Melbourne Cup Day: Form guide, tips for every race at Flemington
One of the biggest days on Australia’s sporting calendar is almost here and there are plenty more races than just the Melbourne Cup.
Melbourne Cup day is always a test for punters, with big fields and formlines all over the shop.
The first of 10 races is set to jump nice and early at 10:45am (AEDT), on what is likely to be a Good 4 track.
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The rail comes out 2m after being in the true position on Saturday (when the track raced incredibly well).
You can check out our ultimate runner-by-runner form guide and analysis for the Melbourne Cup here, while the experts at punters.com.au have also got every other race at Flemington on Tuesday covered with their tips and best bets below.
Race one (10.45am) — Darley Maribyrnong Plate (1000m)
Plenty of debutants doing battle down the straight here, so the map is far from clear-cut. Brereton showed a bit of early toe on debut.
There was very little between Brereton (1) and Renosu (3) in the Debutant Stakes (1000m) at Caulfield last start and both should be better for the experience - although the straight is a different beast. Renosu was probably the better run, closing strongly from the rear of the field.
Most of the debutants have shown some ability but Water Bomber (10) looked quite smart winning a trial at Moe, even though it was only over 670m.
The market could tell the story here.
VERDICT: Happy to stay out here but if you’re really keen for a punt,Renosu (3) is on top.
Race two (11.20am) — The Macca’s Run (2800m)
Decent speed here for a 2000m race, with Think We’re Due, Wil John, Good Idea and Skymax all capable of landing in front. Shepard will probably take a sit just off the speed.
Wil John (8) proved last start that he’s more than just a very good jumper, outgunning his handy stablemate Smokin’ Romansover 2400m at Caulfield. The runner-up has since finished a 0.1L 2nd in the G2 Bendigo Cup (2400m), so the form looks solid. He stays down in the weights and will relish the rise to 2800m.
Accountability (10) finished 3rd in the race won by Wil Johnlast start, coming from 8th at the 400m. He was 32 days between runs so you’d think he’ll strip fitter for this longer affair.
Savvy Valentino (4) is racing in fine form, working home strongly for 2nd behind Torrens in the Listed Tatts Cup (2400m) last start. He put a gap on the rest in a race where they came home at long intervals.
Team Captain (6) has won his last couple of starts at Swan Hill and Hamilton, comfortably beating the very consistent Kings Full last start.
VERDICT: Wil John (8) to win again.
Race three (12pm) — Subzero Handicap (1400m)
Naval Envoy, Caffrey and Tycoon Raff will probably dispute the early lead here in the all-greys race. Housay and Mr Tipla map well forward of midfield.
Standoff (7) is hard to catch but she does seem to reserve her best for this track. Both of her career wins have come here and the latest was a dominant swooping victory over this distance. She’ll get back but the tempo looks genuine and $17 appeals in an open race.
Housay (3) resumes having placed in 6 of his 7 career starts. He was last seen winning over 1200m here almost 300 days ago, but 1400m remains a bit of a query given he finished 4th in this event last year when afforded every chance.
Mr Tipla (2) has won at this track/distance and only just missed out in this event last year. He hasn’t threatened in his two runs this campaign (had excuses last start) but you get the feeling he’s been set for this third-up.
Excelman (4) doesn’t appear well-drawn in barrier one but he does have ability on his day and was only just edged out when resuming over 1500m last campaign.
VERDICT: Standoff (7) worth a bet at $17. BEST VALUE
Race four (12.40pm) — Furphy Plate (1800m)
Milton Park and Lord Vladivostok should settle in the first few. Saltpeter may roll forward also from the outside gate. Best Of Days and Groovy Kinda Love won’t be far from the action.
Groovy Kinda Love (9) maps for a lovely run in transit and will be full of confidence after romping home by 3.5L over 1600m at Ballarat last start. Both of her runs back from a break have been good and she’s still improving, whereas many of these have probably hit their mark.
Lord Vladivostok (7) is a very consistent on-pacer who was only 0.6L off Regalo Di Gaetano in the Murray Bridge Cup (1600m) last start. The winner scored again at Listed level on Saturday and is airborne at the moment.
Best Of Days (1) is well past his best but this is the easiest race he’s contested for a long time. He has 60kg but he’s drawn for a soft run and he is a G1 winner over the mile here (2018 Cantala).
Charleise (4) was sound at G3 level last start and has had three runs under Jye McNeil for a win and a 2nd.
VERDICT: Groovy Kinda Love (9) each-way.
Race five (1.20pm) — Grinders Coffee Roasters Trophy (1400m)
Holbien and Pindaric will roll forward here, with Ocean Beyond potentially following them across. Fender won’t be far away from barrier two.
Frankie Pinot (11) is racing very well at the moment, placing in his last 6 starts. He charged home for 2nd behind the in-form Sirileo Miss over this trip two-back, before again flying from the tail to finish 0.5L off Agreeable last start. He should find Flemington very much to his liking.
Crestani (12) has won 2 of his last 3 and was very good in the miss when covering extra ground from a bad gate at Caulfield. He’ll stalk the speed from barrier one and will be hard to hold out if the gaps open up for Moloney.
Waller and McDonald had a big day here on Saturday and they combine with Sydney visitor Blondeau (4) in this. He was 4th in the Silver Eagle (1300m) last start, just behind Count De Rupee who really made gun galloper I’m Thunderstruck work to beat him in the Golden Eagle (1500m) on Saturday.
Pindaric (7) has won 6 from 7 and makes his own luck on-speed.
VERDICT: Backing both Frankie Pinot (11) and Crestani (12).
Race six (1.55pm) — Schweppervescence Plate (1000m)
Profiteer and Enthaar will dispute the early lead in this straight-course drag. Super Thief, Direct and Corvino are also speedy beginners.
Fascinating match-up here between two very fast horses in Profiteer (4) and Enthaar. Neither are blessed with great stamina but Profiteer boasts an 1100m win here in a sizzling 1:02.8, while Enthaar is 2 from 2 over 1000m, almost breaking 57 seconds in the G3 Gimcrack. Having raced down the straight before, I have a slight lean to Profiteer who also has race fitness on his side (not that that’s a huge factor over this journey).
Enthaar (4) has had her issues but she’s a rocket over 1000m when right.
Super Thief (8) has won his last couple in impressive fashion, beating Canadian Gold last start who has since run well.
Magic Max (2) produced a much-improved performance at Morphettville last start and could be getting back to the good form he showed in his first preparation.
VERDICT: Profiteer (4) should prove hard to catch over this distance.
Race seven (3pm) — Melbourne Cup (3200m)
This is the big one, You can check out our detailed, runner-by-runner form guide and analysis of the Melbourne Cup here.
Race eight — The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m)
La Mexicana and Best Stone will probably set the pace from out wide. Aidensfield, Belle Plaisir and Paul’s Regret should be reasonably handy.
Promise Of Success (11) was mighty impressive booming home to score over this trip at Randwick last start and she should appreciate this circuit. It’s hard to see her going backwards fourth-up and McDonald hopping aboard is an obvious positive.
La Mexicana (1) will find this easier than the G1 Manikato (1200m) where she was just never in the race after getting back from a wide draw. That was only the third time in 14 starts that she has missed a place.
April Rain (10) bumped into the smart Quantico at Rosehill last start but she beat 3rd comfortably. She’s not a great beginner so barrier two could be problematic but McEvoy should be able to find clear running in a race that shapes as being run at a genuine tempo.
Rich Hips (2) produced a massive effort to win this race last year. She’s failed to place in any of her last six starts but has gone around in some hot races.
VERDICT: Promise Of Success (11) for the win.
Race nine — TAB Trophy (1800m)
Zoumon looks the leader from barrier two. Samarkand and In The Darkness will likely roll forward from out wide. Station One and Blushing Tycoon should be handy.
Prebble has produced some cracking rides this spring but his steer on Maracana (14) last start wasn’t one of them. The O’Brien filly drew out but was just never in a winning position and actually did a good job to finish as close as she did in 3rd. Her two wins prior were excellent and she shouldn’t have too many issues with the distance rise.
Spirit Of Gaylard (6) would be on top if the race was over 2000m+, but the drop back from 2040m is a little query. He was very good running home for 5th in the G2 Vase last start at just his third career start.
Zoumon (4) will likely lead and could be hard to run down if the track is favouring the on-pacers in earlier races. All of his runs have been on rain-affected ground though.
Sebastian The Fox (5) was okay last start and has drawn well.
VERDICT: Maracana (14) for the win.
Race 10 — MSS Security Sprint (1200m)
Speed from Prime Candidate, Night Raid and Sirius Suspect. Curran should be handy.
This looks a really nice race for Curran (10). He was a narrow but impressive winner first-up over 955m, before just being left a bit flat-footed in the G2 Caulfield Sprint (1000m) last start when 3rd behind Oxley Road. The rise to 1200m is perfect third-up and his two previous straight-course runs have been good. Cartwright has options from barrier 11.
Quantico (14) is a talent but barrier one might not be the best gate here. First go down the straight is always a big query too but he’s flying.
Pandemic (6) is racing well without winning. Lombardo was too good for him last start but he finished clear of the rest and the time was solid.
Express Pass (5) was outclassed in the G1 Manikato (1200m) last start but wasn’t far away in the G2 Bobbie Lewis at this track/distance prior.
VERDICT: Like Curran (10) here at $4. BEST BET
This article first appeared on punters.com.au and was reproduced with permission
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