Caulfield Cup: Runner-by-runner preview, tips and betting strategy
The most glorious time of the year for racing is upon us as punters prepare for today’s Caulfield Cup. Check out the field and tips here.
The first of the big three spring feature races is upon us, with a capacity field of 18 set to face the starter in today’s G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m).
Complicating matters is the threat of rain, with 3-10mm forecast to fall in Melbourne.
With that in mind, we could see a bit of give in the ground by the time the race rolls around at 5.15pm (AEDT).
The rail will be in the true position after being out 10m for Wednesday’s Blue Sapphire meeting.
VIEW THE FULL ODDS COMPARISON ON PUNTERS.COM.AU
1. ANTHONY VAN DYCK
A win over superstar stayer Stradivarius last start obviously reads well and it was certainly no fluke. The Aidan O’Brien-trained galloper has won the G1 Epsom Derby over this trip, beating Japan, and finished 2nd to the world’s best racehorse (according to Longines’ rankings) Ghaiyyath in the G1 Coronation Cup (2414m) at Newmarket three-back. The carpark draw means he’ll probably roll forward in a race where they are unlikely to burn early. A knock on him, apart from the 58.5kg, is the fact he was beaten 14L the last time he raced outside of Europe. His class is obvious - it just comes down to whether he can bring his best form to Australia. He probably doesn’t want too much rain but a surface worse than a Soft 6 seems pretty unlikely.
TAB odds: 6.5
2. AVILIUS
The Godolphin gelding is not the same horse we saw a couple of preparations ago but his form this campaign has been okay on good tracks. He was clearly the best of the closers in the G2 Chelmford Stakes (1600m) on resumption, before making no impact at all second-up over the same trip in the G1 George Main Stakes. While no match for Kolding, his 2nd in the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m) was solid for this longer journey fourth-up. A wet track would see his chances increase significantly (needs Soft 6) but his G1 record in Melbourne is a real concern (7:0-0-0).
TAB odds: 26
3. VOW AND DECLARE
Vow And Declare finished 2nd in this race last year with 52.5kg before going on to win the Melbourne Cup. He rises to 57kg this year and his form is nowhere near as strong. The O’Brien-trained gelding has been unplaced in four runs since the G1 Australian Cup (2000m) and although he was only beaten 2.8L in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) last start, others here were much better than him in that.
TAB odds: 34
4. BUCKHURST
Buckhurst’s last couple don’t look great on paper but he did have 63.5kg last start and was set a task after settling well back. Prior to that he spun his wheels on a wet track at The Curragh. If you judge him on his 1.5L win over Sir Dragonet three starts back, then he has to be considered some sort of hope. His one placing over this trip came behind Norway, who hasn’t shown a great deal in Australia for Chris Waller.
TAB odds: 11
5. MIRAGE DANCER
Mirage Dancer finished 3rd in this event last year (carrying 56kg) as a $16 chance. He has mixed his form a little since then but he put his best hoof forward to take out the G1 Metropolitan (2400m) at Randwick last start. A brilliant steer by Nash Rawiller certainly aided his cause there, but he still had to pull out plenty to outgun the promising Mugatoo. He handles all surfaces and is well-weighted in this. A repeat of last year’s run would see him figure in the finish and his $26 quote looks overs.
TAB odds: 17
6. MUSTAJEER
This Australian Bloodstock import ran really well in this race last year, coming from beyond midfield to finish 6th, beaten 1.8L. He then measured up at the top level in Sydney over the autumn, finishing 2nd to Verry Elleegant (albeit a distant 2nd) in the G1 Tancred Stakes (2400m). His form since resuming looks very average on paper but he wasn’t disgraced with 58kg in The Metrop last start. Rain could lead to improvement at monster odds.
TAB odds: 71
7. VERRY ELLEEGANT
This mare was brilliant in Sydney over the autumn and she’s carried that form through to the spring. The former Kiwi took out the G1 Winx Stakes (1400m), defeating Fierce Impact who won the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at his next start, before encountering some traffic issues in the G1 George Main Stakes (1600m). She atoned for that unplaced effort with victory in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) last start. The margin there was only narrow but she travelled wide on a firm deck and was certainly there to be beaten over the final 100m. The likelihood of rain falling on Saturday is massive and if the track is a Soft 5 or worse, she’s the one they have to beat.
TAB odds: 5
8. DASHING WILLOUGHBY
This Andrew Balding-trained raider won well over this trip three-back before taking out the G3 Henry II Stakes (3264m) in comfortable fashion, with Cross Counter some 12.3L away in 3rd. He finished a well-held 4th in the G2 Lonsdale Cup (3270m) last start but was only 2.5L behind brilliant stayer Enbihaar. He should be able to make the most of barrier two, with the lead up for the taking in a race lacking natural on-pacers.
TAB odds: 26
9. FINCHE
Finche endured a tough run in this race last year but battled on well for 5th, beaten 1.6L. He was off the scene for over 300 days following his 7th in the Melbourne Cup but he certainly lost nothing over the break based on his form this campaign. The Waller import resumed with a close-up 3rd in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) before just missing out in a three-way finish to the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) last start. He’ll strip much fitter from that and he shouldn’t have any issues getting one-off, or leading, if Lane sends him forward from his middle draw.
TAB odds: 11
10. PRINCE OF ARRAN
The popular veteran had a brilliant spring in Melbourne last year, winning the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) on his way to another placing in the Melbourne Cup. He was flogged in the G1 Gold Cup (4014m) two-back but warmed up nicely late to finish a distant 3rd to Enable over this distance last start. The Melbourne Cup is obviously his target race again, but he did run well in the G2 Herbert Power at this track/distance when first-up in Australia last year. The draw probably means he’ll be ridden forward.
TAB odds: 17
11. MASTER OF WINE
Master Of Wine made rapid progress in the autumn, finishing his campaign with a 4th behind Addeybb in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m). Unsurprisingly he came into the spring with big wraps on him but his first-up effort in the G1 Winx Stakes (1400m) was underwhelming. He was better second-up in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) - better, not brilliant - before working home well for 5th in the Turnbull (2000m) last start. Verry Elleegant beat him home by 0.8L there but he meets her 2.5kg better at the weights in this. Barrier seven looks the perfect draw for him with Williams piloting.
TAB odds: 8
12. THE CHOSEN ONE
This Kiwi stayer looked set for a big campaign when he won impressively first-up at Flemington over 1700m. However, his two runs since have been poor - finishing 5.05L off Chapada in last week’s G2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m). The blinkers go back on but it’s hard to see him being a factor here.
TAB odds: 71
13. WARNING
Last year’s Victoria Derby (2500m) winner has failed to salute the judge in eight runs since. He was a bit disappointing in Sydney but his two efforts this campaign have been encouraging. The Freedman gelding worked home well without threat in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m), before catching the eye with a fast-finishing 6th in the Turnbull. He clocked the fastest final 600m/400m/200m splits and appears to be crying out for this trip. The very wide draw means he’s going to be spotting his rivals a huge start here though.
TAB odds: 21
14. DALASAN
He’s very genuine this SA galloper, finishing out of the placings just six times in his 19 starts. Two of those unplaced runs have come at his last couple, but he was only 1.9L away in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) and 0.3L off Verry Elleegant in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) last start. Pike, yet another different jockey for this horse, may follow Finche across to look for a spot in the first three of four.
TAB odds: 15
15. TRUE SELF
The OTI mare performed well in Australia last spring, finishing 2nd to Prince Of Arran in the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) before taking out the G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2600m) in soft fashion. Her form since has been average, but she’s gone around in some pretty hot races. Her last-start run in the Ebor looks horrible on paper but she completely bombed the start there, so it’s worth forgiving the margin. She maps nicely from barrier four.
TAB odds: 34
16. AKTAU
Aktau won his way into this race via the Mornington Cup (2400m) earlier in the year but his two efforts since resuming have been very disappointing. The Moroney gelding was beaten out of sight in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and pulled up with no obvious issues. It’s pretty hard to recommend him.
17. TOFFEE TONGUE
The Waller mare has won just 1 from 12 but that was a G1 race (the SA Oaks) and she’s placed in the G1 ATC Oaks (2400m) and the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m). She surprised more than a few with her effort in the Turnbull as a $71 hope, sprinting hard late to finish a head off Verry Elleegant. She drops to just 51kg and definitely has claims if she can repeat her last-start performance. She should enjoy an economical run around midfield from barrier five.
TAB odds: 13
18. CHAPADA
This Moroney gelding raced okay over the winter without setting the world on fire. Lord Belvedere had his measure a couple of times and Sasko and Sin to Win beat him home in the Listed Banjo Paterson Series Final (2600m). However, a little 77-day break has really sparked something in the 5YO, with his two runs this preparation well above what we saw last campaign. While he was visually impressive winning the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) last Saturday, that form may not be the right form this year.
TAB odds: 21
EMERGENCIES
19. Raheen House — Not going well enough and will likely settle in a different postcode from the draw.
20. San Huberto — The OTI import is a Listed winner over this trip and a G2 winner over 3000m. He’s showing staying promise but he might find these a bit sharp first-up in Australia.
21. Oceanex — The Price and Kent-trained mare has only beaten a handful of runners home in three runs this preparation.
22. Le Don De Vie — Freedman import who should win races in Australia - but not this one.
This article originally appeared in punters.com.au and was reproduced with permission
Diet delivers stakes breakthrough for She’s Bulletproof
She’s Bulletproof claimed a deserved stakes win in the Group 3 Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes after she was put on a diet and exercise program.
‘This is what the game is about’: $7000 buy chasing Doncaster spot
Willaidow, an unwanted yearling who was sold for $7000 and races with three pins in his leg, could be set for the Doncaster Mile after a career-best win in the Group 3 Southern Cross Stakes.
‘Dream is alive’: Schofield’s desire to be linked with champion horse
Chad Schofield is back among the top in Sydney’s riding ranks even though it’s taken longer than expected, and there’s one horse that can help one-time teen prodigy achieve his dream.