Victoria Derby 2020: Runner-by-runner preview and tips
With light showers predicted for Saturday’s Victoria Derby, the unpredictable conditions will make for some compelling viewing.
Saturday’s Victoria Derby (2500m) is part of a Group One smorgasbord at Flemington on what will hopefully be a Good 4 or Soft 5 track.
Obviously the forecast can swing around pretty quickly, as we’ve seen quite often in recent times, but as of Wednesday morning, only light showers are predicted on Friday and Saturday.
1. CHERRY TORTONI
The Payne-trained gelding was poor in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) two-back but that was the only miss in his seven-start career to date, so you have to forgive that. He was good behind Glenfiddich in the G2 Stutt Stakes (1600m) prior, and showed plenty of ticker to outgun Khoekhoe in the G2 Vase (2040m) last start. That was a testing surface and he covered additional ground on a day where it was certainly no disadvantage to be close to the inside rail. The main knock here is the barrier – he’s likely to be spotting his rivals a decent start from the outside gate.
TAB Odds — 4.2
2. ALBARADO
This Busuttin and Young-trained son of Savabeel was excellent winning the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m) last start. It was a real bunched finish, with only 0.9L separating 1st and 5th, but he had to sustain a long, wide run in what was a nice trial for this longer journey. All three of his runs here at Flemington have been good and he’s drawn quite well for Mark Zahra, who is riding in good form. On what we’ve seen so far, he’d probably prefer a bit more give in the ground than we are likely to get.
TAB Odds — 7
3. JOHNNY GET ANGRY
Still a maiden after six starts, ‘Johnny’ ran a cracker for 3rd here back in July when sent out at $101. Dropping back to 1400m didn’t suit three-back but his last couple of runs have been solid over 1800m and 2040m. The margin doesn’t look great for him last start (7.2L behind Cherry Tortoni), but his work in the straight was encouraging after taking an age to wind up around The Valley. We’ve seen him run well at this track and he certainly gives the impression that the rise to 2500m will suit. The Pagan-trained gelding looks overs at $34.
TAB Odds — 34
4. LET’S KARAKA DEEL
Let’s Karaka Deel showed plenty of fight when challenged in the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m) last start. He looked a chance to drop out of the placings but kicked back hard to split Albarado and Hit The Shot. Prior to that he was a complete forgive job here over 1800m when held up for basically the entire straight. The Maher and Eustace colt maps to lead, or at least race in the first four, from barrier three. He’s a hard one to assess from a distance perspective but his sire Dundeel was an ATC Derby winner.
TAB Odds — 10
5. YOUNG WERTHER
It would be some sort of training effort if Young Werther can get the job done here. A track downgrade at Moonee Valley saw him scratched from last Saturday’s Vase, meaning it’s been four weeks since his last run. His most recent effort – a 2nd to Khoekhoe over 1800m at Flemington – was very good, but he jumps another 700m for this. On paper, it looks a huge ask at just his third career run, but Danny O’Brien did something similar with Russian Camelot earlier this year. Russian Camelot was third-up, with runs spaced, stepping from 1600m to 2500m when he took out the G1 SA Derby (2500m) in brilliant fashion. Barrier four and Damien Oliver are certainly positives here and he may just be too classy.
TAB Odds — 4
6. HIT THE SHOT
Hit The Shot worked home well for 3rd behind Albarado and Let’s Karaka Deel in the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m) at Caulfield last start. He produced a similar performance over 1800m at Flemington prior and looks suited up in distance. It’s been a nice progression into this – 1400m – 1500m – 1800m – 2000m – for the son of Dundeel.
TAB Odds — 7
7. CETSHWAYO
Another son of Dundeel, Cetshwayo unleashed a powerful finishing burst to win impressively here two-back. He then stepped up to 2000m at Caulfield last start but raced a bit keenly at stages and didn’t finish off at all. The Soft 6 conditions may also have been against him there, so he could easily bounce back without surprising. The winkers go on for the first time here.
TAB Odds — 17
8. REDWOOD SHADOW
This Price and Kent-trained gelding loomed large in the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m) last start but didn’t quite finish off. In saying that, he was only 0.4L off the winner in 4th, so it was hardly a fail. He was third-up there, going from 1600m to 2000m, so you’d imagine there is further improvement to come fitness-wise. He hasn’t shown any gate speed in any of his three outings, so you’d imagine McNeil will just take him back to the rear from barrier 12.
TAB Odds — 13
9. WERTHEIMER
This Tavistock gelding copped a poor steer in the race won by Cetshwayo here two-back, before failing badly in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m). You couldn’t possibly back him here based on that effort, but Cherry Tortoni was also poor in that race before bouncing back at The Valley last Saturday. He’s drawn well for Bowman.
TAB Odds — 26
10. TOUR OF DUTY
Tour Of Duty ran a big race at 30-1 here two-back when just grabbed by Cetshwayo. The winner there didn’t exactly frank the form at his next start though and others were better than this Moroney-trained colt in the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m) last start. Minor claims look best but McDonald taking the ride is an obvious tick.
TAB Odds — 26
11. TOKEN SPIRIT
A 2046m maiden winner at Benalla three-back, Token Spirit has since been out the placings at Flemington (1800m) and Geelong (2200m). His Geelong Classic effort was solid (4th, beaten 2.6L), but that race doesn’t look the best form reference this year.
TAB Odds — 51
12. BORN TO SUCCEED
Can’t blame Saab Hasan for having a throw at the stumps here with this last-start Wodonga maiden winner, but the Snitzel colt does look up against it. He finished over 7L off Young Werther and Albarado over 1800m here two-back.
TAB Odds — 101
13. WISAKA
Four-start maiden Wisaka worked home fairly for 5th in the Geelong Classic (2200m) last start and would need to find a few lengths on that to feature here. He’s drawn to settle reasonably handy to the speed though and Melham is a strong booking.
TAB Odds — 41
14. KENZAN
The outsider of O’Brien’s trio, Kenzan was just fair in the Geelong Classic (2200m) last start and was beaten by Art Glass prior – a horse who was beaten 8.2L at her next start. He should enjoy a pretty economical run from the inside peg but 100-1 looks about right.
TAB Odds — 71
VERDICT
5. Young Werther
3. Johnny Get Angry
2. Albarado
1. Cherry Tortoni
$100 BETTING STRATEGY
$60 WIN on Young Werther @ $4
$10 WIN/$30 PLACE on Johnny Get Angry @ $34/$7
This article originally appeared on punters.com.au and was reproduced with permission
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