The Melbourne Cup field is set – these eight horses are the real contenders

The 24-horse field for this year’s Melbourne Cup is set but the pre-draw favourite has come back to the pack with a nightmare barrier draw.

The Melbourne Cup is just days away and we’re running out of time to study the form guide, tips and best bets for the 24-horse race that stops a nation.

But after the field was set on Saturday there appears to be a crop of contenders that have elevated themselves above the pack – and there’s a distinct Irish flavour this year.

But before the barrier draw, Tiger Moth was the clear favourite but drawing barrier 23, Anthony Van Dyck has moved into favouritism, with Sir Dragonet right on his tail according to Ladbrokes.

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THE CONTENDERS

Horse — Barrier — Jockey — Trainer — Weight – Odds

1: Anthony Van Dyck (IRE) — Barrier 3 — Hugh Bowman — Aidan O’Brien — 58.5kg – Win: $7.50 Place: $2.60

Anthony Van Dyck appears to be one of the highest-rated runners brought to Australia in some time. He’s only had four runs in 2020 but that includes beating the world’s leading stayer Stradivarius in the Group 2 Prix Foy (2400m) in France and challenging late in a second-placed finish in the Caulfield Cup.

Why he can win: Any horse that takes down Stradivarius has to be respected in this race. And a favourable barrier draw has brought his odds in a bit.

Why he can't win: Will carry more weight than any other runner in the past 30 years – even Makybe Diva only carried 58kg in 2005 – and has never won past a distance of 2420m.

21: Tiger Moth (IRE) — Barrier 23 — Kerrin McEvoy — Aidan O’Brien — 52.5kg – Win: $8 Place: $2.80

He’s only lightly-raced but this Northern Hemisphere three-year-old hasn’t missed a place in any of his four starts. Aidan O’Brien is desperate to win his first Melbourne Cup and has earmarked this horse as his best chance. He’s also got the nod from champion trainer Peter Moody. “I’ve got to be honest, he’s the one that I hold the most respect for when they nominated him as their Melbourne Cup horse,” Moody said.

Why he can win: He’s a northern hemisphere three-year-old combining with jockey Kerrin McEvoy. The last time this happened, it delivered a win in the 2018 Cup with Cross Counter.

Why he can't win: Hasn’t won at a distance past 2414m. Plus his barrier draw has seen his odds drift slightly.

5: Sir Dragonet (IRE) — Barrier 14 — Glen Boss — Ciaron Maher & David Eustace — 55.5kg – Win: $8.50 Place: $2.90

Could have been the Melbourne Cup imports version of Tom Melbourne after four straight seconds in 2020 before a huge win in the 100th running of the Cox Plate saw him shrug off that unwanted tag.

Why he can win: Was a convincing winner in the Cox Plate and looked like he wanted to go further. Maher and Eustace have a great track record with longer-distance races so far in season 2020-21.

Why he can't win: Possibly needs a softer track which may or may not be forthcoming in Melbourne in November.

13: Surprise Baby (NZ) — Barrier 7 — Craig Williams — Paul Preusker — 54.5kg – Win: $9 Place: $3 

The NZ-bred and Australian-trained Surprise Baby has another chance at notching up a racing fairytale after finishing strongly to claim fifth in last year’s Melbourne Cup. Bought for just $5000, he’s already earned his owners $1 million although he didn’t figure in his last outing, finishing ninth in the Turnbull Stakes.

Why he can win: He’s delivered a big performance in the Melbourne Cup before.

Why he can't win: He has to lug two more kilos than his last Cup run.

12: Prince of Arran (GB) — Barrier 1 — Jamie Kah — Charlie Fellowes — 54.5kg – Win: $10 Place: $3.20

Good ol’ Prince Of Arran loves it here in Australia during spring, having placed in the Melbourne Cup the last two years. It could be third time lucky after his impressive finish in the Caulfield Cup, where he came from last and ran the third-fastest closing sectional of the entire meeting on his way to finishing fourth.

Why he can win: Horse thrives in Australia and hasn’t missed a place in the Cup.

Why he can't win: Only two eight-year-olds have previously won the Cup.

7: Verry Elleegant (NZ) — Barrier 15 — Mark Zahra — Chris Waller — 55.5kg – Win: $13 Place: $4

A six-time group one winner, Verry Elleegant is a staying mare who tends to perform best over the longer distances and boasts a seriously strong finish. Her record could even be better, given she finished second in three G1s during the Autumn.

Why she can win: Has been the best performed horse of the season so far with three impressive Group One victories, including one at Flemington and a first major at the Caulfield Cup.

Why she can't win: Chris Waller has had a few shots at winning the Melbourne Cup but still hasn’t nailed one. This year may be his best chance yet.

15: Russian Camelot (IRE) — Barrier 16 — Damien Oliver — Danny O’Brien — 53.5kg – Win: $13 Place: $4

Australia’s boom horse in 2020 and one of the early favourites for the Melbourne Cup after his eye-catching win in the SA Derby, Russian Camelot hasn’t missed a place in six starts this year. That included third in the Cox Plate as he found another classy Irish import in Sir Dragonet too good in that race.

Why he can win: Having won the Melbourne Cup with Vow And Declare, O’Brien knows what it takes to train the race winner and he seems to have one here with more natural staying talent than his 2019 Cup winner.

Why he can't win: Russian Camelot’s barrier manners remain a work in progress. He was unsettled before the Makybe Diva Stakes and required a vet clearance to run. The question is, how will he go with a full barrier of 24 horses around him?

18: Ashrun (FR) — Barrier 24 — Declan Bates— Andreas Wohler — 53kg – Win: $18 Place: $5.50

Andreas Wohler has teamed up with Australian Bloodstock before to win the Melbourne Cup with Protectionist in 2014 and the combination will look to do it again with Ashrun this year. The five-year-old was a late entry into the Melbourne Cup field, having won his way through the hard way via the Lexus Hotham Stakes on Derby Day at Flemington.

Why she can win: Has a proven trainer/owner combo for Melbourne Cup success and will be carrying just 53kg.

Why she can’t win: It’s always difficult for horses to back up and win the Cup just four days after racing in the Lexus. Plus the outside gate is far from ideal.

Verry Elleegant (NZ) ridden by Mark Zahra wins the Caulfield Cup. (Pat Scala /Racing Photos via Getty Images)

OUTSIDE CHANCES

11: Finche (GB) — Barrier 6 — James McDonald — Chris Waller — 54.5kg – Win: $16 Place: $4.80

Why he can win: Horse is proven performer at the 3200m distance.

Why he can't win: Has only the single win under Waller.

4: Master of Reality (IRE) — Barrier 11 — Ben Melham — Joseph O’Brien — 56kg – Win: $26 Place: $7.50

Why he can win: Despite finishing second last year, Master Of Reality has only copped a 0.5kg weight increase on 2019. He’s also from a combination of Lloyd Williams and Joseph O’Brien that delivered Cup success in 2017 with Rekindling.

Why he can't win: May have missed his chance to win it in 2019.

23: Miami Bound (NZ) — Barrier 13 — Daniel Moor — Danny O’Brien — 51kg – Win: $31 Place: $8

Why she can win: Comes from the reigning Melbourne Cup winner Danny O’Brien’s stable.

Why she can’t win: Her form since winning the VRC Oaks has been inconsistent and she seems to struggle on better surfaces, which she might face in the spring.

9: Stratum Albion (GB) — Barrier 9 — Jordan Childs — Willie Mullins — 55kg – Win: $31 Place: $8

Why he can win: Has some staying ability, his last effort was rated a 114 and is trained by Willie Mullins.

Why he can’t win: Has never won at Stakes level.

19: Warning — Barrier 8 — Luke Currie — Anthony & Sam Freedman — 53kg – Win: $34 Place: $8.50

Why he can win: Will only be carrying 53kg in the Cup.

Why he can't win: Hasn’t won in eight attempts since the Derby.

3: Vow and Declare — Barrier 4 — Jamie Mott — Danny O’Brien — 57kg – Win: $34 Place: $8.50

Why he can win: Been there before — the 2019 Melbourne Cup winner knows how it’s done.

Why he can’t: Has a bundle of weight this year with 57kg.

6: Twilight Payment (IRE) — Barrier 12 — Jye McNeil — Joseph O’Brien — 55.5kg – Win: $41 Place: $9.50

Why he can win: Has tremendous competitive spirit and has the right trainer/owner combination for Cup success with some solid form behind him in Ireland.

Why he can't: Only two eight-year-olds have previously won the Cup.

Persan ridden by Jye McNeil wins the The Bart Cummings, at Flemington Racecourse on October 03. (Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

THE ROUGHIES

2: Avilius (GB) — Barrier 10 — John Allen — James Cummings — 57kg – Win: $41 Place: $11

16: Steel Prince (IRE) — Barrier 21 — Willie Pike — Anthony & Sam Freedman — 53.5kg – Win: $41 Place: $9.50

24: Persan — Barrier 20 — Michael Dee — Ciaron Maher & David Eustace — 51kg – Win: $51 Place: $10

17: The Chosen One (NZ) — Barrier 5 — Daniel Stackhouse — Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman — 53.5kg – Win: $51 Place: $10

8: Mustajeer (GB) — Barrier 2 — Michael Rodd — Kris Lees — 55kg – Win: $61 Place: $16

14: King of Leogrance (FR) — Barrier 18 — Damian Lane — Danny O’Brien — 53.5kg – Win: $67 Place: $18

22: Oceanex (NZ) — Barrier 17 — Dean Yendall — Mick Price & Michael Kent — 51.5kg – Win: $71 Place: $19

20: Etah James (NZ) — Barrier 22 — Billy Egan — Ciaron Maher & David Eustace — 52.5kg – Win: $151 Place: $31

10: Dashing Willoughby (GB) — Barrier 19 — Michael Walker — Andrew Balding — 54.5kg – Win: $151 Place: $34

For full bios on every Melbourne Cup runner visit punters.com.au