Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla, Lismore
A John O’Shea-trained filly can get her autumn ambitions rolling with her first career win at Kembla Grange. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL
Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kembla Grange.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET
Race 4, No.1: AVEBURY
Straight off the Savabeel assembly line, this filly will be in better races before she’s all done.
NEXT BEST
Race 3, No.2: LUDO
Bred to be a good horse and he trials like one too. He’s bound for a lot more than this.
VALUE BET
Race 5, No.14: GORGEOUS ZARA
Well-bred filly who kicks off at a nice track and suitable distance. Has a bright future.
QUADDIE
Race 4: 1
Race 5: 6,12,14
Race 6: 12,13,17
Race 7: 3,5,7
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Brenton Avdulla could increase the tally of winners for John O’Shea to 80 courtesy of a pair of promising fillies.
LISMORE
BEST BET
Race 6, No.18: FIREFLIES
Well-bred and flashy filly who has her first run for Brett Cavanough having relocated from Randwick.
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.3: SILVER CANVAS
Grandson of Naturalism who was run down very late by a handy horse at Grafton seven day ago.
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.6: BELLZEN
Placed two of three and fifth at the run in between. Has the draw and the talent to breakthrough here.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KEMBLA GRANGE
RACE 1
Keys To Love was unlucky not to have finished closer here two starts back and was probably unlucky not to have won, if not really stretched the winner in a 1400m maiden here on Jan 31. This is not a huge field, in terms of both quality and quantity, and barrier 8 could end up a positive. Sulwaan is bred to be a lot better horse than she is. She’s an I Am Invincible out of El Daana who has thrown a Group 1 winner in South Africa. That said, she has been good in all three runs since she joined the Benjamin Smith stable at Kembla.
Bet: Keys To Love to win
RACE 2
Dancing Alone was sold for $1.4m at the Easter Yearling Sale in 2021, Bryce Heys gave her six trials before her debut and it was certainly worth the wait. Sure it was only a Canberra maiden she won but she ran good time and had that unmistakable hallmark of quality about her. Time To Boogie led throughout to win a 1000m maiden here on Jan 21 beat subsequent winner, Boston City. If he runs 56.18s again here, he’ll be hard to pass. Treasurer has claims and will be running on. Rotorua is handy.
Bet: Dancing Alone to win, quinella 1,5
RACE 3
Ludo has been scratched numerous times, mostly due to wide barriers and such. Avid trial watchers will be aware of his talent, albeit somewhat hidden in those trials that are much better they read. Ludo has ‘miler’ written all over him just like his sibling Scott Base who beat Embellish and Savvy Coup in the Karaka Classic. Grand Crusader is a Team Hawkes gelding who ran two pretty reasonable races at his short prep in Aug/Sept last year. The son of the German-based Counterattack trialled like a bomb at Rosehill the other day. Ruby Flyer was an eye-catcher at her only run at Kembla.
Bet: Ludo to win, exacta 2,1
RACE 4
Avebury was bred and raised at Waikato Stud and is from one of the farm’s oldest and most successful families. She’s by Savabeel; the next two dams are by O’Reilly and Pins so you can’t get much more ‘Waikato’ than that. As for what counts the most - her ability and chances of winning here - both are high. First Class Molley turned in an encouraging debut when third here behind the aforementioned Time To Boogie in 56.18s remember, the last 600m 32.91s which is flying. Bindi’s Choice was only beaten a length and three-quarters at Warwick Farm at her first start. Struff is a ‘market watch’.
Bet: Avebury to win, exacta 1 to beat 3
RACE 5
Gorgeous Zara is John O’Shea trained filly whose dam is a Savabeel daughter of Group 1 winning mare, Calveen. This filly was scratched from a race at Goulburn on Sunday which was won by her stablemate, Condrieu. As for Gorgeous Zara herself, there has been enough seen in her last couple of trials to suggest that she will be finishing on here. Poetic Drama remains winless after 15 starts but the daughter of Proisir has placed six times, five of those are seconds. Best of all, she has raced quite well here at Kembla before and was fourth in town not too long ago at all. Diaco has a chance. Star Legacy is the value.
Bet: Gorgeous Zara each-way
RACE 6
Finn’s Fortune may need a minor miracle to gain a start in this field but she is the best roughie all day (in my opinion) if she runs. For the record, she opened $41 the win and $12 the place on Monday. She has a good draw on Tuesday which is a start and that 10th of 11 here first-up really doesn’t do her justice. She was last at the turn and they came home in 33.86s. Big, big improver from here on. Her stablemate Pure Hydrogen was a moral at Goulburn first-up. He didn’t win by all that far but he would have done his confidence the world of good. There is more to Sebring’s Rose than meets the eye but she has to start showing it on race day.
Bet: Finn’s Fortune each-way or if scratched Pure Hydrogen to win
RACE 7
State Of America is a lightly-raced son of the US Triple Crown winner American Pharoah trained by the one of the acknowledged masters of three-year-old milers and classic types, David Payne. You never know, this horse could find his way to a Guineas or a Derby if he starts to turn his leaps into bounds from here on in. Ausbred Bluebird found the mile too short and Wyong too angular first-up but still ran a good race. Steps up to 2000m and Kembla but what hasn’t changed is her rider, Brett Prebble. Charity Spirit has only won once in 14 starts but has four seconds and must be at her peak now.
Bet: State Of America to win, quinella 5,7
Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla, Lismore
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