Toowoomba race-by-race preview and tips for Sunday

This is Graeme Carey’s race-by-race analysis and tips for Sunday’s meeting at Toowoomba.

This is Graeme Carey’s race-by-race analysis and tips for Sunday’s meeting at Toowoomba.

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BEST BET:

DEPTH CHARGE (Race 6 No. 8)

NEXT BEST:

MY NAME IS (Race 4 No. 4)

VALUE BET:

LINDA’S MAGIC (Race 5 No. 9)

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Quaddie numbers are:

Race 4 - 1,4,8,9

Race 5 - 9,10

Race 6 - 3,4,9

Race 7 - 1,5,10,11

$96 = 100 per cent of the dividend

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Race 1 - Maiden Plate (2150m)

SAMURAI WARRIOR (2) is bred for this trip and fitter for two placings over shorter journeys since coming from Western Australia to join the Gerans. With a 3kg claim for Landan Sykes he will get every chance.

HE’S FINESSE (3) was only run down late when resuming and beating SAMURAI WARRIOR (2) home over 1625m. Out of a half-sister to the grand old stayer Precedence there is enough stamina in his pedigree to make him a threat.

BOLERO (4) is a dour type on a four-day backup but has placed at three of his past four outings around this trip. He needs a tempo but draws to do no work and with Olivia Kendal’s 2kg claim will be coming when the others are stopping.

SHALZER (6) is another that has been trying for a while but has placed at his past two outings here and may appreciate the extra distance.

Verdict - SAMURAI WARRIOR (2) is the one to beat.

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Race 2 – 2YO Maiden Plate (1100m)

Blinkers go on GEITZ (10) which has been supported at both outings but raced greenly in stronger company than this. The gate tests but Nozi Tomizawa rides this track better than most and will know what to do.

SHEMAKESMENERVOUS (13) is a flighty type but has been racing in better company and will be improved by her first-up outing. A good gate helps, and she will be prominent for a long way.

REDMISS (11) didn’t flatter at her first preparation, but her recent trials have shown improvement. With a positive ride from Anthony Allen, she can be in the finish.

A tongue-tie replaces the tongue control bit on BRAVE JET (2) which ran a bold race despite being caught wide on debut at Dalby and may have more to offer.

Verdict- GEITZ (10) is set to get it right.

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Race 3 – 3YO Maiden Handicap (1100m)

Not much useful revealed form but local experience counts and ENTITLE (9) has placed at both outings here. Nozi Tomizawa stays on. she gets the gun run and will be hard to hold out.

EXTOL (2) didn’t show much at debut but was dominant in a recent trial. Blinkers replace winkers and with Corey Bayliss he will be prominent for a long way.

Tony Gollan has brought MAYBE (12) here after she was hampered at the start and only battled on debut at the Gold Coast. By Zoustar out of a good race mare, she has improvement.

OH NOT REALLY (5) has drawn the outside but has placed at both outings and looked good at recent trials. With Bubba Tilley he has the gate speed to make his presence felt.

Verdict - ENTITLE (9) can take advantage of getting all the favours.

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Race 4 - Benchmark 65 Handicap (870m)

MY NAME IS (4) struggled on the heavy ground at Kilcoy when long odds-on and never figured. He is better suited here; Bubba Tilley replaces the apprentice Chloe Lowe and can make amends.

ANGELIC BOOM (9) is a short course specialist resuming. She has been readied by a recent trial, gets a tongue-tie and from a good gate Georgina Cartwright will take no prisoners.

ENFLAMED (8) won his Maiden here over this trip and will have benefited from a recent outing here over 1000m. Madeleine Wishart stays on and from a good gate will give them something to chase.

SCRIBBLE (10) has had a change of stables and been readied by a recent trial. He disappointed last preparation but has speed, carries no weight and will get all the favours from the inside draw.

Verdict - MY NAME IS (4) looks hard to hold out.

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Race 5 - Class 1/Maiden Plate (1625m)

LINDA’S MAGIC (9) has placed at both Dalby outings since resuming in similar fields to this and will appreciate this extra distance. She won her Maiden here and with a positive ride from Montana Savva will be hard to hold out.

TWILIGHT SPARKLE (10) got the Maiden out of way here last start and won’t find this much harder. He rises 4kg but Madeleine Wishart stays on and from the ace draw can dictate proceedings.

THE PATRON SAINT (6) has struggled since coming to Australia from New Zealand where he was competitive at Group level. Now with Amanda Park, he failed to flatter at his first outing when resuming but drops in grade, gets a tongue-tie and Kenji Yoshida will find out if anything is there.

FOREBEARS (2) has only won one of 35 but appreciated a positive ride on the Sunshine Coast polytrack last start and was only run down late. Olivia Kendal gets back on and a similar ride on turf can produce dividends

Verdict - LINDA’S MAGIC (9) can account for these.

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Race 6 - Benchmark 70 Handicap (1200m)

DEPTH CHARGE (8) is fitter for a recent outing on an unsuitable heavy track, has won four of six here and unbeaten in three starts at this journey. From the ace draw with Bailey Wheeler, he draws to do no work and will be hard to hold out.

AKAKA FALLS (3) is more a placegetter than a winner but ran on from a wide gate to only just miss here when having his second start for the Nick Keal stable. This is as far as he wants, but with Cobi Vitler’s 3kg claim a positive ride has him in the finish,

NERANO (4) built a good record here last preparation and looked ready to go at a recent trial. He may prefer longer but has gate speed and with Kelsy Lenton’s 3kg claim won’t be far away in running.

PICKO ROCKS (2) is resuming, goes well fresh and has won two of three starts here. Longer is better but with Fiona Sandkuhl’s 3kg claim, he can make his presence felt.

Verdict - DEPTH CHARGE (8) to get it done.

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Race 7 - Benchmark 58 Handicap (1200m)

The 3kg claim for Kelsey Lenton helps CONNEWARRE (1) which found one better at Rockhampton last star but wasn’t beaten far in a Saturday Benchmark 65 three starts back. He drops back in trip but has won twice here previously and won’t be far away in running.

A recent acquisition for Mark Currie, FREEMAN (11) hit the line well when resuming and may find this class easier. Blinkers replace winkers and with Bailey Wheeler, he will give them a start but be rounding them up late.

The stablemate PORRISTA (10) got the breakthrough last start on a heavy track. This is harder but he draws to do no work and can dictate the tempo.

MALECON (5) has less convictions than most and will be improved by his first-up outing. Longer is better but he can finish off.

Verdict - CONNEWARRE (1) finds the right class.

Originally published as Toowoomba race-by-race preview and tips for Sunday