Golden Eagle 2019: Runner-by-runner guide to $7.5m race
A terrific field has assembled for the inaugural Golden Eagle but Winx trainer Chris Waller thinks the punters may have erred slightly.
Punters have crowned Arcadia Queen favourite but Chris Waller is adamant stablemate Kolding is every bit as good a chance for the inaugural Golden Eagle.
The champion Sydney trainer will saddle up the Group One-winning duo in the new $7.5 million showpiece exclusively for four-year-olds at Rosehill.
Punters have backed Arcadia Queen from $4.20 to $2.90 since Tuesday with Kolding firming form $6.50 to $5 but Waller is having an each-way bet.
“I can’t separate them,” he said. “The betting would suggest Arcadia Queen is the better chance but my eye would say that Kolding is a very good horse.”
Where the two differ is along distance lines in their Golden Eagle lead-ups. Arcadia Queen is stepping up to the 1500m after beating only one home last start in the Everest (1200m), while Kolding drops back from the 1600m of his Epsom Handicap win on October 5.
Punters.com.au Sydney form analyst Nick Hluchaniuk has rated the chances of every runner in the race — and given his verdict on who to back.
1. Brutal (NZ) (17) Jockey: Tommy Berry (57.5kg)
Why he can win: He’s a class runner. He finished runner-up to Winx over this track and distance as a three-year-old before winning the Doncaster. He’s returned in good form this preparation, winning the Premiere Stakes before running a close-up third in the Sydney Stakes where he was always going to be vulnerable staying at 1200m.
Why he can’t: The draw is a major blow and a lot will have to go right from barrier 17.
2. Classique Legend (AUS) (1) Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy (57.5kg)
Why he can win: Only bad luck prevented him from finishing a lot closer in The Everest, having been held-up for a run between the 300m to the 100m before finishing sixth, 2.5L off Yes Yes Yes. We are yet to see the best of him this preparation, after striking soft tracks in his first two starts.
Why he can’t: The stable are confident the distance won’t pose an issue, but this is his first crack beyond 1250m.
3. Kolding (NZ) (4) Jockey: Glen Boss (57.5kg)
Why he can win: He’s going to be strong late, having won the Queensland Guineas and the Epsom Handicap over a mile. The Epsom form looks outstanding now, with Te Akau Shark running a bottler of a race in the Cox Plate. From barrier 4 he’s not going to spend any petrol tickets in the run and should settle in the first half-dozen.
Why he can’t: He got in beautifully at the weights in the Epsom with only 50.5kg on his back and now meets some top gallopers at equal weights under Quality conditions.
4. The Inevitable (AUS) (3) Jockey: Nash Rawiller (57.5kg)
Why he can win: The Tasmanian galloper has been in sensational form this preparation, winning three from three including the Silver Eagle last time out. The son of Dundeel looks even better placed here, getting out to 1500m after competing over the sprint trips. He’s another runner who fared well at the barrier draw, coming up with gate 3.
Why he can’t: This is the biggest test of his career to date and he’ll need to improve once again to be winning here.
5. Gem Song (AUS) (9) Jockey: Brenton Avdulla (57.5kg)
Why he can win: He’s been competitive in some good races this preparation including coming from last to grab third in the Theo Marks behind Arcadia Queen and finishing fourth behind Kolding in the Epsom, conceding the winner 1.5kg.
Why he can’t: While he’s been competitive, he looks a couple of lengths off some of the leading contenders here based on what he’s produced so far.
6. Behemoth (AUS) (8) Jockey: Todd Pannell (57.5kg)
Why he can win: He settled last from the outside draw after bombing the start in the Silver Eagle, but worked home solidly down the outside. He won’t have to get so far back this time from a middle draw.
Why he can’t: He appears to be a level below the leading contenders in the race.
7. Military Zone (AUS) (13) Jockey: Andrew Adkins (57.5kg)
Why he can win: He wasn’t too far off them in the Silver Eagle. He was outsprinted at the top of the straight, but found the line well for fifth, beaten 2.3L.
Why he can’t: He got a beautiful run in transit in the Silver Eagle and Andrew Adkins has a slightly awkward draw to contend with this time out in barrier 13.
8. Jonker (AUS) (2) Jockey: Robbie Dolan (57.5kg)
Why he can win: The dam side suggests a step-up in trip could be a positive for Jonker, who has been kept to the sprint trips so far in his career. He received a bit of interference last start in the Sydney Stakes from the inside draw. His best run was in the autumn when he was only 1.3L off Classique Legend in the Arrowfield.
Why he can’t: He’s been a couple of lengths off the top horses and he hasn’t won since second start of his career, which was almost two years ago.
9. Fun Fact (AUS) (10) Jockey: Brandon Lerena (57.5kg)
Why he can win: He comes into the race first-up and perhaps he has grown an extra leg during his time in the paddock.
Why he can’t: It’s unlikely he’s grown an extra leg and thus looks completely outclassed here.
10. Beat Le Bon (FR) (15) Jockey: Pat Dobbs (56.5kg)
Why he can win: He was in good form during the UK summer, stringing together three straight wins before progressing to G2 level at Goodwood.
Why he can’t: He was well held in the G2 Celebration Mile Stakes, finishing fifth of six, in what was his first crack at Group level.
11. Never No More (IRE) (7) Jockey: Pierre-Charles Boudot (56.5kg)
Why he can win: He comes from the right stable in Aidan O’Brien’s Ballydoyle. He went to the US for the G1 Secretariat after a win in the 2000 Guineas Trial, finishing fifth. He then ran second at G2 level back in the UK. He certainly looks the pick of the internationals.
Why he can’t: The form around him doesn’t look particularly strong, with Sir Dancealot, who beat him last start at Doncaster, finishing well back at G1 level at his subsequent start.
12. I Am Superman (IRE) (14) Jockey: Leigh Roche (56.5kg)
Why he can win: He heads to Australia in solid form, winning two-back at Naas before a decent performance at G3 level behind a handy one in Madhmoon.
Why he can’t: He looks tested at this level. He was sent around at big odds when stepping up to G1 level in the Irish 2000 Guineas earlier this year and finished back in sixth.
13. Sunlight (AUS) (16) Jockey: Luke Currie (55.5kg)
Why she can win: She’s a multiple G1-winning mare, including upsetting the stallions in the Coolmore Stud Stakes last year and winning the Newmarket and the William Reid in the autumn. While she was well beaten in The Everest, she did finish one spot in front of favourite Arcadia Queen.
Why she can’t: The step-up to 1500m is a massive query with her and drawing out in barrier 16 hasn’t helped the situation.
14. Arcadia Queen (AUS) (5) Jockey: James McDonald (55.5kg)
Why she can win: She’s a winner of six of her eight starts and excelled when she stepped up in trip during last year’s Perth carnival, winning the WA Guineas by 3L before spanking the older horses in the G1 Kingston Town Classic over 1800m. She was disappointing in The Everest, but it was a fast-run 1200m (1.30 seconds quicker than the Sydney Stakes on the card) and interference in the straight exacerbated her woes.
Why she can’t: She is coming off a performance that was well below market expectations having enjoyed a good run in transit.
15. Mizzy (AUS) (6) Jockey: Jason Collett (55.5kg)
Why she can win: She’s proven she’s one of the better mares going around and won three straight races to start the campaign. She wasn’t far away in the Silver Eagle, finishing third, beaten under 2L.
Why she can’t: She had every opportunity to win the Silver Eagle after a top ride by Tim Clark, but fell a couple of lengths short.
16. Fasika (AUS) (11) Jockey: Rachel King (55.5kg)
Why she can win: She’s still on the up, with just the five runs under her belt. She’s won three of five and her two defeats have been by 0.2L. She was caught three-wide when second to Mizzy in the Sheraco before finishing close-up to The Inevitable in the Silver Eagle.
Why she can’t: She wasn’t far away in the Silver Eagle, but this is a tougher assignment. The draw looks awkward for her and she may be left posted deep from barrier 11.
VERDICT
It’s a terrific field for the inaugural Golden Eagle. Initial reaction to Arcadia Queen’s (15) run in The Everest was that of disappointment, but it was a hot-run 1200m, with Yes Yes Yes’s winning time in The Everest 1.30 seconds quicker than Deprive in the Sydney Stakes (where Brutal finished third). Given the pace in what was her first run over such a short trip since her maiden, I’m prepared to forgive her for that performance. The step-up to 1500m is certainly in her favour and she can take up a midfield position from barrier 5. If you missed the early price however, it might pay to wait until race day with the odds of $2.80 looking rather skinny. The Inevitable (4) appeals at the each-way price. He hasn’t put a foot wrong this campaign and the Dundeel gelding should appreciate the tempo over 1500m. Nash Rawiller remaining aboard is a big tick. Classique Legend (2) finally hit a dry track in The Everest but struck interference in the straight. He’s been a touch slow away from the gates at his past two starts and if that’s the case again, he’ll just need some luck late with the inside draw. Speaking of draws, barrier 17 is the only knock on Brutal (1). He’s a big chance in the race, but he’ll need a pearler from Tommy Berry. Kolding (3) is obviously a contender coming off a Group One win, while Military Zone (8) could be one at big odds that can sneak into the placings.
TIPS
15. Arcadia Queen
4. The Inevitable
2. Classique Legend
1. Brutal
This article was originally published by punters.com.au and reproduced with permission
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