Saturday preview: Courier-Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby breaks down Brisbane’s biggest race day

POLL: THE Courier-Mail’s racing editor Nathan Exelby breaks down the Stradbroke Day card that features four Group 1 races on the same day for the first time in Queensland.

Nathan Exelby

6 min read

June 10, 2016 - 4:00PM

Super mare Azkadellia runs them ragged at Royal Randwick. Picture: Simon Bullard

THE Courier-Mail’s racing editor Nathan Exelby breaks down the 10-race card at the much-anticipated and now overdue return to Eagle Farm, headlined by the $1.5 million Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap.

The day doubles as the grand reopening of Eagle Farm and the first time four Group 1 races have been run on the same day in the state.

Queensland’s premier race is supported by the $600,000 Group 1 Queensland Derby, the $500,000 Group 1 Queensland Oaks and the $600,000 Group 1 JJ Atkins Stakes.

While the undercard features the $300,000 Group 2 Brisbane Cup and $175,000 Group 2 QTC Cup for open class sprinters.

Track: Good (4)

Weather: Mostly sunny, 23C

Can Azkadellia give Damien Oliver his second Stradbroke Handicap success in thee years? Picture: Simon Bullard

Race 1: Lancaster Stakes

1200m, 2yo F LR 10.50am

In the run: Doesn’t look huge natural speed, so wouldn’t surprise if Royal Tithe was able to cross from wide out to be prominent.

Take note: Invincibella is still a maiden but was unlucky last time at Canterbury and looks suited by the extra trip here. Form around her is stacking up and looks a good chance for Hugh Bowman.

Did you know: Chipanda rolled Legerity after overcoming problems last start. That form should stack up into this, as Legerity had beaten the impressive Archives at its previous start. Chipanda showed nice improvement with that fresh win.

Early money: Good betting race. Royal Tithe ($17-$11) and Miss Amajardan ($26-$12) tried at longer odds. Chipanda is in from $4.80, while Invincibella has trimmed up from $7.

Nathan’s tip: Chipanda $3.50

Nathan’s danger: Invincibella $4.20

Race 2: Wayne Wilson Mile

1600m, SW+P LR, 11.20am

In the run: Joao Moreira should have little trouble getting the speedy Religify to cross these mile type horses. Worthy Cause can hold a spot from the inside, while Hopfgarten and Hi World should go forward from wide gates.

Take note: Blanket finish in the Lord Mayor’s Cup. Liked the effort of Hopfgarten. Had little luck there, yet still made a dash on the turn. Pajaro was good from the back and bigger track can suit.

Did you know: Religify is clear top pick on weight and time ratings and expecting money to roll in for him. Question is whether he will see out the mile on the big track? Should be there for a long way.

Early money: Hopfgarten and Worthy Cause have been backed at double figures. Volkstok’n’barrell easy.

Nathan’s tip: Pajaro $12

Nathan’s danger: Hopfgarten $9

Race 3: Dane Ripper Stakes

1400m, F & M SW+P G2, 11.55am

In the run: Traveston Girl can lead, Elegant Composure won’t be far away and then Ghisoni will come across and slot in where James McDonald is comfortable.

Take note: Cradle Me gave Ghisoni backers a fright for a few strides before the other one’s class kicked in. Obviously she’s going very well and off the inside should race well again.

Did you know: Ghisoni was rated through the week by James McDonald (pictured) as “a good thing” in the Stradbroke had she gone there. Connections had other ideas and want to protect her. Expect improvement off the Doomben win. Looks to good again.

Early money: Plenty of sizeable four figure bets coming in for Ghisoni, who could very easily start much shorter than the overnight quote.

Nathan’s tip: Ghisoni $1.70

Nathan’s danger: Cradle Me $6.50

Race 4: Queensland Guineas

1600m, 3YO G2, 12.30pm

In the run: Unbreakable and Royal Tudor will make use of their good gates. Mr Individual also prominent.

Take note: A few of these missed a vital 1400m lead-up run when the Daybreak Lover was washed out last week, meaning they are now 21 days between runs and up to the mile from 1350m. Not easy. Off the Fred Best, Too Good To Refuse and Tivaci looked the best trials for this, while Perfect Dare would have been suited by the run last week.

Did you know: Tsaritsa is the new blood, having been brilliant in two Sydney wins this prep. She produced a blistering final split which ranked 9.5 lengths above the average (according to dailysectionals.com.au) and the quickest final 400m on the day.

Early money: Easily the biggest early go of the day here with Tsaritsa. Some agencies bet better than $4.

Nathan’s tip: Tsaritsa $2.80

Nathan’s danger: Tivaci $9.50

Race 5: QTC Cup

1300m, Qty G2, 1.05pm

In the run: Eloping will cross from wide out and expecting Spill The Beans to do the same. That’s A Good Idea and Echo Gal will be handy. Should be truly run and backmarkers can get their chance.

Take note: That’s A Good Idea drops 6kg for his brave win at Randwick. Will he see out a strong 1300m? Some doubt on that, but he’s well placed.

Did you know: Snippets Land would start at big odds in this race based on his Sydney form, where others here are superior, but he’s been brilliant in Qld this prep. Clocked clearly superior figures to Counterattack on same day last time. Will relish the genuine tempo.

Early money: Good go for Spill The Beans, who has been $7.50 into $5.50 in a race renowned as being a good one for 3YOs.

Nathan’s Tip: Snippets’ Land $7

Nathan’s Danger: That’s A Good Idea $14

Sir John Hawkwood meets Real Love 3kg better. Picture: Jenny Evans

Race 6: Brisbane Cup

2400m, Qty G2, 1.40pm

In the run: Ecuador is a natural leader and expect Puccini to be prominent again after those tactics sparked a more spirited effort from him last time.

Take note: Can make a strong case to say Sir John Hawkwood would have beaten Real Love with better luck at Doomben. Now meets her 3kg better and trainer David Vandyke has deliberately targeted this race fresh.

Did you know: Since being switched back to 2400m, seven of the nine winners have carried 55.5kg or less. Benzini stoked up nicely late at Doomben and should have finished a touch closer. Looks suited this trip.

Early money: Ecuador and Real Love have been easy as money rolls in for Sir John Hawkwood, who started the week at $7.

Nathan’s tip: Sir John Hawkwood $5

Nathan’s danger: Benzini $8.50

Race 7: JJ Atkins

1600m, 2YO G1, 2.20pm

In the run: Dreams Aplenty will roll forward from wide out as will Redouble. Vasiliev and Attention hold prominent spots from the inside.

Take note: Candika produced a similar final 200m to Sacred Elixir in the Sires and was superior at the end to Souchez. Gives every impression she will lap up the extra distance and seems odd that the Steve O’Dea trained filly is twice the price of the other two.

Did you know: Attention is trying to become the 14th horse and first since Sizzling in 2012 to complete the Sires-JJ double. Of the 36 to attempt the feat, 24 have run placings.

Early money: Sacred Elixir has been $5 into $4.20 and now clear favourite. Candika and Jaws Of Steel also have admirers.

Nathan’s tip: Candika $7.50

Nathan’s danger: Attention $7.50

Race 8: Queensland Derby

2400m, 3yo G1, 3pm

In the run: The Chris Waller stablemates Mackintosh and Encosta Line will both be prominent. Snapper goes forward.

Take note: Blanket finish for the placings in the Grand Prix and fourth placed Eschiele should have finished closer. Only four winners in 30 years have come off a last start effort worse than fourth, so don’t look too wide.

Did you know: The last two Derby winners have come through non-traditional interstate lead-ups. Encosta Line brings that formline in here. Don’t like the 2 from 16 overall record, but at first attempt beyond the mile bolted in last time, closing off in slick splits.

Early money: Howard Be Thy Name has been $4.60 to $4 and is now favourite. Eschiele ($7.50-$7) also popular.

Nathan’s tip: Eagle Way $5

Nathan’s danger: Encosta Line $10

Race 9: AAMI Stradbroke

1400m, Hcp G1, 3.40pm

In the run: Tempo should be good with Two Blue kicking up and Takedown and Charmed Harmony crossing from wider gates. Will they fire Hooked up again from the wide gate?

Take note: A top four finish in the Doomben 10,000 has provided five of the past 14 winners. Not much between them this year, but banking on Azkadellia having the most upside.

Did you know: Seven of the past 10 winners have been at double figures, including four at $21 or longer, so punters don’t often get it right. Artlee appeals as having a profile to win. Meets Music Magnate 4.5kg better for their meeting at Randwick in April.

Early money: Monster go for Azkadellia this week, opening up $4.50 in most places, but now in a point. Sprinkling of money for Big Money, while The Virginian was backed to win $150,000 in a single bet on Friday.

Nathan’s tip: Azkadellia $3.30

Nathan’s danger: Artlee $23

Race 10: Queensland Oaks

2400m, 3YO F G1, 4.20pm

In the run: They should run it at an even clip with the likes of Zasorceress, Romantic Maid, Ashlee Marie, Self Esteem and Imposing Lass in the firing line.

Take note: Falkenberg was slow out then struck plenty of traffic problems in the Roses. Liked the way she finished off. Brother to a Slipper winner but the sire has produced Classic winners at this trip.

Did you know: Provocative is aiming to be just the second filly in the past 11 years to win this coming through a race other than the Roses. Her individual final 600m sectional at Ipswich was the quickest at the venue in at least five years for 2150-2200 races.