Melbourne Cup 2019: Likely field, favourites
It’s never too early to start researching who to back in the Melbourne Cup. These are the 24 horses most likely to get a run.
There’s less than two weeks until the running of the $8 million Melbourne Cup and the battle is on in earnest for a coveted spot in the 24-horse field.
Constantinople is the favourite for the race that stops a nation at $7 after his fourth-placed finish in the Caulfield Cup despite a ride from jockey Luke Nolen that cost him the opportunity to be on board at Flemington.
Mer De Glace vaulted to the top of the Order of Entry with his impressive win. He occupies top spot with the two other horses to have claimed wins in ballot-exemption races: Surprise Baby (The Bart Cummings) and Steel Prince (Andrew Ramsden Stakes).
There are two remaining win-and-you’re-in races: the Cox Plate and the Lexus Stakes on Derby Day.
There are five horses in the Cox Plate who hold Melbourne Cup entries, but four of them are already assured of a start over the Flemington 3200m should their connections decide to contest.
Avilius is currently fifth in the Order of Entry and Homesman seventh, while Magic Wand and Very Elleegant are 18th and 19th respectively.
Should Kings Will Dream claim the Cox Plate he will move from his current position of 36th to the top of the order.
It’s worth noting the Cox Plate winner is not liable for a Melbourne Cup penalty. The last horse to win both races was Makybe Diva in 2005.
Nine of the 10 horses engaged in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup hold nominations for the Melbourne Cup, with Hunting Horn (20th) the only one that is guaranteed a spot in the field.
Mr Quickie (25th) and Shraaoh (27th) are on the cusp of gaining a start and would be assured of a run with a 0.5kg penalty for winning Saturday’s race, while Downdraft (35) would need 1kg.
Etymology (47), Sully (51), Alfarris (58) and Top Of the Range (53) need big penalties, while Humidor is currently 56th but would pass the ballot clause for qualification for the Melbourne Cup with a win in the Gold Cup. Given he is allotted 56kg for the Melbourne Cup, he would be propelled up to eighth to contest the race for a second time.
PREDICTED MELBOURNE CUP FIELD
1. MER DE GLACE Hisashi Shimizu 56kg (including 1kg penalty)
2. SURPRISE BABY Paul Preusker 53.5kg (1kg penalty)
3. STEEL PRINCE Anthony Freedman 52.5kg
4. CROSS COUNTER Charlie Appleby 57.5kg
5. MARMELO Hughie Morrison 56kg
6. MIRAGE DANCER Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young 55.5kg
7. SOUTHERN FRANCE Ciaron Maher & David Eustace 55.5kg
8. CONSTANTINOPLE David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 52.5kg
9. MASTER OF REALITY Joseph O’Brien 55.5kg
10. IL PARADISO Aidan O’Brien 52.5kg
11. LATROBE Joseph O’Brien 55kg
12. ANGEL OF TRUTH Gwenda Markwell 53.5kg
13. MUSTAJEER Kris Lees 55kg
14. ROSTROPOVICH David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 55kg
15. ISPOLINI Charlie Appleby 55kg
16. VERRY ELLEEGANT Chris Waller 52kg
17. MAGIC WAND Aidan O’Brien 53.5kg
18. HUNTING HORN Aidan O’Brien 55kg
19. TWILIGHT PAYMENT Joseph O’Brien 55kg
20. PRINCE OF ARRAN Charlie Fellowes 54kg (1kg penalty)
21. FINCHE Chris Waller 54kg
22. RAYMOND TUSK Richard Hannon 54kg
23. SHRAAOH Chris Waller 53.5kg
24. VOW AND DECLARE Danny O’Brien 52kg
This article was originally published by punters.com.au and reproduced with permission
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