Melbourne Cup 2020: Punter’s huge bet on hot contender

One punter is hoping Jamie Kah will follow in Michelle Payne’s footsteps, putting their faith in a jockey in the form of her life.

A late betting plunge has seen Tiger Moth emerge as a standout favourite for the Melbourne Cup.

Despite a rough barrier draw, connections of the lightly-raced international have convinced punters he’s the real deal.

Tiger Moth blew out from $6.50 to $9 when the barrier draw was revealed, but the Irish raider has since bounced back into punters’ good books and is the shortest-priced favourite in the race at $6.50.

Anthony Van Dyck was the favourite for most of Sunday night and Monday morning but has pushed out to $10 and Surprise Baby is now second favourite at $7.50 — and the favourite among the Australian horses to keep the trophy Down Under.

One punter has dropped a $10,000 each-way bet on Prince Of Arran ($9.50/$3.12) with the TAB, hoping Jamie Kah can guide him to victory. Kah is hoping to become just the second female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup, five years after Michelle Payne saluted.

She’s in the form of her life, after riding four separate winners on Cox Plate Day and backing it up with another victory at Flemington on Saturday. Six-time Melbourne Cup-winning owner Lloyd Williams said: “You couldn’t find anyone riding any better in the world.”

Meanwhile, racing expert and presenter Francesca Cumani believes Tiger Moth is “impossible to ignore”.

“He will have plenty of supporters in the Cup because he has the ideal profile of being a lightly raced northern hemisphere three-year-old with a good VC and light weight (52.5kg),” she said.

He’s not among the top contenders but the other big mover in the market is Twilight Payment, who has shortened from $41 to $21 and is currently Ladbrokes’ worst result.

This is our comprehensive runner-by-runner preview followed by a predicted first four and the best betting strategy for spending $100 on the race.

1: ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE) — Barrier 3 — Jockey: Hugh Bowman — Trainer: Aidan O’Brien — Weight: 58.5kg – Odds: Win – $10 Place – $3.30

The Aidan O‘Brien-trained galloper was excellent in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start, finishing ahead off Verry Elleegant. He was giving the winner 3.5kg and had to come wide from the back after drawing barrier 17. It was an outstanding Australian debut, following a narrow victory over superstar stayer Stradivarius over 2400m in France. While it’s impossible to knock his 2400m credentials, he has never raced beyond that trip, making the two-mile journey here an obvious query.
Why he can win: Beat one of, if not the best stayer in the world in Stradivarius two-back. Served it right up to Verry Elleegant in the Caulfield Cup – a six-time G1 winner who could easily lay claim to being the best horse in Australia. Is open to further improvement second-up in Australia and has drawn nicely in barrier three.
Why he can’t win: Has never raced beyond 2400m and has to carry 58.5kg. The last horse to carry 58kg+ to Cup victory was Makybe Diva in 2005 (her third win in the Cup). The last five winners have carried 52kg, 51kg, 51.5kg, 52kg and 53kg.

2: AVILIUS (GB) — Barrier 10 — John Allen — James Cummings — 57kg – Win: $61 Place: $16

Unlucky not to finish 3rd in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start when held up at a vital stage, Avilius will be having his second Cup start here. His first go, in 2018, was a debacle – finishing 69L off the winner after being hampered at the start of the race. Since that run, the Godolphin galloper has had six starts in Victorian G1s for zero placings. We’ve never really seen the best of him in Melbourne and the prospect of a firm deck certainly hurts his chances.
Why he can win: He finished 6th in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start but probably should have finished on the heels of Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck, after getting stopped in his tracks when seemingly travelling nicely around the home turn. He boasts a 2500m win here in the 2018 Bart Cummings.
Why he can’t win: Just hasn’t measured up in G1 races in Melbourne and his best performances have come on rain-affected ground. His 2018 run in this event was clearly a forgive run, but he’s still a genuine query at 3200m.

3: VOW AND DECLARE — Barrier 4 — Jamie Mott — Danny O’Brien — 57kg – Win: $67 Place: $18

Last year’s winner rises from 52kg to 57kg, and it’s fair to say his form is nowhere near as strong as it was heading into last year’s event. He’s been unplaced in five starts since finishing 3rd in the G1 Australia Cup (2000m) here back in March, and was beaten 8.7L in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start.
Why he can win: Been here and done it, albeit with 5kg less than what he’ll carry this time. He was only 2.8L off Verry Elleegant in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) here two-back. Has drawn to either lead or take a sit just off them without doing too much early work.
Why he can’t win: Simply not going well enough. Hasn’t shown anything this campaign to suggest he can make it back-to-back Cups. He was almost 9L off Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start.

4: MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) — Barrier 11 — Ben Melham — Joseph O’Brien — 56kg – Win: $19 Place: $5.50

The Lloyd Williams-owned stayer was 2nd past the post in this race last year, before being relegated to 4th on protest. He carried 55.5kg there and only goes up half-a-kilo on that. His form since is perhaps a little misleading, finishing 11L and 8L off Twilight Payment at his first two runs this preparation when ridden uncharacteristically quiet in small fields. He was ridden in much more positive fashion last start and bolted in over 2816m at Down Royal. No doubt he’s been set for this race since he crossed the line in the 2019 Cup.
Why he can win: Ran very well in this race last year and carries basically the same weight again. His last two runs have been good and fitness certainly won’t be an issue coming off four runs over 2816m.
Why he can’t win: He was suited by the slow pace of last year’s Cup, racing on-speed before giving a strong kick in the straight. That may have been his chance given this looks a stronger Cup. While he won well last start, this is significantly harder.

5: SIR DRAGONET (IRE) — Barrier 14 — Glen Boss — Ciaron Maher & David Eustace — 55.5kg – Win: $12 Place: $3.80

A wet track and a hot early pace saw Sir Dragonet pounce in the G1 Cox Plate (2040m), scoring by 1.25L under Glen Boss. That win broke a frustrating run of outs, going under at $1.90, $2.90, $1.55, $3.75, $1.45 and $3.75. The Maher and Eustace import was well-held by Buckhurst on a dry track two-back and all three of his career wins have come on rain-affected ground. He appeared to have every chance when finishing 4th over a similar trip to this in the G1 St Leger (2922m) at Doncaster.
Why he can win: Was terrific winning the G1 Cox Plate (2040m) last start, pulling away from some handy types in Armory and Russian Camelot. There’s no reason why he can’t improve on that effort given he was first-up in Australia off a 90-day spell.
Why he can’t win: Looks a genuine wet-tracker who is unlikely to get those conditions here. His one and only start beyond 2400m was a bit plain, looming up in the St Leger (2922m) before peaking.

Sir Dragonet prefers it wet. (Scott Barbour/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

6: TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) — Barrier 12 — Jye McNeil — Joseph O’Brien — 55.5kg – Win: $26 Place: $7.50

This Joseph O’Brien-trained galloper led in last year’s Cup but weakened out to finish 11th, beaten 3.25L. His form since returning home has been good, winning the G3 Vintage Crop (2816m) before smashing Master Of Reality to the tune of 8L in the G2 Curragh Cup (2816m). He crossed the line just behind Fujaira Prince in the G1 Irish St Leger (2816m) last start, a horse who was coming off a nice win in the Ebor Handicap (2787m) – a race that has traditionally been a pretty good form reference for this.
Why he can win: His form looks better this time around. Last year he was beaten 6.25L in the G1 Irish St Leger (2816m), this year he finished 3rd, beaten 2.4L. He had things go his way two-back but it was still an impressive effort to beat Master Of Reality by 8L.
Why he can’t win: He started 40-1 in this race last year and was well-beaten. While his form this campaign has been good, has he improved enough in 12 months – as an 8YO – to threaten here? Prince Of Arran thrashed him by 10L when the two clashed over 3017m at Riyadh earlier this year.

7: VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) — Barrier 15 — Mark Zahra — Chris Waller — 55.5kg – Win: $12 Place: $3.80

What a star this mare is! Her last-start Caulfield Cup (2400m) win was her third G1 this preparation and her sixth overall. She took the Caulfield home bend a bit awkwardly and was there to be beaten by top-class international Anthony Van Dyck but dug deep when it counted. The way she found a late effort suggests she can handle the extra distance here, and the Caulfield Cup has always been a great guide for this event. She covered extra ground in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) here two-back but was still too strong for her rivals.
Why she can win: Her form is incredibly hard to fault, with her only miss this preparation coming in the G1 George Main Stakes (1600m) when pretty luckless. She only got a half-kilo penalty for her Caulfield Cup win, meaning she still has a significant weight advantage on Anthony Van Dyck.
Why she can’t win: She won on a Good 3 here two-back but is clearly at her best on rain-affected ground. The forecast doesn’t look favourable for her and while she races far more tractable these days than she did early in her career, the Waller mare still does a few things wrong. If she over-races like she did here in the VRC Oaks (2500m), she won’t be able to run out a strong two miles.

8: MUSTAJEER (GB) — Barrier 2 — Michael Rodd — Kris Lees — 55kg – Win: $101 Place: $26

The Australian Bloodstock stayer started $19 in this race last year but beat just one runner home, finishing 10.85L from the winner. He has mixed his form since, with his best runs coming on wet tracks in Sydney. He was OK in the G1 Metrop (2400m) two-back, before working home fairly in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) for 8th, beaten 3.9L. Others here were better than him in that, but he did clock the equal-4th fastest final 200m. A really dry track doesn’t help here though.
Why he can win: Has an Ebor win to his name, albeit in 2019. Had little luck in the G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) over this distance when hampered at the top of the straight.
Why he can’t win: Was poor in this race last year coming off an Ebor win and a good run in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m). His form this time around is average at best, with a last-start 8th his highest placing in four runs this preparation.

9: STRATUM ALBION (GB) — Barrier 9 — Jordan Childs — Willie Mullins — 55kg – Win: $41 Place: $10

Willie Mullins trains this 8YO who is coming off a 0.8L 2nd to gun stayer Enbihaar in the G2 Lonsdale Cup (3270m) last start. His form prior – unplaced in three hurdle starts – doesn’t exactly read well for this, however he did take out the Cesarewitch (3621m) on the flat at Newmarket five starts back. Mullins has had success in this race, without winning, and this galloper will stay all day. A genuine staying test, unlike last year, would aid his cause.
Why he can win: His last-start 2nd to Enbihaar is great form when you look at Enbihaar‘s record around this distance range. If he can repeat that effort, he can’t be ruled out. He’ll be stronger than most at the end of 3200m … it’s just whether he can go with them when the pace ramps up.
Why he can’t win: Too dour. Three of his last four starts have been over hurdles and the track may be too firm for him. An 8YO with 55kg isn‘t a great recipe for Melbourne Cup success.

10: DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB) — Barrier 19 — Michael Walker — Andrew Balding — 54.5kg – Win: $71 Place: $19

This Balding-trained raider lived up to his name in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), dashing out to lead from barrier one. Unfortunately he was a spent force well before the home turn, knocking up horribly to be beaten 27.2L. A post-race veterinary examination didn’t reveal any abnormalities, so you couldn’t possibly recommend him here based on that effort. His previous form was OK, but Stratum Albion did have his measure over this trip two-back.
Why he can win: Won well over this distance at G3 level three-back and wasn’t disgraced behind the high-class Enbihaar before coming to Australia.
Why he can’t win: Was deadset hopeless in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) and couldn’t possibly win based on that effort.

Can Finche find the front? (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

11: FINCHE (GB) — Barrier 6 — James McDonald — Chris Waller — 54.5kg – Win: $19 Place: $5.50

The Waller import ran well in this race in 2018, finishing just behind the placegetters in 4th. His effort last year was also solid, finishing 1.4L off Vow And Declare in a real bunched finish. Whether he can actually improve enough to be a winning chance remains to be seen, but his form this campaign has certainly been encouraging. He was just 0.2L off Verry Elleegant in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) two-back, before battling on well for 5th in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) after a tough run in transit. He’s drawn perfectly here in barrier six, so there shouldn’t be too many excuses.
Why he can win: He’s performed well in this race previously and gets in relatively light again with 54.5kg. He basically crossed the line with Verry Elleegant in the G1 Turnbull (2000m) two-back before having no luck behind that galloper last start.
Why he can’t win: He often runs well without winning and the fact remains that his only win in 10 starts in Australia came in the G3 Kingston Town (2000m) last year. He’s an honest trier but he doesn’t have the real X-factor of a few of these.

12: PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) — Barrier 1 — Jamie Kah — Charlie Fellowes — 54.5kg – Win: $9.50 Place: $3.10

What a marvel this horse has been in Australia over the journey! The Fellowes-trained 8YO finished 3rd in this race in 2018 and 2nd last year on protest. He also boasts wins in the G3 Hotham (2500m) and G3 Geelong Cup (2400m), and was 4th in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start after passing the 400m in 15th. That was a perfect Cup trial and he only rises half-a-kilo from last year. He’s not getting any younger but he just becomes a different horse down here and Fellowes has every right to be confident.
Why he can win: Loves it Down Under – just never runs a bad race. He was the only runner in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) to break 12 seconds for the final furlong, running home quicker than Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck. He was desperately close to winning this race last year and is going just as well, if not better.
Why he can’t win: His form has been good but he hasn’t won since last year’s G3 Geelong Cup (2400m). As an 8YO, history is well and truly against him.

13: SURPRISE BABY (NZ) — Barrier 7 — Craig Williams — Paul Preusker — 54.5kg – Win: $7.50 Place: $2.60

Surprise Baby certainly hasn‘t been overtaxed this preparation, stepping out only twice for a 2nd in the G2 Feehan Stakes (1600m) and a 9th in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) when fairly luckless. Preusker stated earlier this spring that he would’ve been happy to run Surprise Baby first-up in the Cup, so you’d have to think he’s been piling plenty of miles into the gelding’s legs at home. The lightly-raced 6YO was excellent in this event last year when forced to settle a mile back from barrier 20. He’ll carry only 1kg more here and you’d have to think he’s improved, even though he’s only raced on two occasions since.
Why he can win: He was basically beaten by the barrier in this race last year, coming from 18th at the 400m to finish less than a length off the winner. His first-up effort in the G2 Feehan Stakes (1600m) was great from a Cup perspective, while he wasn’t given much hope last start after settling well back on the fence. He’s clearly been set for this, bypassing both the Caulfield Cup (2400m) and the Cox Plate (2040m).
Why he can’t win: Is two runs, over 1600m and 2000m, enough? If it’s a genuine staying test and he has to make a long run, there is a chance his lack of race fitness could be a factor. For all the hype, he’s still just a G2 Adelaide Cup (3200m) winner that is yet to place at the top level.

14: KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR) — Barrier 18 — Damian Lane — Danny O’Brien — 53.5kg – LATE SCRATCHING

King of Leogrance pulled up lame on the morning of the race and was a late scratching.

15: RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) — Barrier 16 — Damien Oliver — Danny O’Brien — 53.5kg – Win: $13 Place: $4

Sent out a $3.50 favourite in the G1 Cox Plate (2040m), Russian Camelot travelled up on the speed before fading late for 3rd, beaten 2L. It wasn’t a performance that screamed “3200m next start”, but perhaps he needs to be ridden quieter – as he was when winning the G1 SA Derby (2500m) by 1.9L. The O’Brien entire drops down to 53.5kg for this and was a dominant winner of his only career start beyond 2400m. O’Brien knows what it takes to win this race.
Why he can win: Some were disappointed with his G1 Cox Plate (2040m) run, but he still finished 3rd. Green Moon finished 7th as a $5F in the 2012 Cox Plate, before turning that around with victory in the Melbourne Cup at his next start, carrying 53.5kg. His win in the G1 SA Derby (2500m) was a powerful staying performance.
Why he can’t win: He loomed ominously in the Cox Plate (2040m) but didn’t really finish off. On that, the extra 1160m is a worry – but this race will obviously be run at a different tempo to the Cox Plate. Rumours of his potential scratching from the Cup saw his price blow out, before coming back in. If he’s not 100 per cent (money often talks), he won’t be winning this.

Russian Camelot has Damien Oliver on board. (Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

16: STEEL PRINCE (IRE) — Barrier 21 — Willie Pike — Anthony & Sam Freedman — 53.5kg – Win: $41 Place: $10

The Freedman gelding had a massive 2019, winning five on the bounce, including a narrow victory over Surprise Baby in the Listed Andrew Ramsden (2800m) at this track. Unfortunately he lost his way a little at the business end, finishing worse than midfield in the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) before whacking away for 9th in the Cup. He has built nicely into the Cup this year, improving with each run and showing real fight to hold Le Don De Vie at bay in the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) last start.
Why he can win: Has form around Surprise Baby, who is considered one of the leading hopes in this. Won what looked a pretty strong Geelong Cup (2400m) last start and hasn’t really put a foot wrong this campaign following an average fresh run that he clearly needed.
Why he can’t win: Finished 9th in this race last year and goes up 1kg. Barrier 21 means he’s likely to be spotting some pretty good stayers a big start.

17: THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) — Barrier 5 — Daniel Stackhouse — Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman — 53.5kg – Win: $34 Place: $8.50

He’s a real enigma this Baker and Forsman galloper. He looked set for a huge spring when he dashed home to win impressively over 1700m here on resumption, but was poor at his next two outings (although he did cover additional ground in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes). Sent out at huge odds in the G1 Caulfield Cup, he ran the race of his life for 3rd behind a couple of genuine top-liners in Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck. A repeat of that would see him prove competitive, but he could easily bomb given his Jekyll and Hyde nature.
Why he can win: He was excellent in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), actually looming as a genuine winning hope in the straight. He also won well here first-up with 61.5kg.
Why he can’t win: Often follows a good run with a stinker. He never looked likely in last year’s Cup, finishing 17th after settling in the last few.

18: ASHRUN (FR) — Barrier 24 — Declan Bates — Andreas Wohler — 53kg – Win: $21 Place: $6

Purchased by Australian Bloodstock (of Protectionist fame) to compete in this race, Ashrun has had to do it the hard way to actually make the field. He tried to win his way into the race via the Geelong Cup (2400m) but was forced to sustain a long, wide run while the placegetters had it softer. Andreas Wohler then sent him to Saturday‘s G3 Hotham Handicap (2500m) and he produced a terrific staying effort to grind home from last with 61kg. It would be a huge effort to win the Cup given he’s had a couple of tough runs in a short amount of time, but his quality is obvious.
Why he can win: Carried 61kg to win the G3 Hotham and drops down to 53kg for this. His European form in this distance range is excellent and he’ll run the 3200m right out. Australian Bloodstock know exactly what it takes to win this race.
Why he can’t win: Covered ground in the Geelong Cup (2400m) on a bone-dry track and then had to come from last in a slowly-run Hotham (2500m) – it hasn’t been an easy road to the Cup for him. Shocking was the last horse to complete the Hotham/Cup double in 2009 and there have been some abject failures since. Barrier 24 is obviously far from ideal also.

19: WARNING — Barrier 8 — Luke Currie — Anthony & Sam Freedman — 53kg – Win: $41 Place: $10

Last year’s G1 Victoria Derby (2500m) winner has only placed in two of his nine starts since, both in Adelaide. His effort in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) two-back was quite good though, hitting the line solidly for 6th, beaten 1L. He got back from a wide gate in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start but made no impression, getting past some slow ones late to finish 5.2L off Verry Elleegant. On that performance, he’s no hope, but he’ll definitely appreciate being back at Flemington.
Why he can win: Won the G1 Victoria Derby (2500m) here last year. Was only a length off Verry Elleegant two-back in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) when doing his best work late. Caulfield isn’t a great track for him, so you can probably forgive his last-start showing.
Why he can’t win: Hasn’t won since the Derby. Russian Camelot was a mile too good for him in the G1 SA Derby (2500m), so it’s hard to see him turning the tables on that galloper. His Caulfield Cup run was forgivable, but others put in much, much better Cup trials there.

20: ETAH JAMES (NZ) — Barrier 22 — Billy Egan — Ciaron Maher & David Eustace — 52.5kg – Win: $101 Place: $26

This well-travelled mare caused somewhat of an upset when taking out the G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) back in April. Some jostling between a couple of her more-fancied rivals certainly helped her cause, but it was a nice staying performance in testing conditions. She’s only had two starts since, finishing well back in the G1 Metrop (2400m) before working home nicely for 4th in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) last start. That was a solid effort but this is tougher and she probably needs it wet at this stage of her career.
Why she can win: Won this year’s G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) and caught the eye late over 2500m last start, suggesting the rise in trip third-up is ideal.
Why she can’t win: Not good enough. The Sydney Cup (3200m) is a few rungs down from this and it was on a Heavy 8 deck. Both Sound and Platinum Invador beat her home in the Auckland Cup over this distance prior.

21: TIGER MOTH (IRE) — Barrier 23 — Kerrin McEvoy — Aidan O’Brien — 52.5kg – Win: $6.50 Place: $2.40

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Tiger Moth profiles very similarly to 2017 Cup winner Rekindling who carried 51.5kg to victory. Rekindling had raced less than 10 times and had finished close-up in the G1 St Leger (2921m) at Doncaster prior to coming to Australia. Tiger Moth has had just four starts and was 2nd in the G1 Irish Derby (2414m) two starts ago. A narrow defeat there was followed by a brilliant 4L victory in the G2 Kilternan Stakes (2414m) on September 12. By Galileo, trained by the master Aidan O’Brien, it’s safe to assume he’ll see out the 3200m journey.
Why he can win: As mentioned above, he has a real Rekindling feel to him and is in that sweet spot weight-wise (the last five Cup winners have carried between 51kg and 53kg). His run in the G1 Irish Derby (2414m) was excellent behind a smart one in Santiago and he was utterly dominant winning over the same trip last start.
Why he can’t win: Has only had four career starts so is still learning the craft. He was a brilliant winner last start but Buckhurst (5th in that race) has hardly franked the form since coming to Australia. The barrier draw has not been kind to him, coming up with gate 23.

Were Tiger Moth's chances ruined by the barrier draw? (Reg Ryan/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

22: OCEANEX (NZ) — Barrier 17 — Dean Yendall — Mick Price & Michael Kent — 51.5kg – Win: $81 Place: $19

The Price and Kent-trained mare won her way into this race via the Listed Andrew Ramsden (2800m) here back in May. She has only placed once in four runs since, and that was last start in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m). She was sound there, working home fairly for 3rd, but was still 3L off the winner Miami Bound. It was undoubtedly an improved effort fourth-up, but she needs to lift again to figure here.
Why she can win: Showed nice improvement last start, so is trending the right way for this. Was impressive winning the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m here back in May and also won the G2 Matriarch Stakes (2000m) at this track.
Why she can’t win: She’d showed nothing in three starts this campaign before her 3rd-placing last start. Others are coming out of much stronger races than the Moonee Valley Cup (2500m). She may need a bit more give in the ground.

23: MIAMI BOUND (NZ) — Barrier 13 — Daniel Moor — Danny O’Brien — 51kg – Win: $34 Place: $8.50

A dominant winner of the G1 VRC Oaks (2500m) last year, Miami Bound has certainly mixed her form since. She was really disappointing in a two-start summer/autumn preparation and was immediately tipped back out for a break. The O’Brien mare failed to place in her first four starts this campaign – copping a nasty check when beaten 58.4L in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) – before bouncing back to her best in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) last start. The Soft 7 track was clearly the key there, but she’s unlikely to strike those conditions again here.
Why she can win: Obliterated her rivals to win the G1 Oaks (2500m) here last spring by 3.25L. Was a dominant winner of the G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) last start, coming from 8th at the 400m to draw away for a 2.5L win.
Why she can’t win: Her efforts on dry tracks since the Oaks have been incredibly underwhelming. She was plain in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) two-back, and with the exception of The Chosen One, the form out of that race has been poor.

24: PERSAN — Barrier 20 — Michael Dee — Ciaron Maher & David Eustace — 51kg – Win: $34 Place: $8.50

He’s been an absolute revelation this campaign, Persan. The Maher and Eustace entire won a Bendigo maiden over 1600m in May, and now finds himself in the Melbourne Cup. He clearly loves it at Flemington, winning three-on-end here in June/July from 2000m to 2500m, before taking out the G3 Bart Cummings (2510m) last start. Almandin won the Bart Cummings in 2016 before going on to claim the Cup.
Why he can win: Can go forward or back in his races and possesses a genuine will to win. Has no weight on his back and is rock-hard fit. The Bart Cummings can be a decent guide, with Surprise Baby running a terrific 5th in the Cup last year (beaten 0.9L) after winning the BC.
Why he can’t win: It might be a bridge too far for a horse who was still a maiden when he resumed back in April. He’s been in work for a long time and now needs to step up in class and distance again, having his 11th start for the campaign. It’s a big ask.

VERDICT
The barrier draw has certainly changed the complexion of this race, with Tiger Moth and Ashrun drawing barriers 23 and 24 respectively. After plenty of deliberation, I’ve narrowed the winning chances (in saddlecloth order) down to Anthony Van Dyck (1), Master Of Reality (4), Verry Elleegant (7), Prince Of Arran (12), Surprise Baby (13), Russian Camelot (15), Steel Prince (16) and Tiger Moth (21). Now to narrow that down further to the top four hopes.
13. Surprise Baby
12. Prince Of Arran
21. Tiger Moth
1. Anthony Van Dyck
$100 BETTING STRATEGY
$60 on Surprise Baby (13) at $9
$40 on Prince Of Arran (12) at $10

This article was originally published by punters.com.au and reproduced with permission