Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla, Tamworth
A Paul Murray-trained filly showed nice ability in her first campaign and is ready to go to another level this preparation starting with a win at Kembla. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL
Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over the Quaddie legs at Kembla and Tamworth.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET
Race 3 No. 9: WINNING POINT
Trained locally by Paul Murray, this filly sent out some very encouraging signs at her first preparation. Has a future.
NEXT BEST
Race 2 No. 9: GOOD BANTER
A Tavistock filly whose debut run was infinitely better than it reads on paper. Stick with her.
VALUE BET
Race 4 No. 5: CHOPIN
Not sold on the horse’s wet track credentials but the race has fallen away and leaves him on top by default.
QUADDIE
Race 4: 2, 5
Race 5: 2, 6, 7, 9
Race 6: 5, 9, 11
Race 7: 3, 8, 13
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Winona Costin has ridden 569 winners, 69 of those are at her most successful track, Kembla Grange.
TAMWORTH
BEST BET
Race 2 No. 8: ZARIZATIZ
Did a great job on debut to finish where she did in a warp speed run 900m maiden at Wellington.
NEXT BEST
Race 5 No. 5: SUPER MIND
Been consistent without winning one yet but he is close to breaking through. Go well.
VALUE BET
Race 4 No. 3: WANDA RIVER
A Sue Grills-trained three-year-old on debut off a couple of impressive trials.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KEMBLA GRANGE
RACE 4
Chopin was a nose winner on the Ballarat synthetic on debut but has been a bit underwhelming since. That said, the James Cummings-trained son of Exceed And Excel was really good first-up at Gosford over 1100m. Never had the Exceed And Excel breed as mudlarks but every horse is different. Even so, is it a double worry that Chopin’s dam is by Sepoy? All guess work at the end of the day. Seany’s Girl has talent and handles the wet. Opened the preparation with a win so it’s onwards and upwards from here.
Bet: Chopin to win
RACE 5
Lonrioli is a rolled-gold Lonhro. Interestingly, she is among the mere one per cent of the 13,099 horses foaled in the 2019 season that are officially classified as ‘black’ in colours. Lonrioli bolted in to win her maiden at Goulburn on Sept 22 but found the Reginald Allen a bit hot for her at her next and final start of the prep. Trialling like the winner. Meod will surely graduate beyond provincial racing as her career develops, Well bred, just unknown in the wet. Forms Of Fear is a Kembla winner and was outstanding in her Warwick Farm trial on Mar 17. That was the ‘real’ Free Enterprise last time out; only his second start.
Bet: Lonrioli to win, quinella 7, 9
RACE 6
Viking Power is a talent on his day. Believe it or not he was building up to win and it came at Albury last start where he roared away from the others, thanks in part to one of the rides of the season by Nick Souquet. Handles the conditions. L’Esperance Rock has been consistent all the way through. Has a big finish, maybe 1500m will do the trick. Butch’n’bugs made up ground from last at Newcastle behind Wealthofknowledge who went on to win a Midway at Rosehill at his next start. He is a winner at this track and suited by the wet conditions.
Bet: Viking Power to win
RACE 7
Magadan is a son of Russian Revolution yet has won over a mile and is up to 2000m here. First of all, Team Snowden know their way around the breed and in terms of stamina; bear in mind that Magadan’s third-dam is a sister to Champagne and the NZ Derby winner, St Reims. Lyrical Lady was scratched from a 2000m Maiden and Class 1 at Mudgee on Sunday. Third-up off two seconds and goes 1600m, 1700m to 2000m. Nice. Heavy 10s at Kembla can lend themselves to the odd blowout, especially late in the day. If it happens here, I reckon it’s Jaex.
Bet: Magadan win, Jaex each-way, box trifecta and First 4: Nos. 3, 7, 8, 13
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR TAMWORTH
RACE 5
Super Mind has raced 11 times, his best so far technically speaking was his second to the tasty Satay Chicken here at Tamworth. Super Mind’s next best run on paper was his March 12 third at Coonamble. Even though he has nine unplaced runs on his C.V, only four of those were ordinary - the rest were quite good. Lonhreel is a great granddaughter of Queensland Oaks and Derby winner, Bravery. Probably win this one if she can run something equal to, or better than the Scone placing on March 20. Stablemate Fast Lady is a genuine contender.
Bet: Super Mind to win
RACE 6
Sumptuary is a Paul Messara trained filly, in-bred to Snitzel as it happens, She’s actually quite a valuable filly for later on being out the Ken Russell winner, Royal Tithe, whose Snitzel son is Royalzel. Sumptuary has won two of three and was third to Mogo magic in a Highway in between. Acotango is a lightly-raced son of Spieth trained here by Cody Morgan. The horse certainly likes racing at home; both of his wins and his (lone) second have all been at Tamworth. Shapes as the main threat to the Arrowfield runner. Sammiballerina is a player.
Bet: Sumptuary to win or if scratched Acotango to win
RACE 7
Reward Seeker has won seven races and placed five times from his 33 starts. He’s your archetypal country cups horse; go back a few starts and he picked up the Quirindi Cup. The Michael Mulholland-trained eight-year-old gave his usual honest account of himself when a closing fifth in the leader-dominated Wellington Cup. One more thing; he is one for one at 2100m - that was the Orange Cup too. Mirror Queen has the admirable strike-rate of four wins from her nine starts. One of the Dundeel mare’s wins was here at Tamworth. She ran okay in the H&NW Heat won by her stablemate Akasawa on Feb 26. Wants this trip now big time.
Bet: Reward Seeker to win
RACE 8
Sailor is a Kris Lees-trained gelding with a pedigree worth mentioning. For starters, he is by Ocean Park, his dam is by Montjeu, and wait for it, his grandam is a Star Way daughter of the great Horlicks (the mother of Brew). Sailor is an Eagle Farm, Doomben, Newcastle and Awapuni winner inside just 10 starts and he trialled like a bomb at Gosford the other day. Scorched Land is surely good enough to win, just a wee-bit worried about the draw. Moetta has to go 1400m in good class on Tuesday but she was third in the Moree Cup (run here) behind Point Counterpoint. Casino Lord is a huge chance if he starts.
Bet: Sailor to win
Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla, Tamworth
Sargent buoyed by Sea’s Group 1 potential
With one eye on Group 1 goals later this spring, trainer John Sargent is expecting China Sea to lay down a marker in Saturday’s Listed $200,000 Dulcify Stakes (1600m) at Royal Randwick.
Rain only concern for Moody filly at Flemington
Talented filly Eneeza has one box left to tick this spring when she begins her campaign in the Group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington on Saturday.
Randwick Turf Talk for Saturday: Mitch’s moral ‘just wins’
Mitch Cohen and Shayne O’Cass debate the chances in all the big races at Royal Randwick on Saturday, where Mitch has a moral on a day featuring three Group 1s and a Premiere sprint.