Victoria Derby: Runner-by-runner form guide, tips and betting strategy

All eyes are looking ahead to the Melbourne Cup but there’s a massive day of racing at Flemington on Saturday, headlined by the Victoria Derby.

Punters Forgot You (NZ) . (Scott Barbour/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

We’ve got a full field of 16 for Saturday’s G1 Victoria Derby (2500m) at Flemington, with one of the early favourites Gunstock drawing the carpark.

At the time of publication, the meteorologists are having a bit each-way, predicting 2 to 8mm on Thursday and 2 to 6mm on Friday.

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Unless it really buckets down though, it’s hard to see the track being rated worse than a Soft 5 given Flemington’s drainage. The rail will be in the true position.

The race is scheduled to run at 3.45pm (AEDT) on Saturday and the team at punters.com.au have provided you with the ultimate form guide for the marquee event.

1. FORGOT YOU

Forgot You has won 3 of 5 this campaign and all three wins have looked unlikely, to say the least, at the 400m. He came from nowhere to mow down Sandy Prince over 1500m at The Valley second-up, before overcoming a real flat spot to take out the G2 Stutt Stakes (1600m) at the same track. He got a mile back from a bad gate in the G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) but ran home soundly for 6th there, clocking similar closing splits to Anamoe who has since been beaten a lip in the Cox Plate (2040m). Forgot You stepped beyond 2000m for the first time last start and arrived in the nick of time to nail his stablemate Commander Harry who was off and gone at the top of the straight. He gives every indication that he’ll see out this extra trip - he just keeps coming in his races - and he’s drawn nicely in barrier eight. The only real query is how much he’s got left in the tank this preparation after a couple of gut-busters.

2. TUTUKAKA

This Tony Pike-trained galloper comes into this fourth-up having raced over 1400m, 1800m and 2200m. He was flat second-up when leading here on a Soft 6, but bounced back with a strong victory in the Listed Geelong Classic last start when coming from beyond midfield. Others, namely Forgot You and Alegron, appear to be coming out of stronger form races but the gap back to 3rd (3.25L) was impressive last start and it’s hard to see the extra ground pulling him up.

3. ALEGRON

This Godolphin gelding gets the services of in-form jockey Brett Prebble here after finishing 3rd in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) last start. Profondo was in a race of his own there but Alegron battled on well to finish clear of 4th. His two unplaced efforts here have been over 1100m and 1400m (when settling second-last), so it’s probably unwise to read too much into his Flemington record.

4. GUNSTOCK

It’s hard to fault Gunstock’s lead-up into this, charging home to take out the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m) last start in a race where there was 6.5L between 1st and 4th. That was a really strong staying performance, with the runner-up El Patroness a live chance in the Oaks. He races like he’ll eat up 2500m - took an age to go through his gears over 1800m here two-back - but the ‘barrier Gods’ have not been kind to him, at all. It will take a decent Jye McNeil steer from barrier 19 (closer after scratchings).

5. AKIHIRO

Akihiro was 2nd at the 400m in last week’s G2 Vase (2040m) but faded to finish 4th, beaten 1.9L. It’s hard to see him turning the tables on Forgot You based on that effort, especially over a longer trip. He looks suspect at 2500m.

6. CHARACTER

Character has been up for an age, with his first run this campaign coming over 1000m at Moe on June 24. He has steadily improved with racing and extra distance, finishing 2nd to Tutukaka in the Geelong Classic (2200m) last start. You’d have to think Tutukaka has more scope for improvement, but this Godolphin colt does map well for Kersley. He can sneak into the minor money without surprising.

7. JUNGLE MAGNATE

This son of Tarzino (2015 Vic Derby winner) ran a real eye-catcher in the G2 Vase (2040m), coming from 11th at the 400m to grab 3rd behind Forgot You and Commander Harry. He never looked a winning hope there but it was a nice Derby trial at just his fourth career start. He should be able to settle a bit closer in this from barrier five and he’s in the right stable.

8. COMMANDER HARRY

Meech almost pinched the G2 Vase (2040m) aboard this galloper last week, stealing a decent break on Forgot You only to be claimed very late. It was a great ride, but also a big effort by ‘Harry’ who was $101 on the back of an average effort at Kyneton. It’s unlikely that Meech will be able to adopt the same tactics here (an early move while other jockeys are snoozing) but the Forgot You form means he has to be respected.

9. HITOTSU

Hitotsu found the line okay for 5th in the G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) last start but Forgot You was stronger late. He certainly wasn’t paddling at the end of 1600m but an extra 900m is still a legitimate query, especially when he’s only had two starts this preparation and they’ve been reasonably well spaced. He’s drawn well for John Allen and Maher and Eustace have tinkered with his gear, with a cross-over noseband and tongue tie being applied for the first time.

10. CERBERUS

Cerberus beat home Jungle Magnate in Adelaide last start, with that horse then running a cracker for 3rd behind Forgot You in the Vase. He’s only had three starts this son of Dundeel but it’s hard to knock anything he’s done so far. Barrier 20 does make things tough though, especially if Thornton is unable to get a cart across the field and has to snag back for cover.

11. GUNDEC

Gundec was rolled at short odds on resumption but atoned with a strong on-pace win over 1800m here two-back. He settled a bit further back than expected in the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m) last start and was just never in the hunt, finishing 7.55L off Gunstock. He can’t win on what he did last start but improvement is expected provided he steps cleanly from barrier three. Williams sticks.

12. CLYDE

Clyde was thrashed in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) two-back but enjoyed a massive class drop to score in BM58 grade at Scone last start. He had no issues with 2200m there but takes on much stronger opposition in this.

13. EL ROCKO

This McArdle-trained colt is still a maiden after eight starts and was pretty well-held in the G2 Vase (2040m) last start. He needs to find a few lengths on Forgot You and co and it’s hard to see where that improvement comes from.

14. RAGING BULL

Raging Bull won like a $1.24F should at Wyong two-back, bolting in over 2100m. He beat nothing there but was far from disgraced when 6th in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) last start as a $41 chance. He looks a real grinding sort of stayer who should see out the longer trip here. It’s hard to know where he’ll end up in the run though from barrier 17.

15. CHEERFUL MOMENT

Cheerful Moment is well-travelled for a 3YO colt, racing in New Zealand, WA and Victoria. The Lindsey Smith-trained son of Mongolian Khan was good when stepping up to 1600m third-up at Caulfield, before finding a bit of trouble in the Vase (2040m) last week. He did have excuses there but it’s hard to see him finding 11L on Forgot You and Commander Harry.

16. TEEWATERS

Teewaters broke his maiden status by 6L at Ballarat two-back, beating Tigertiger who himself has since won by 5.75L. The son of Dundeel then stepped up in grade last start and found the line nicely for 3rd in the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m) behind Gunstock. The winner clearly had his measure there, so Teewaters needs to improve, but he may just relish the extra 500m. The winkers go on the son of Dundeel for the first time.

Forgot You is a favourite for the Victoria Derby. (Scott Barbour/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

Emergencies

17E. ZOUMON

Zoumon looks the obvious leader if he gains a start and if they crawl in front like they did last year, he’d have to be a place hope. He won over 2050m on a Heavy 8 last start, so there’s clearly a bit of stamina there.

18E. SEBASTIAN THE FOX

‘Seb’ has had a pretty taxing first preparation, debuting over 1000m at Ballarat way back on July 13. He has stepped up in trip with every start since, placing behind Gundec two-back before finishing 6.5L off Gunstock in the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m) last start. Fitness certainly won’t be an issue but class might be.

19E. KING OF PHARAOHS

This Lindsey Smith-trained son of American Pharaoh broke his maiden status by 9L at Coleraine three starts ago and has been solid in two runs since. It’s hard to see him turning the tables on Tutukaka from their last-start clash though.

20E. SPIRIT OF GAYLARD

This son of cult galloper Puissance de Lune would be a real place chance if he gained a start, but unfortunately for connections that seems extremely unlikely. His closing effort for 5th behind Forgot You last start was full of merit.

Verdict

On form, Forgot You (1) is the obvious and he just races like and out-and-out stayer. The query is whether he’s now looking for the paddock after a couple of gut-busting efforts where his jockey has been hard at work at him a long way from home. I’m trusting that Busuttin and Young wouldn’t be running him if he was over the top. The value in the race might be Teewaters (16) at $18. He just gives the impression that he’ll see out the 2500m journey.

1. Forgot You

16. Teewaters

4. Gunstock

2. Alegron

$100 betting strategy

$85 on Forgot You (1) at $3.50

$15 on Teewaters (16) at $18

This article originally appeared on punters.com.au and was reproduced with permission