Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Armidale, Ballina

A lightly-raced filly has found the right race at the right time to post an early career win when she heads to Armidale on Tuesday. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Racing in New South Wales on Tuesday is at Armidale and Ballina.

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over the Quaddie legs at Armidale and Ballina.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

ARMIDALE

BEST BET

Race 1 No. 12: WET AND WINDY

The Paddy Cunningham-trained filly has placed at two of her four runs and was a creditable fourth at the last one at Grafton on March 27. Expect her to run well again.

NEXT BEST

Race 5 No. 7: METAL BAR

The gelding from the Jeremy Sylvester stable has only won once in his 30 starts but has placed on 11 occasions. His ‘best’ would see him through here.

VALUE BET

Race 4 No. 8: SPORTSMAN

Another from the Sylvester yard, he hasn’t fired first-up before to any degree but he is a track and distance winner who can sometimes turn in a ‘big’ run.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 2, 8

Race 5: 2, 7

Race 6: 7, 8, 14

Race 7: 1, 11

Jockey Luke Rolls looks tough to beat in the TAB Jockey Challenge.

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Luke Rolls could give the TAB Jockeys Challenge the proverbial shake if all his rides show up on the day.

BALLINA

BEST BET

Race 2 No. 8: CONTINUUM

Once famous for her ‘seconds’, 13 of them to be precise, the David Matts-prepared mare has won two of her last three and isn’t done with yet.

NEXT BEST

Race 1 No. 7: REACHOVER

The Dwayne Schmidt-trained gelding was runner-up here on March 4 then won the ‘no race’ at Grafton on March 27. He deserves this.

VALUE BET

Race 4 No. 1: EYES TO EYE

A locally-trained gelding from the Ethan Ensby yard who is one for one at the track and trip and loves the Heavy ground.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR ARMIDALE

RACE 4

Sportsman was a $500,000 yearling back in 2019. As it stands today, the son of Exceed And Excel has banked $64,735 having won four from 35. If horses ran on looks alone, Sportsman would be in the Hall of Fame but alas he has never really lived up to what was expected. Now for the good news, he is a winner at the track and trip and he is ‘good’ on his day. Zalini was scratched from Muswellbrook on Sunday to run here instead. Has to go well on form. Pull The Tail can be forgiven for his now trademark ‘second-up failure’.

Bet: Sportsman to win, quinella 2, 8

RACE 5

Metal Bar races in the same red and black silks as Sportsman as a Jeremy Sylvester housed galloper. This grandson of the 1998 SAJC Australasian Oaks winner La Volta has a winning strike-rate of a mere 1 from 30 but he placed 11 times and hasn’t always had the best of luck owing to his pattern, etc. Bean Rocking is trained locally by Stirling Osland. His record at this track and distance is a compelling two starts for a last start win and a pretty close up third. Must respect. Cool Amigo finished an honourable third to Windabull at his Armidale debut.

Bet: Metal Bar each-way, quinella 2, 7

Ben Looker partners The Orphan at Armidale on Tuesday.

RACE 6

The Orphan is a New Zealand-bred gelding who raced four times back home before taking up residence at Paul Shailer’s stables at Port Macquarie. The son of Belardo was an instant hit, winning his first Australian start at Tuncurry by upwards of two and a half lengths. Resumes off a very nice trial mid-March. Sparks, the brother to Bivouac, has been a genuine eye-catcher in all three of his starts for his sixth handler, Jane Clement. Getting awfully close again to a win. Allande is in great form but locked out with the wide draw.

Bet: The Orphan to win

RACE 7

Indy Rose Warrior has a wide alley to contend with but remains the one to beat. One reason why is that she is the only horse in the race whose benchmark rating starts with the number 6 and, on top of that, she is the only horse in the race who is on a hat-trick. Jade has only won two from 46 but keep in mind that she has placed 16 times and best of all, she is a last start winner and a rather convincing one at that. Stablemate Bill Peyto has claims.

Bet: Indy Rose Warrior to win

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR BALLINA

RACE 4

Eyes To Eye has some compelling figures above and beyond his overall record. They are; three starts on heavy for two wins and a second. It’s going to be wet to some degree. On top of that, Eyes To Eye has raced here twice at the home track for a win and third. The win was at his March 21 start and it was over this trip. Pratten Park, named after the original home ground of the Wests Magpies, is back in trip but is as fit as any horse in this race. Volfoni never seems to run a bad race.

Bet: Eyes To Eye to win

RACE 5

Introvert is a So You Think gelding who races in the OTI colours. Trained by Matthew Dunn, this relatively lightly-raced four-year-old has raced 10 times for a win and two placings. The most striking aspect about him is that he is a last start Ballina winner over this distance on a Heavy 9 and he walked in. Paris Belle has to make up the best part of six lengths to turn the tables on the Dunn galloper but it’s not impossible provided she doesn’t have to give away a massive head start.

Bet: Introvert to win

Nozi Tomizawa rides Vetoed at Ballina.

RACE 6

Vetoed is trained here at Ballina and was $8.50 to $12 when she made her debut in a 1300m maiden at home on March 21. She drew barrier 4, was third of nine for the most part but ended up finishing second. Needless to say, it was a very encouraging run. Vetoed steps up to 1410m on Tuesday and there is no reason why she won’t be sweet with it. Marlou Millie remains winless after 14 starts. That said, she doesn’t have too many downright poor runs on her C.V. She has certainly run well at her last two and appears to be looking for this sort of trip.

Bet: Vetoed to win, exacta 14 to beat 9

RACE 7

Roman Rebel was $9 to $12 when he won his debut run at Coffs Harbour on Feb 18 beating 13 others. Good work. He fronted up at Taree two weeks later and was fifth beaten one and a bit lengths but rest assured it was one of the best Class 1’s run at Taree in history. Anything after that for the horse is a step down in class. Sherriff Cody has the talent to win races above this and will go all the way out to 2200m this prep (maybe). Emaleah is probably the biggest ‘market watch’ horse all day.

Bet: Roman Rebel to win