Gold Coast race-by-race preview and tips for Saturday: $11 value play

The postponed QTIS Jewel program at the Gold Coast is set for decision on Saturday with big fields full of chances.

Tribeca Star is Graeme's best bet of the day at the Gold Coast on Saturday. Photo: Jason McCawley/Getty Images.

The postponed QTIS Jewel program at the Gold Coast is set for decision on Saturday with big fields full of chances.

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BEST BET

TRIBECA STAR (Race 4 No 5)

NEXT BEST

PIASTRI (Race 10 No 2)

VALUE BET

HEARTS ARE BETTER (Race 7 No 9)

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Quaddie numbers are:

Race 7 – 1,9

Race 8 – 5,7,10

Race 9 – 2,5,6,13

Race 10 – 2,10,13

$72 = 100 per cent of the dividend

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Race 1 – Benchmark 70 Handicap (1700m)

An open race and each-way value with JOVITA (12) which put in a bold effort last start to beat all but the talented Barazin. Wins have been hard to come by, but she returns to her home track, this trip suits and Damien Thornton will have her well placed throughout.

MASTER COPY (2) gives them all weight but has been racing well since resuming and hit the line from too far back in a higher Benchmark last start. Andrew Mallyon stays on and if close enough, is good enough.

DIVINE PURPOSE (5) returned to winning form at the Sunshine Coast following a stint in Victoria where she ran in stronger races than this. She rises 3.5kg in better grade but Justin Stanley stays on and the trip won’t bother her. Considered good enough to run in the Queensland Oaks as a three-year-old, this is not beyond her.

SMART LEGEND (7) brings Sydney form and is now with Peter Robl. He has drawn the carpark but has gate speed, the shorter trip suits and Jag Guthmann-Chester won’t mess around.

Verdict – JOVITA (12) is overdue.

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Race 2 – Benchmark 85 Handicap (2400m)

EL JASOR (8) has come back in good order winning at the Sunshine Coast before narrowly missing to the in-form Arizona Dreaming last start. An improving import, this is harder, but he drops 3kg, won at this trip before arrival and will get the gun run with Angela Jones.

The stablemate AGE OF SAIL (4) beat a similar field to this a month ago and while back-to-back is a stretch, he has the same weight, Andrew Mallyon stays on and can round them up again.

CHASSAGNE (9) has been racing consistently since resuming and appreciates a soft track. She drops 2.5kg, draws to do no work and Ron Stewart will have her hitting the line.

The stablemate HOPEFUL (1) has been freshened by a recent trial and a wet track is what he needs. He hasn’t won for a long time but placed in a Group 2 and two Listed races last preparation which is better than most of these. With conditions to suit, 2kg claimer Tahlia Fenlon can head forward and be hard to pass.

Verdict – I am staying with EL JASOR (8).

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Race 3 – Class 4 Plate (1200m)

Plate conditions suit FUKUBANA (6) which wasn’t helped by a wide gate at Lismore but rattled home to be the middle peg of a stable trifecta in the Country Championships Qualifier. Winning rider Andrew Mallyon replaces Ben Looker and from gate two gets all the favours.

CASPERNOVA (1) showed he was up to Saturday grade with a comfortable win in Benchmark 70 company last start bringing up a hat-trick the process. The gate tests but he is unbeaten this preparation and can’t be discounted.

TOWN CRIER (3) beat an in-form Certainlycan in a Benchmark 70 last start when resuming. He maintains form, will get a good run with Justin Stanley and be strong late.

PIVOTAL LAD (7) is resuming after a ten-week let-up and loves a wet track. He won two of four outings last preparation and with Jag Guthmann-Chester will hit the line.

Verdict – Wary of CASPERNOVA (1) but on FUKUBANA (6).

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Race 4- Class 6 Handicap (1400m)

Hard to go past TRIBECA STAR (5) which headed the Matt Dunn trifecta in the Country Championships Qualifier at Lismore after being narrowly beaten when resuming by open class sprinters Safework and King Kapa. Now third-up, Matt McGuren stays on and from gate five he will be poised to strike.

ZOUPERB (10) gets back to her home track after hitting the line strongly at Doomben at her past two outings. She drops 4kg, will appreciate the extra 200m and with Elione Chaves will test them late.

AMORE VELOCE (9) hasn’t been helped by wide gates at her past two outings and will welcome getting on to a softer track. This trip may test but she drops 4kg and gets every chance with Taylor Marshall.

CENTRESTONE (16) hasn’t won for over a year but is fitter for two outings, drops 4kg and Angela Jones can take full advantage of the ace draw.

Verdict – Class is with TRIBECA STAR (5).

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Race 5 – Fillies and Mares Quality Handicap (1100m)

Consistency is with TECTONIC PLATE (4) which hasn’t put in a bad run this preparation and just missed here two starts back. Samantha Collett stays on, can sit off the likely strong speed and round them up late.

It has been a year since PARTY FOR TWO (3) saluted but that was on this day in the Three-Year-Old Jewel. She struggled last start over 1400m but this shorter trip suits and from gate two with Nikita Beriman there will be no excuses.

All the gear comes off CHINNY BOOM (1) which is resuming after an abortive spring and is now back with Clinton Taylor. She has been dominant at both Rockhampton trials, won her only previous start here over this trip and with Justin Stanley has the speed to overcome the gate.

MIGHTY (13) has come back to Tony Gollan after a long stint with Peter Moody. He won his only previous start here over this trip, brings winning midweek Victorian form, drops 5kg and will be prominent for a long way.

Verdict – TECTONIC PLATE (4) due.

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Race 6 – QTIS 2YO Jewel (1200m)

The one proven at the trip is IDYLLIC AFFAIR (11) which ran down Boomshanka over this journey at Doomben last start. On her home track with Michael Rodd, she gets a good run off the speed and will be hard to hold out.

Blinkers come off GRAFTERBURNERS (1) which has raced in better company than any of these hitting the line strongly to just miss a place in the Inglis Millenium last start. He will get back from the wide gate but with Cejay Graham none will finish better.

BETTERLUCKNEXTTIME (2) gets winkers and is fitter for two outings since resuming. The extra distance suits, set weights help and Ryan Wiggins will have him close enough if good enough.

PRETTY DUBIOUS (3) beat several of these in the prelude. He is not as well served under set weights but Vlad Duric stays on and can go forward to control the race.

Verdict – Home ground advantage with IDYLLIC AFFAIR (11).

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Race 7 – QTIS 3YO Jewel (1200m)

Expecting the Prelude form to run true and am with HEARTS ARE BETTER (9) which was caught wide and in the worst part of the track when beaten a length behind Dream Smart and Astapor. Better drawn here Nikita Beriman, she gets a good run off the speed and while there are some doubts at 1200m, having a Listed winning grand-dam by Galileo that produced a Derby winner provides confidence the trip is not beyond her.

Set weights favour ASTAPOR (1) which resumed well to beat all but Dream Smart in the Prelude. He has been competitive in better races than any of these and Justin Stanley can overcome a wide gate.

MR BUBBALUSKI (7) was easy in the market at the Sunshine Coast and ran accordingly. His previous form was good enough for this and from gate three Danien Thornton can box seat.

The Prelude is always the best guide and while DREAM SMART (8) got the favours from the barrier gods last outing she hasn’t been so fortunate under set weight conditions. That will pose some challenges, but Cejay Graham can find a way.

Verdict – HEARTS ARE BETTER (9) for me.

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Race 8 – Gold Coast Stakes (1800m)

A dour lot and very few that win out of turn. Lindsay Gough got the best out of MAHAGONI (7) last preparation winning the Cairns Cup. He showed he is back in good order hitting the line behind Rising Pacific and has a good third-up record. This trip suits, he appreciates softer ground and Damien Thornton will have him motoring home.

CABOCHE (5) has benefited from a recent outing and will appreciate this trip. He saves his best form for Queensland and will get every chance with Kyle Wilson-Taylor

It has been while between drinks, but WAPITI (10) has shown improvement at recent outings and has won over this trip previously. Cody Collis stays on and with a positive ride can be in the finish.

DUNE FORTY FIVE (2) disappointed last start but likes this track and has won over this trip. He mixes his form but will get all the favours from a good gate with Nikita Beriman.

Verdict – MAHAGONI (7) ready to win.

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Race 9 – Gold Jewel Quality (1400m)

No stars here but upside is with KALAMBURU (13) which performs best fresh and hit the line strongly behind Caspernova at Eagle Farm. He can be tardy at the start but with only 52kg Angela Jones can overwhelm them late.

RED DEFCON (6) finally broke through for an overdue win last start. Back-to-back tests the imagination but she rarely runs poorly and will be the finish again.

The step up to 1400m helps READY FOR ANYTHING (5) which has been running on at all four starts this preparation. Andrew Mallyon has won on him before and knows what to do.

CORFE CASTLE (2) wasn’t far off Red Defcon last start and winning rider Ryan Maloney gets back on. A good gate helps and he will be given every chance.

Verdict – A toss-up, going with KALUMBURU (13).

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Race 10 – Benchmark 78 Handicap (1000m)

Southern form is with the resuming PIASTRI (2) which has been readied by jumpouts. He goes well fresh, this trip suits and with Cody Collis’ 2kg claim gets the box seat run from gate three.

ARISPHERE (13) loves this trip has an excellent first-up record and won a recent trial. With Angela Jones she will be near the speed for a long way.

WILD BOTANICA (10) will appreciate getting on to softer ground after failing as odds-on favourite at Ipswich. The inside draw helps and with a positive ride can be in the finish.

FLAMING CONQUEST (3) has been kept fresh since running Tectonic Plate into the ground here last start. This is her trip and with Georgina Cartwright will be prominent for a long way.

Verdict – If ready, PIASTRI (2) better than these.

Originally published as Gold Coast race-by-race preview and tips for Saturday: $11 value play