Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Canterbury
Returning from a spell, a John O’Shea-trained gelding can break through for his maiden victory. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL
Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Canterbury.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
CANTERBURY
BEST BET
Race 1, No.4: HELL I AM
This two-year-old looks to be an exciting type for John O’Shea who spelled him after a good second at Canterbury in February on a Heavy 9 track so he should handle it on Thursday.
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.2: CURTIS ISLAND
He’s by Kermadec so it’s not surprising to know he loves heavy ground and is back to midweek grade after a solid run on top of the ground in higher grade last time. He’s much more suited to this race.
VALUE BET
Race 6, No.2: DR EVIL
His heavy track record is sensational so he gets his chance again and at his only attempt at Canterbury he won.
QUADDIE
Race 4: 2, 4, 5, 7
Race 5: 1, 2, 4, 9
Race 6: 1, 2, 3, 6
Race 7: 1, 4, 5, 7
TRAINER TO WATCH
James Cummings will be disappointed if Lascars, Vientiane and Quatenus aren’t in the finish of the first, second and fourth races respectively.
JOCKEY TO WATCH
Apprentice jockey Reece Jones has a good book today with the likes of Rita May, Dr Evil and Don’tforgetmonica looking like good hopes in the wet ground.
THE INSIDE MAIL FOR CANTERBURY
RACE 1
An intriguing juvenile opener. I’m leaning to Hell I Am over Lascars but there is little between them. Hell I Am, trained by John O’Shea, was on the Magic Millions trail earlier this season but didn’t qualify for the big race before he started favourite at Canterbury and led for a long way when second to Nipotino on a heavy track. His two barrier trials in recent weeks including his impressive heat win at Randwick two weeks ago has him primed for this race. Lascars is a superbly bred Godolphin youngster by former champion sprinter Sepoy out of Alizes, herself a stakes winner and the grandam of Group 1 winners Astern and Alizee. Lascar has been runner-up twice in four starts, including at Listed level on debut, and is resuming after two good trials. We Don’t Roam is the knockout runner after an eye-catching debut effort at Kembla Grange. Sports Legend has looked very smart in both his trial wins but has drawn the outside barrier.
Suggested Bet: Hell I Am to win, box trifecta 4,5,7,12
RACE 2
Godolphin filly Vientiane, another beautifully bred product of the Godolphin breeding operation, attracts a lot of attention at her debut. She is by champion Lonhro out of stakes-winner Bernicia, herself the dam of Group 2 winner Old North, and is related to Hong Kong superstar Vengeance Of Rain. Vientiane has displayed plenty of natural ability at the trials including her most recent hitout when she was kept under a tight hold by Rachel King but was absolutely bolting scoring a narrow heat win at Randwick. Roma Avenue has three minor placings from as many starts including his first-up third on a heavy track at Canterbury. He has an obvious advantage with race fitness and experience over Vientiane. Offaneasy was cluttered up on the turn and should have finished closer at Gosford. Cosmic Minerva did enough on debut to suggest he will be competitive.
Suggested Bet: Vientiane to win
RACE 3
Flying Step came off a strong win at Canterbury in heavy going to finish third at Kensington after being trapped three wide without cover for most of the race. She’s a tough filly and runs on resolutely in her races. Mobstar got through the heavy conditions well to score at Wyong then was badly checked in the straight and eased out of the race last start. Down in grade here and is worth another chance. Flower Moon was forced very wide on the turn at Warwick Farm but kept working to the line to run third last start. Both her career wins have been on heavy tracks. Tuhinga has trialled well and should sprint well fresh.
Suggested Bet: Box trifecta 2,3,5,6
RACE 4
Sunrise Ruby is resuming but she usually sprints well fresh and is particularly effective on heavy tracks. Her trial win at Albury beating stablemate Well In Sight two weeks ago was very impressive. Rita May has race fitness on her side after winning first-up at Hawkesbury. She’s a speedy filly with two wins from just four starts but is untested on wet tracks. Quatenus was only fair first-up at Rosehilll but probably wasn’t suited when the race developed into a sprint home. She’s certainly better placed suited back to midweek grade.
Suggested Bet: Sunrise Ruby each way, watch betting moves for Quatenus
RACE 5
I’m giving Snitzonfire another chance. He led for home at Canterbury when resuming but was run down late and ran fifth. He won his first three starts in his debut preparation and can improve on his first-up effort. Flash Flood is the danger. He is a wet track specialist dropping back to the midweeks after a solid effort at Rosehill in Saturday class. Don’t overlook Royal Banquet. He was first-up at Canterbury and raced outside Snitzonfire in a solidly run race and finished right alongside that horse.
Suggested Bet: Snitzonfire to win
RACE 6
Deficit is ready to win. His last two Saturday-class efforts have been good and will appreciate dropping back to midweek grade. If Dr Evil races to pattern, he wins. Dr Evil has won four races this preparation but has not been able to win in successive starts. If that sequence continues, he’s ready to win this race. Important to note the wetter the better for Dr Evil. I’m very wary of Segrill. He was dominant on a heavy track win here two starts back then got held up for most of the straight at Kensington when a close sixth. He will be over the odds here.
Suggested Bet: Deficit to win, saver on Segrill each way
RACE 7
Riduna scored a commanding second-up win at Newcastle, leading for home then breaking clear of the chasing pack to win by more than three lengths shouldering 60kg. Talented filly who is well drawn, should settled on speed and prove the one to catch again. Icecrusher ran a blinder first-up, finishing powerfully to just miss behind Sur La Mer at Warwick Farm over 1400. She has had a month between runs but has to come back to 1300m which is a slight concern. Lisdoonvarna invariably goes around over the odds but she is very effective at her home track on heavy surfaces and in this grade. Calgary Queen is a genuine mare and is drawn to get the right run. Tawfiq Lass finishing front of Calgary Queen last start so she has to be considered and watch market moves for former English mare Soffika.
Suggested Bet: Riduna each way, box trifecta 1,3,7,11
Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Canterbury
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