Flemington preview: Race-by-race guide to Oaks Day 2019
The Spring Carnival continues with Oaks Day on Thursday — and we’ve got tips and horses to watch in all nine races.
In the aftermath of the Melbourne Cup, Oaks Day kicks off Thursday afternoon.
Here’s a complete guide to the day from the experts at punters.com.au including all the best bets.
HOW TO WATCH
The free-to-air rights are owned by Channel 10, who will be broadcasting all the races from 1.50pm to when the last race jumps at 6.25pm.
You can also watch on Racing.com, found at Channel 522 on Foxtel. On radio, the races will be called by RSN Racing & Sport, 3AW and SEN.
RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE
RACE ONE — TWITTER TROPHY (1800M) — 1:50PM (AEDT)
Impi should take up the lead here and he should get it quite comfortably, with not a lot of pace in the race. Akamon will push through from barrier one to sit close to the pace and I Boogi is the other one likely to be forward.
Assuming Junipal doesn’t back up from Tuesday, Impi (8) looks just about a good thing here. His only defeat came last start against a rising star in Harbour Views and he was very brave there beaten less than a length. He should get things to suit here. The very consistent Reserve Street (3) is a clear second pick. He was second to a nice one at the Valley and a Bairnsdale Cup winner before that. You’d expect a much-improved effort from Mahis Angel (9) third-up on the bigger track here, while Main Stage (6) wasn’t that far behind Impi last time and is a Flemington winner.
VERDICT: Impi should be winning here, but will probably start deep into the red.
RACE TWO — DARLEY MARIBYRNONG PLATE (1000M) — 2:20PM (AEDT)
With eight first starters here, the speed map is a mystery but Boom Daddy led and won at his last start, while Jerle was also forward at his one previous run. You’d expect the pack to split, as they often do in these 2YO sprint races.
I have gone with a first-starter here in Rathlin (9). He is superbly bred, being by Fastnet Rock out of a half sister to Snitzel, and was given a very soft time of it in a recent Caulfield jumpout, sitting in behind them and finishing off untouched in what should be a good education for this race. Arctic Ice (11) motored late at The Valley and would have won in another 50m. She should appreciate the wide expanses of the Flemington straight more here. Hard Landing (8) impressed with his speed at a recent Flemington jumpout and should be right on the pace here, while Jerle (1) will improve again off his second here four weeks ago.
VERDICT: Happy to play each-way on Rathlin to show up here at his first start.
RACE THREE — OFF THE TRACK SUBZERO HANDICAP (1400M) — 2:55PM (AEDT)
The famous greys race is always a spectacular sight and we should see the Tassie horse Sir Simon up near the front of affairs along with Toolbar and Bumper Blast, why it wouldn’t surprise to see Fly For Yulong push forward as well.
Scott Brunton has a great record in Victoria in the past 12 months and Sir Simon (7) brings pretty strong Tassie form and will improve off his last-start win at Launceston. He should make his own luck in front. Rainmoth (4) was a good winner in Adelaide last time and has only been beaten twice in her four-start career. Something Silver (3) has been taking on better quality than this and on her 2L sixth in the Group Two Stocks Stakes earlier this campaign can measure up here. Similarly Platinum Angel (1) is down in class.
VERDICT: Sir Simon can make his own luck on the pace here and represents excellent value at around $8 (BEST VALUE).
RACE FOUR — BUMBLE TROPHY RACE (1700M) — 3:30PM (AEDT)
This is one of those near impossible Melbourne Cup week races with a huge field to contest over 1700m. There isn’t a lot of pace from those drawn inside here and you’d expect Maggie Miss and Sovereign Award to cross quite easily with Arctic Shock and West Wind to press forward as well and Shandy likely to push up from barrier 19.
I have gone with Sovereign Award (10) here in what looks a very tough race. As mentioned, she will press forward and make her own luck on her home track and she was very good last time behind a handy one in Seewhatshebrings. She should also improve second-up.So You Swing (2) has been in good nick this preparation, winning two of his past four and placing in the other two, and is drawn to get the right run here.Savigne (13) has been building to a win this campaign off two good runs this time in and won’t be too far away from the inside barrier, while Metronome (7) is among a host of other chances.
VERDICT: Genuine dartboard job here. If forced to bet, the each-way odds on Sovereign Award appeal.
RACE FIVE — G.H.MUMM CENTURY STAKES (1000M) — 4:05PM (AEDT)
Always a good sprint race this and won by some quality sprinters in recent years, including Lankan Rupee, The Quarterback and Redzel. Ball Of Muscle won it in 2017 and the evergreen sprinter returns here and is sure to be heading up the field down the straight. Equal Love and Tavisan are likely to sit on the pace as well as Yulong Yuheng.
I’m happy to stick with Ball Of Muscle (1) here. He was terrific in the Schillaci last time out and this is an ideal race for him. If there is one to get over the top of him, it might be Soothing (11) who should relish a strong tempo and unwind her late sprint. Crystal Dreamer (2)loves the straight and should get a nice run in behind Ball of Muscle while you can’t write off his stablemate Thermal Current (3) who won this race last year.
VERDICT: Ball Of Muscle should prove too classy.
RACE SIX — MELBOURNE CUP CARNIVAL COUNTRY FINAL (1600M) — 4:40PM (AEDT)
With little pace from the main chances here, you can expect a host of roughies to chance their arms at the front of the field, including Alsvin, Trigger Point, Rebellious Lord and Blinder. Expect Harbour Views to sit just off the pace in behind them having drawn barrier one.
Just half a length separated Harbour Views and O’Tauto last time out at Geelong and you’d think there won’t be much between them again. The barrier separation makes it a tough choice as the inside alley could prove a disadvantage for Harbour Views as he will need to get a run and may be in the inferior ground, while O’Tauto from barrier 15 is likely to be barrelling home down the outside. Check the track bias on the day, but I have to stick with Harbour Views (1). He is still untapped and is on a path to G1 racing in Perth. O’Tauto (4) is progressive and if anything can cause an upset it is him. Ripplebrook (10) was outstanding when missing the start at Seymour last start and was second over this track and distance three starts back. Diplomac Jack (8) is certainly worth considering for exotics at big odds for a last-start winner.
VERDICT: Happy to back Harbour Views as long as the inside of the track is not a distinct disadvantage.
RACE SEVEN — TCL TV STAKES (1800M) — 5:15PM (AEDT)
Pace will again come from the outside here with Tri Nations, Oscar Boy, Vienna Rain and Themagicneverends likely to lead with Quick Thinker to take a sit just off them.
It shapes as an interesting contest. Quick Thinker (1) has top class form this campaign, including a last start fifth in a G1 and the softer the track gets, the better it is for his chances. This is an easier field than he has been tackling and with conditions to suit he should prove too good. Pancho (3) was brilliant charging home from the rear in the Bondi Stakes last start and has improved throughout the campaign. Russian Camelot (10) was a huge winner at Ballarat, but the step to Listed company from a maiden is significant and that is the query over him. Oscar Boy (4)has picked his way nicely through his races this campaign and looks the best of the rest.
VERDICT: Quick Thinker should be a class above these, especially if the track gets softer, and he might be the best of the day (BEST BET).
RACE EIGHT — KENNEDY OAKS (2500M) — 5:50PM (AEDT)
There is not a massive amount of pace in this race on paper, but you can expect a few of the roughies to push forward here and chance a shot at the G1 riches. Apicius led them up in the Wakeful and should do so again with company from Ocean Miss. Miami Bound and Gamay are the two leading chances who should be prominent in the run.
It looks a race between the top four here, with a preference for Gamay (3) on price. She was a good winner of the Ethereal Stakes last time out and unlike her rivals she has the advantage of a couple of weeks between runs. Ryan Moore takes the ride and should give her a sweet trip from the inside barrier. Miami Bound (1) was a good winner of the Wakeful and had scope from improvement from that, where she beat Vegas Jewel (4), who faces challenges here from the wide barrier.
Moonlight Maid (2) has been very impressive this time in but will be spotting her key rivals a start from back in the field. The one worth considering from the others is Never Listen (10) who was an 8L winner in restricted company last start.
VERDICT: Happy to take the value with Gamay at around $6.
RACE NINE — NETWORK 10 RED ROSES STAKES (1100M) — 6:25PM (AEDT)
There’s plenty of pace in this race down the straight, with The Mobot, Sisstar, Witchful Thinking, Niedorp and Amelia’s On Fire all likely to press forward along with the favourite California Zimbol.
California Zimbol (2) brings the right form, beating subsequent G1 winner Loving Gaby last time out. While she is unseen down the straight, you’d think she’d eat this up. She should be able to sit within a length or two off a good pace and use her turn of foot to put her rivals away. Wayupinthesky (5) boasts good Flemington form and was a winner at this track and distance back in September. Second to her that day was Absolute Flirt (4) and she also looks well placed freshened up into this.
VERDICT: California Zimbol looks a class above her rivals her and should give the punters a good finish to the day.
This article was originally published by punters.com.au and reproduced with permission
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