Preview and tips for Victoria Derby Day at Flemington

FORM GUIDE: It’s going to be a tough day for punters at over the weekend as the countdown to the Flemington racing carnival enters its final hours.

CRANBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - NOVEMBER 02: Natalie Young who trains with partner Trent Bussuttin is seen riding Main Stage at Cranbourne Turf Club on November 2, 2017 in Cranbourne, Australia. Main Stage is one of the favourites for Saturdays Victoria Derby at Flemington. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

FOUR Group One races, massive fields and a wide-open Derby — it promises to be a fascinating day at headquarters to kick-off the Flemington racing carnival.

The first of nine races gets underway at 11:45am (AEDT) on what is likely to be a good 4 track given the forecast of mostly fine weather in the lead-up.

The rail will be in the true position for the first time since September 16. The track played evenly that day, with runners coming down the middle of the course in the straight races.

Full preview and tips below.

Incoming: One huge week of horse racing.

FLEMINGTON RACE 1

Snitzepeg and Lord Sundowner should settle 1-2, with the latter likely to take up the running. Hypnotist and Gaulois may roll forward from out wide, with Sambro another who can race handy. Danger Deal can settle on the back of the leaders from barrier 1.

Barrier 2 is awkward and he’ll need a lot more luck than he got last start but Octabello (11) is a promising colt who shouldn’t have any issues with 1600m. He charged home to win well over 1400m here two-back before crossing the line under a hold last start in what was a complete forgive run. He finished 8th but he should have at least placed.

Levendi (7) was terrific without luck in the G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m), hitting the line nicely for 6th after being held-up at a vital stage. Melham should be able to settle the Gelagotis colt in a nice trailing position from barrier 5 and he’ll be hard to hold out if the break come for him.

Mactier (14) is probably the best roughie at $31. The Price gelding had genuine excuses at his first couple of runs this campaign before working home well for 5th at Caulfield last start, 1.85L off Snitzepeg. He clocked the fastest final 400m (23.14) and the best last 200m (11.96). The extra distance here looks suitable and barrier 7 is perfect for him.

Snitzepeg (1) maps well coming off back-to-back 1400m wins. Not convinced about him at 1600m but he’s rock-hard fit and it’s dangerous taking on Weir runners in form.

Verdict: Octabello (11) for the win. Also happy to have a couple of dollars each-way on Mactier at $31.

FLEMINGTON RACE 2

Pres de Toi looks the leader from barrier 4 ahead of Hiyaam. Improvise, Glam Guru and Rimraam shouldn’t be too far away. Sydney filly Luvaluva has a bit of an awkward draw to contend with (maybe goes back?).

Pure Scot (2) makes some each-way appeal at $19 (in early markets). She was poor in the G1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) last start but excellent prior in the G2 Edward Manifold here over the same trip. She was beaten 2.65L but copped a very ordinary steer and really should have finished much closer to the winner Bring Me Roses. The extra distance here looks a big tick.

Bring Me Roses (1) hasn’t raced since winning the Edward Manifold (1600m) here on October 7 and she’s only had two runs since July 22 which is some concern given the step up to 2000m. However, her breeding suggests she’ll appreciate this longer trip and she’s yet to put a foot wrong in her short career to date.

Hiyaam (5) battled on gamely for 2nd here two-back before again whacking away for a minor placing over this distance at Caulfield. She’s no star but she’s a reliable beginner who should settle in a handy spot from barrier 3.

Luvaluva (7) will have her admirers. She maps awkwardly in this but she’s been competitive against some pretty handy Sydney fillies this campaign. The Weir-trained Teodora (10) got a mile back last start but hit the line fairly stepping up to this trip for the first time.

Verdict: Pure Scot (2)

FLEMINGTON RACE 3

Straight-course dash with Desert Lashes likely to duel for the lead with Sheidel. Lake Como will probably head up the outside division. Nieta, Zestful and Motown Lil should settle in the second-half of the field.

This is seriously tough because there are legitimate queries over the top two fancies in Sheidel (1) and Nieta (5). The former has been competitive in Group races this preparation but she’s racing below her best and has 59kg, while the latter was ordinary last start but her run in The Shorts (1100m) three-back is certainly good enough to win this. The blinkers go on Nieta (5) for the first time which might be enough to give her one more chance...

Lake Como (7) is one to consider at longer odds. She’s 3 from 3 when fresh and has won 3 races down the straight. She was awesome winning here over 1200m when resuming back in March this year.

You know what you’re going to get with Lyuba (6). She boasts 12 top-two finishes from just 16 starts and she won her only previous start down the straight. She was better than Nieta last start but is double the price in this. Level of improvement is the key.

Verdict: Nieta (5)

FLEMINGTON RACE 4

Ecuador and Cismontane are both on-pacers from the Waterhouse/Bott yard so whoever Gai wants to lead, will probably do so. Aloft won’t be too far away in what looks a fairly straightforward map. Vengeur Masque and Guardini next in running. Hopefully we don’t see a repeat of Baster’s antics on Cismontane last Saturday where he led and slowed the field to a walk.

Harlem (2) has talent but he doesn’t always bring his A-game which makes him a bit of a tricky betting proposition. He was simply dominant winning the G3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m) three-back before putting in an average one at this track/distance. His run in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) was just okay but he did race in restricted room from the inside alley. He was blinkers first time there but they come off here and the winkers go back on.

Vengeur Masque (6) showed good fight to take out the Geelong Cup (2400m) last start but it was a good day to be up on the speed (sat 2nd throughout). That was his best performance for some time so if he can hold that level he should be competitive.

Aloft (4) was horrendous last start but he got his tongue over the bit so it might be worth forgiving that effort. His previous form reads well for this and he does seem to enjoy racing here (4:2-0-1).

Kellstorm (10) has been in work for an age but he continues to race well and he loves this trip (4:3-0-1).

Verdict: Harlem (2)

FLEMINGTON RACE 5

Straight-course race and an absolute nightmare for racecaller Matt Hill with 20 horses to deal with. The first four out should be Houtzen, Invincible Star, Eptimum and Formality, who have all drawn in the first half of the field (inside rail).

Invincible Star (19) was awesome winning over this distance at Caulfield last start, showing brilliant speed to cross from out wide before booting clear to win by 4L in slick time. She’s had one previous run down the straight, winning by 2.25L over 1000m on debut. The pressure will be hot here but she’s got the barrier to trail Eptimum/Houtzen if she doesn’t bounce out in front.

Lone Eagle (11) looks big odds at $67. His one run down the straight was a total forgive job so ignore that effort. His racing pattern (get back, run on) means that he can often find trouble but he possesses a very handy turn-of-foot when he sees clean air. His 3rd in the Blue Sapphire (1200m) last start was arguably the run of the race on a day where it wasn’t easy to make ground from the back.

Eptimum (10) has come from nowhere to be a legitimate Group One contender. It was only 5 weeks ago that he was breaking his maiden status at Ballarat. Since then he’s recorded a dominant win at Bendigo in solid time before destroying his G3 opposition at Moonee Valley last Saturday. It was a fast track there but his sectionals were still impressive.

Viridine (5) looks seriously talented but barrier 1 in these straight-course races is rarely a good draw. Tulip (17) wasn’t far away in The Everest (1200m) last start and has the services of leading international hoop Jamie Spencer.

Verdict: Invincible Star (19)

FLEMINGTON RACE 6

Global Glamour should take up the running from barrier 3 ahead of I Am A Star, Sword of Light and Silent Sedition. Prompt Response will probably be sent forward from out wide to look for a spot in the first 5 or 6. Tough draw for Daysee Doom!

Shoals (16) bumped into a very handy one in Aloisia last start but she held the rest pretty comfortably, including Alizee who was coming off a 2.3L win in the G1 Flight Stakes (1600m). Aloisia has since franked the form with a devastating win in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley last Saturday. Expecting Shoals to settle just forward of midfield here and she should be hard to hold out with her feather weight of 50kg.

It was odd to see Dixie Blossoms (8) drop back to 1200m last start (after winning over 1600m) but she still ran pretty well and she’ll appreciate the step back up in distance. Her overall record at the mile is very good, with her ‘worst’ performance (placing-wise) a 4th (beaten 0.8L) in this race last year.

Global Glamour (2) looks the leader from barrier 3 and she’s obviously come back in terrific order based on her G2 Tristarc win at Caulfield. Second-up last campaign she worked very hard to cross from a wide alley in the Magic Millions and was just run down late by Flying Jess - they clocked serious time there.

Shillelagh (20) has to be considered if she manages to get a run (4th emergency). She was badly held-up at Randwick two-back before charging home for 3rd behind Global Glamour at Caulfield last start.

Verdict: Shoals (16)

FLEMINGTON RACE 7

Beachwood may lead if he gains a start. If not it will probably be Greycliffe who takes it up ahead of Ace High, Ocean’s Fourteen and Rockarral. Weather With You should settle around midfield near the fence. The map isn’t kind to Main Stage but Walker will have time to slot in somewhere from barrier 14.

Weather With You (7) looks a genuine stayer who pulled out plenty to hold off Ocean’s Fourteen in the Geelong Classic (2200m) last start. The blinkers were applied for the first time there and it was also Zahra’s first sit on the Baker/Forsman gelding. He sat closer than we’d seen previously and there’s no reason why he can’t settle midfield or better in this from barrier 2. Personally think he’ll eat up 2500m so happy to be with him at around $8.50.

Greycliffe (12) is an interesting runner. He’s coming out of weaker races than most of his rivals but he has the early speed to settle in the first couple without too much trouble. He beat walkers over 2200m at Seymour last start and the overall time wasn’t flash but he maintained a pretty strong speed from the 800m to the post, recording splits of 12.05, 12.04, 11.68 and 12.13. Can’t see the extra 300m pulling him up, especially if Childs can dictate the tempo to suit - like he did last start.

The gap between runs is a little concern with Ace High (1) but he should have a pretty strong fitness base given he’s been in work since July. He was pretty dominant winning the G3 Gloaming (1800m) two-back before digging deep to hold off Tangled in the G2 Spring Champion (2000m) last time.

Sully (6) is still a bit green but his talent is obvious. He was only 1.6L off Ace High in the G1 Spring Champion last start and he was strong at the line. Bowman on is a tick. Main Stage (5) is another with claims but you can’t tip them all.

Verdict: Weather With You (7)

FLEMINGTON RACE 8

Not a huge amount of speed here so Tom Melbourne should find the front fairly comfortably if Boss lets him stride from the gate. He looks the leader from Dibayani and Radipole. Sense of Occasion and Tosen Stardom map to settle just forward of midfield.

If this was Millionaire Hot Seat I’d take a pass. Any race with Tom Melbourne, Dibayani, Omei Sword and So Si Bon engaged has nightmare written all over it.

Tosen Stardom (1) finally stepped up to 1600m last start and showed his true colours, charging home to win the G1 Toorak Handicap in stylish fashion. He has 58kg to contend with here but he’s got less convictions than many of these and he maps nicely for Lane. This is the race he was set for at the start of the spring.

Tom Melbourne (5) should lead in a race where there doesn’t appear to be a great deal of speed. He finds it extraordinarily hard to win but Waller has him going well and he should be in the finish again. Hard to back him with any real confidence though given his last win was nearly 600 days ago.

Sovereign Nation (10) chased home Tosen Stardom in the Toorak last start following a solid 4th in the G1 Rupert Clarke. He didn’t beat much but he was simply dominant winning here over 1400m three-back and he does boast a good overall record here at headquarters. Bayliss should be able to hold a forward position from barrier 3.

Egg Tart (6) has had an interrupted preparation but her best is certainly good enough to win this. Whether she can hit that level remains to be seen. Her only previous run here was a 2.75L win over this trip back in April (heavy 8 track).

Verdict: Tosen Stardom (1)

FLEMINGTON RACE 9

Straight-course race to close out the program and the leader should come from either The Monstar, Malibu Style or Sweet Sherry.

Rich Charm (11) has won 7 from 16 and is pretty bombproof in terms of his racing style (can settle forward or back). He surged late to win over this trip at Caulfield last start and traditionally he has improved further when 3rd-up (won over this distance in a brilliant 1:08.88 last campaign). He has had one run over the Flemington 1200m for a 2.75L win in terrific time back in March this year.

Illustrious Lad (1) is a ripper down the straight, particularly over this distance (4:2-1-0). The Gelagotis gelding won this race last year with 54.5kg (goes up 3.5kg) in a sizzling time of 1:08.31. His last-start 2nd at Caulfield, splitting Super Cash and Rock Magic, was a lovely return off a 147-day break.

Man From Uncle (15) is an interesting runner from the Anthony Cummings yard. He’s only lightly-raced but he’s shown glimpses of serious talent, including his fast-finishing 3rd here over 1400m a year ago. He’s 2 from 2 when fresh, including a strong win over this trip at Randwick last preparation. He appears to have drawn the right part of the track.

First Among Equals (5) finished 7th at his Victorian debut last start but he should have been in the finish. He was dreadfully unlucky and you can mark that race down as a trial. He’s probably the best roughie at $21.

Verdict: Rich Charm (11) for the win.