Queensland Derby could be Kiwi filly’s destiny

QUEENSLAND Oaks betting markets may be poised for a major shake-up with the favourite, classy New Zealand filly Provocative, potentially set to target the Derby instead.

Great start: Provocative wins first up at Ipswich. Picture: Grant Peters, Trackside Photography

QUEENSLAND Oaks betting markets may be poised for a major shake-up with the favourite, classy New Zealand filly Provocative, potentially set to target the Derby instead.

Tony Pike’s three-year-old had been the $7 favourite for the Group 1 Oaks on June 4, but sits well down the order of Oaks entries at No.52, with $31,078 in prizemoney.

She could be pitchforked into the Oaks field if she won Saturday’s Group 3 Grand Prix at Doomben but Pike has another plan swirling in his mind.

He has high regard for Chris Waller’s frontrunning stayer Mackintosh in Saturday’s Grand Prix and is not convinced of the merits of running Provocative, then backing her up seven days later in the Oaks.

A more likely scenario is Provocative, who won by more than two lengths at her Australian debut at Ipswich last week, will bypass the Grand Prix and Oaks.

She would run in a 2200m race at Doomben next Wednesday instead to try to qualify for the Group 1 Queensland Derby 10 days later.

A midweek win next Wednesday would give Provocative another $32,000 in prize money and almost certainly get her into the Derby field.

Pike is still likely to accept for the Oaks, just in case the attrition rate in the order of entry is greater than expected.

“It doesn’t look like she is going to get into the Oaks with her prizemoney and I’m not sure about running her on Saturday,’’ Pike said.

“Going to that race at Doomben next Wednesday and then on to the Derby probably looks the most likely plan.’’

Racing Queensland chief handicapper Nathan Bourke indicated it was an intensely competitive year for fillies trying to get a run in the Oaks.

“There are a lot more well-credentialed fillies around this year than some other years.

“Some years there have been fillies getting a run in the Oaks with as little as $20,000 prizemoney,’’ Bourke said.

Pike will also have impressive two-year-old Sacred Elixir running at Doomben on Saturday, using the Group 2 Sires Produce as a springboard towards the Group 1 JJ Atkins next month.

Pike is convinced Sacred Elixir will be a serious threat in the JJ Atkins at Eagle Farm but is unsure if the big-striding gelding will be suited to the tight Doomben track.

SUNSHINE Coast trainer Stuart Kendrick will decide on Tuesday whether filly Divine Centuri will run in Saturday’s Group 1 Doomben 10,000.

Divine Centuri is a $51 chance but the 10,000 field has fallen away and Kendrick could be convinced by good trackwork.

Originally published as Queensland Derby could be Kiwi filly’s destiny