Saturday preview: Courier-Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby breaks down the big races at Doomben

THE Courier-Mail’s racing editor Nathan Exelby breaks down the big races at Doomben, headlined by the Group 2 Victory Stakes, on Saturday.

NATHAN EXELBY

3 min read

April 29, 2016 - 5:00PM

Fell Swoop has been clearly the best backed for the Victory Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

THE Courier-Mail’s racing editor Nathan Exelby breaks down the big races at Doomben, headlined by the Group 2 Victory Stakes, on Saturday.

Track: Good (4)

Weather: Possible shower (less than 1mm predicted), 28C

SATURDAY OTHER MEETINGS (EST Times)

HAWKESBURY (9 races, start 11.55am), CAULFIELD (9 races, start 12.10pm), MORPHETTVILLE (8 races, start 12.23pm),

BELMONT (8 races, start 2.23pm).

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

Race 3

CONSTRUCTION INCOME PROTECTION

1350m, 3YO, 1.13pm

In the run: Fiery Heights is the natural leader, but Jeff Lloyd will want to conserve energy getting across, with other speed like Dee Nine Elle, Camouflage and Stitchen Time engaged.

Take note: Cashing Up was excellent first up against older horses, then just couldn’t keep up when dropped back to the short course at Toowoomba behind a real flyer. Much better suited up to 1350m and back to his own age.

Did you know: Fiery Heights clocked fast time and the form behind him from the last start win has been excellent, with two subsequent winners and three placings (plus a slashing fourth in a Sydney stakes race). The test is the wide gate and 59kg here.

Early money: Stella Ombra has been double figures into $7.50. Fiery Heights and Cashing Up the other two early movers.

Nathan’s tip: Cashing Up $8.50

Nathan’s danger: Fiery Heights $4.50

Race 6

Fell Swoop and Blake Shinn combine to win at Rosehill midweek races in February. Picture: Mark Evans

VICTORY STAKES

1200m, SWFA G2, 3.07pm

In the run: Didntcostalot leads for Tegan Harrison with the only other potential pressure being Pinch River. Fell Swoop slots in behind.

Take note: Fell Swoop is the logical top pick with the T.J. Smith second and two other good G1 runs this prep. Quirky stat for those looking for a downside: from Chautauqua’s 11 wins the only horse that finished second to him to win next time out was Art Teen, who ran 2nd in the grey’s maiden win.

Did you know: According to digital times, Sea Siren is the only horse to go quicker than Didntcostalot over the Doomben 1200m since 2012. When on song, he runs along and has his rivals beaten a long way from home.

Early money: Market has been steady since it opened. Fell Swoop clearly the best backed.

Nathan’s tip: Fell Swoop $1.65

Nathan’s danger: Didntcostalot $7

Race 7

GUNSYND CLASSIC

1630m, 3YO G3, 3.47pm

In the run: Pace looks suspect, unless they ride Shotacross The Bow the same as they did at the Gold Coast. Can see Tap This right on the speed in the box seat.

Take note: Tap This didn’t really fire on the tricky Randwick surface last time. First up she was impressive at Wyong and the form around her in that race has been excellent. Looks like she will relish the mile.

Did you know: Desleigh Forster is finding it hard to split her three runners, but has a slight leaning to Too Good To Refuse at this trip, with her others, Cylinder Beach and I’m Belucci being prepared for the 2400m Derby.

Early money: A couple backed at longer odds. Snapper ($41-$16) and Dawnie Perfect ($21-$16).

Nathan’s tip: Tap This $7.50

Nathan’s danger: Too Good To Refuse $4.80

Race 8

Trubia winning at Toowoomba this month. Picture: Grant Peters, Trackside Photography

PERTRONIC INDUSTRIES PLATE

1350m, C6 SW, 4.23pm

In the run: Boris Badenov will kick up from the inside. Gotyacovered also holds his spot. Gold Horizon and Glendara can cross from wider out. Beckham hasn’t shown the same speed this prep as last time in, but could be another in the firing line.

Take note: Trubia’s 2nd up stats don’t read well, but in reality he was super at his first 2nd up attempt then had little luck last time in. And on neither occasion was he going as well as Michael Lakey has him going is now. He’s a monster, so that will help with the 59kg.

Did you know: Lordag gets a 1.5kg weight swing on Trubia for their Toowoomba meeting and he was a 2nd up 1350m Doomben winner last prep. Nice draw. Best will come at a mile but will be strong at the end.