaten racehorse and now fantastic stallion Frankel while her dam is the great Samantha Miss who won a Flight Stakes and VRC Oaks. She also denied Sebring the Two-Year-Old Triple Crown in 2008. As for Call Di, she just can’t be as good as her parents but she could end up winning a Group 1. She is being set for the Vinery and maybe the Oaks after that. Whatever the case, she is loaded with talent and overloaded with potential. Call Di would be a moral (IMHO) if Avebury wasn’t there on Tuesday. There is a lot of ‘Savabeel quality’ in this John O’Shea-trained filly who shows glimpses of being stakes class herself. Regal Inheritance has trialled exceedingly well lately. Kokoshnik, a half to Think About it, was scratched from Beaumont on Monday.
Bet: Call Do to win, quinella 6,7
RACE 5
Eyeque will be in the black for his owners after Tuesday (hopefully) after just five starts. John Thompson bought him for $40,000 at the Inglis Classic. Just for the pedigree buffs out there, he is by Smart Missile out of a Shamardal daughter of 2001 NZ Derby placegetter, Ma Victoire. Eyeque ran in two midweek races on the Kensington track to start with and wasn’t at all disgraced behind Zoukerino and then Matcha Latte/A Lot More To Love. Spelled, has come back in great shape evidenced by that fabulous win here on Jan 14. Casual Connection has raced five times, four of them have been at Kembla, placing at three of those. He is a Newcastle mile winner so 1500m off a very good 1050m trial has him right in the medal chances. Glint Of Silver’s chances of seeing out a strong 1500m went ‘up’ after he drew 4.
Bet: Eyeque to win, quinella 2,3
RACE 6
Keys To Love has raced on 18 occasions without winning but she has placed five times. Perhaps the main reason why at least one of those placings wasn’t a win is her pattern of getting back, bad draws, bad luck - all those things. It’s not a lack of talent. Trainer Melissa Harrison simply could not have found a more suitable race for the mare than this Provincial Maiden at her home track which lacks a lot of depth. Island Legend, the grandson of Group 1 winner Absolut Glam, has had the last two of his eight career starts under the care of Terry Croft. The first of those was a brave third to Piraeus and Moonlight Grace in a deep Gosford Maiden followed by a third in a Midway Maiden here behind the aforementioned Eyeque and subsequent winner Show No Compassion. Be in this for a long way. Devilry has claims.
Bet: Keys To Love to win, quinella 3,11
RACE 7
Jewellery is making her Kembla debut but has some family experience at the track through her dam Cameo who won the 2013 Keith Nolen beating subsequent AJC Oaks winner Royal Descent. Jewellery hasn’t been asked to go beyond 1200m in her five starts until now and it does seem to be that she will run it out no worries and that extra little bit of ground be the difference between just charging and charging over the top. The Replicant ran second last first-up but was better than that. He almost had ‘next time’ written all over him. Vormista’s son Jumierah Beach has the right draw and the perfect jockey. Local River Mac is good at the trip.
Bet: Jewellery to win
Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla
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