Top hopes need to hit new peak to claim Stradbroke Handicap, says ratings experts

RATINGS expert Daniel O’Sullivan has cast doubt on the Stradbroke chances of top fancies Counterattack, Malaguerra and Music Magnate in Saturday’s $1.5m sprint.

Doomben 10,000 winner Music Magnate will need to find an extra gear to claim the Stradbroke, according to ratings expert Dan O’Sullivan.

RATINGS expert Daniel O’Sullivan has cast doubt on the Stradbroke chances of top fancies Counterattack, Malaguerra and Music Magnate in Saturday’s $1.5 million sprint.

O’Sullivan compiles Weight-for-age Performance Ratings (WPR) for The Ratings Bureau and on his scale a figure of somewhere between 105 and 106 will be needed to win on Saturday.

“With Black Heart Bart, Azkadellia, Kaepernick and Under The Louvre carrying recent form in that range, it’s hard to imagine at least one of them won’t run to that level or better in this race,” O’Sullivan said.

“Malaguerra and Music Magnate need to find clear new career peaks just to get into the 105 to 106 competitive winning zone.

“Even if they do that, then there’s still potentially four others they have to stick their nose past. I couldn’t assess them at single-figures odds on that basis.”

While the Doomben 10,000 generated a fast overall time, O’Sullivan said the early tempo should have allowed them to run even faster. The fact they were only marginally quicker than Ghisoni was “concern for its quality as a form reference’’.

O’Sullivan said there was “no merit on the clock” in the Fred Best win by Counterattack and he also needed to climb to a higher level in the Stradbroke, even allowing for the fact he was three wide without cover throughout the Fred Best.

“He recorded a relatively moderate figure (101.8) for this race,’’ O’Sullivan said. “Given the required standard he’s hard to like, even with a previous figure of 103.9.

“If it was anyone but Chris Waller or Darren Weir I’d just rule a line through him, but Waller can get them to do something special on grand final day.’’

On the WPR scale, Kaepernick comes in with the best last-start rating adjusted to the handicap of 107.7, a clear spike on his previous best. Under The Louvre has put together two 105.6 runs.

“They are live chances, the quintessential Group 1 handicappers.,’’ O’Sullivan said. “They’d have no chance at WFA but profile nicely under handicap conditions right down in the weights.

“With that consistency from his last two ratings, Under The Louvre looks undervalued at $12 in the market.

“Black Heart Bart and Azkadellia are obviously the benchmarks to get past. They have both the ratings to win and consistency.’’

Originally published as Top hopes need to hit new peak to claim Stradbroke Handicap, says ratings experts