Derby Day 2019: Race-by-race guide to racing’s best day

Our expert’s tips for the four group ones on Derby Day? Nettoya, Libertini, Shadow Hero and Night’s Watch. Find out why in this race-by-race guide.

Derby day is THE day for many racing fans, with four group ones, two group twos and three group threes making up the nine-race card at Flemington.

There’s $8.1 million up for grabs — including $2 million each for the Derby and the Kennedy Cantala Miles — in what marks the opening of the four-day Melbourne Cup carnival.

Here’s a complete guide to the day from the experts at punters.com.au including all the best bets.

HOW TO WATCH

It’s an early start to proceedings, with the first at Flemington getting underway at 11:45am (AEDT). You can watch the entire day on Channel 10 or Sky Racing.

RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE

Don’t miss out on Zoutori in race one. (AAP Image/Vince Caligiuri)

RACE ONE — TAB STAKES (1200M) — 11.45am

Straight-course race to kick off the card and you’d expect Deploy to lead, probably down the middle of the course with the rail in the true position. Malibu Style should be handy, while Tyzone, Order of Command and Viridine are all likely to drop out the back.

Zoutori (4) was super winning over this route two-back, finishing 2L clear of Parsifal who has been in terrific form since. He backed that up with a strong 3rd behind a couple of stars in Sunlight and Santa Ana Lane in the G2 Gilgai (1200m) when very poorly treated at the weights. This looks an ideal assignment third-up and Williams can plot his own course from barrier six.

Viridine (3) got back and made little impression first-up in the G1 Moir Stakes (1000m). However, he certainly seemed to enjoy the extra 100m in the G2 Schillachi last start, ripping home from last at the 400m to finish just on the heels of the placegetters. They ran slick time there and the form has stacked up.

Malibu Style (2) is as honest as they come and boasts plenty of experience down the straight. He was sound in the G2 Bobbie Lewis here two-back before finishing within a length of Miss Leonidas in the G2 Caulfield Sprint (1000) when dropping back in trip. A return to 1200m looks a positive.

Order of Command (6) boasts an impressive record at this track (9:3-3-0) and could easily improve on recent efforts at Caulfield.

Verdict: Zoutori (4) should take plenty of beating in the opener.

RACE TWO — GH MUMM WAKEFUL STAKES (2000m) — 12.20pm

Apicius may take up the running from out wide, with Tisane likely to settle handy from barrier two. Foxborough could settle handy with the blinkers going on for the first time. Flit will probably end up worse than midfield from her wide draw.

Flit (1) appears to have a distinct class edge on her rivals here, with the rise to 2000m being the only real sticking point. Her handicap rating of 104 has her 29 points clear of her nearest rival Vegas Jewel, but under set weights plus penalties, she’ll carry just 3kg more than her rivals. She was strong at the end of the G1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) last start, which is easily the strongest form line to go off here.

Vegas Jewel (5) comes here with a 2000m run under her belt, finishing 2nd to Gamay in the G3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield last start. There are still question marks over the form there but she certainly attacked the line with gusto after settling in the second half of the field.

Foxborough (3) might be the best roughie in the race at $17. Blinkers and a cross-over nose band go on the Sargent filly for the first time and it wouldn’t come as a huge shock to see her settle closer in a race where the speed doesn’t look overly strong. Her effort over 1880m last start was sound enough.

Miami Bound (2) was plain last start but may improve back at Flemington. Oliver sticks, which is a positive lead.

Verdict: Flit (1) for the win. Have a few bucks on the roughie Foxborough (3) as well.

Flit leads the field to the line to win the Schweppes Thousand Guineas. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

RACE THREE — CARBINE CLUB STAKES (1600m) — 1pm

Groundswell and Hilo look the obvious on-pacers in this. Rock Amore may be able to slot in just off the speed. Expect Dalasan to be ridden quieter with the blinkers coming off.

Groundswell (2) maps to either lead or settle behind the leader from the inside peg. He was very good in the Guineas Prelude (1400m) two-back and repeated the dose in the G1 Guineas last start, finishing 3rd behind Super Seth and Alligator Blood. It’s hard to see him going backwards fourth-up and he did have Dalasan’s measure last start.

Dalasan (1) was a bit disappointing last start but the McDonald and Gluyas colt probably resented the application of blinkers. They come off here and he’s drawn beautifully in barrier five. His first three runs this preparation read well enough to be winning this - he just needs to keep his mind on the job.

The above two look to have a bit on the rest but Hilo (7) should be included in exotics. He certainly looked to have his chance at Caulfield last start but was outgunned by Alabama Express in a real two-horse war. He strips fitter and is one of few natural on-speed horses in this.

Heirborn (5) looks suited stepping up to the mile.

Verdict: Groundswell (2) just ahead of Dalasan (1) but there is little between them.

RACE FOUR — HOTHAM STAKES (2500m) — 1.40pm

Haky and Hush Writer will roll forward from out wide to set the pace. Downdraft maps to trail the leaders from barrier one. Valac and The Chosen One should settle forward of midfield.

The Chosen One (8) knocked off Prince Of Arran in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) two-back, with those two putting a real space on the rest of the field. While he didn’t threaten in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start, he was strong late and he’s drawn to settle much closer in this from barrier three (drew 18 last start).

They walked in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) last Saturday and Downdraft (1) was certainly there to win at the top of the straight but was just one-paced in the run to the line, finishing 1.55L away in 3rd. It’s hard to dive in based on that effort but he maps beautifully in this and strips fitter.

Haky (3) was awful first-up in Australia but delivered a much-improved performance last start in the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m). Further improvement third-up would see him in the finish.

Verdict: The Chosen One (8) makes the most appeal if you’re keen to play.

The Chosen One during a trackwork session at Flemington. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

RACE FIVE — EMPIRE ROSE STAKES (1600m) — 2.20pm

Miss Siska will probably land in front from barrier two. Savatiano is likely to roll forward and settle outside of the leader, or even take it up herself. Spanish Reef and Spanish Whisper should find cover just off the speed. Melody Belle has a bit of a tricky alley to overcome and may have to drop in worse than midfield.

Nettoyer (10) makes some appeal at $17 in what looks a wide-open affair. She was solid getting home for 6th in the G1 Epsom two-back after getting a mile out of her ground, before making the most of a class drop to take out the G3 Angst (1600m) last start. Third in that race was Amangiri who then came out and won at The Valley last Saturday. Nettoyer takes on tougher opposition here but she’s at least on an upward curve this preparation.

Pohutukawa (9) is certainly testing the patience of her supporters this preparation, going under as favourite on two occasions. However, she looks perfectly suited stepping up to the mile fourth-up and Flemington is a good fit for her. Any track downgrade is a bonus given she’s 3 from 4 on Soft tracks.

Melody Belle (2) is a star but she maps a bit awkwardly from barrier 13. It’s unlikely that rival hoops will be keen to let Bosson slide in for cover around midfield, so he may have to drift back further than intended to find cover. It’s very hard to fault her form though, winning her last three by a combined margin of 7.1L.

Princess Jenni (7) is another in the mix. She was one of a few hard-luck stories in the G1 Toorak (1600m) last start so it’s probably worth ruling a line through that run. She was super winning the G2 Stocks (1600m) prior.

Verdict: Tough race but happy to be with Nettoyer (10) at $17.

RACE SIX — COOLMORE STUD STAKES (1200m) — 3pm

Sartorial Splendor is likely to be the first horse into stride over on the inside. Alabama Express and Dubious should be prominent closer to the grandstand rail. Cosmic Force, Libertini, Bivouac and Ruuca should find cover in the first half of the field.

What a race! Libertini (12) wasn’t quite at her best over 1400m last start but she still ran well, finishing 0.2L off Funstar who then won the G1 Flight Stakes (1600m) in a canter. She’s been freshened for this and the drop back to 1200m is an obvious positive given she’s 3 from 3 over this trip, including a blistering win in 1:07.93 over Flit. The draw is perfect for Oliver.

Bivouac (2) was a victim of barrier one in the G1 Manikato (1200m) last start, running up backsides when he looked to have plenty to offer. Prior to that he was a strong winner of the G1 Golden Rose (1400m), knocking off Yes Yes Yes who then took out The Everest in brilliant fashion.

The blinkers go on Exceedance (6), who was a 2L winner over Bivouac three-back. Bivouac has had his measure in their last couple of clashes but there was little between them last start in the G1 Golden Rose (1400m). Barrier 11 could be a real advantage if stand-side is the place to be in the straight-course races (take note of R1).

Li’l Kontra (13) is at least a level or two below the above three but she’s one to consider for exotics given her consistency and toughness. The SA visitor just never runs a bad race and was huge running 2nd in the G3 Blue Sapphire Stakes (1200m) last start. It’s a massive task she faces but she won’t shirk it.

Verdict: Libertini (12) on top in what should be one of the highlights of the spring.

RACE SEVEN — VICTORIA DERBY (2500m) — 3.45pm

Sarsha Chisholm with Derby hopeful Shadow Hero. Picture: David Caird

Thought Of That maps to lead from the inside alley. Navarre and Sign Seal Deliver will probably push across from out wide. Relucent can settle reasonably handy from barrier four. Long Jack is likely to drift back from his carpark draw.

Shadow Hero (1) hasn’t put a foot wrong in the lead-up to this. He savaged the line first-up over 1500m before romping away with the G3 Gloaming (1800m). The son of Pierro then quickened nicely late to take out the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m), defeating Castelvecchio who then finished 2nd to a genuine superstar in the Cox Plate. The only query is the rise to 2500m, but that applies to every runner in this field.

Soul Patch (2) relished the rise from 1600m to 2040m last start, exploding away in the straight to take out the G2 Vase ahead of one of the Oaks favourites in Moonlight Maid - who in turn put 3.25L on the 3rd-placegetter. He was a strong winner when box-seating here three-back and he maps for a similar run in this from barrier two.

Thought Of That (3) has won his last two starts by 8L and 3.75L - so he can obviously gallop. He was able to control the tempo up front in the G3 Norman Robinson (2000m) last start and you’d imagine similar tactics will be adopted here from barrier one. If he’s pressured early, Zahra can then take a sit just off the pace. The way he relaxed last start suggests he’ll have no issues seeing out the 2500m here.

Warning (4) showed a lovely turn-of-foot to win here two-back before working home steadily without threat behind Thought Of That at Caulfield last start. Although the winner was dominant, this Freedman gelding was definitely the best of the closers.

Verdict: Shadow Hero (1) for the win.

RACE EIGHT — KENNEDY CANTALA (1600m) — 4.35pm

Cliff’s Edge should lead from barrier two, with Streets of Avalon likely to roll forward and take up a position in the first three. Fifty Stars and Iconoclasm map for nice runs just off the pace. Chief Ironside should settle around midfield with cover, a couple of pairs ahead of Night’s Watch.

It was a bunched finish in the G2 Crystal Mile (1600m) last Saturday - with just 1L separating the first seven home - but Chief Ironside (15) was strong when it counted and he plummets in weight here. The Menuisier-trained galloper drops 6kg on that run and meets both Cliff’s Edge and Best Of Days better at the weights for beating them. He maps to get the right run in this from barrier eight.

Night’s Watch (8) has threatened to win a race this preparation but luck has deserted him. His run in the G1 Makybe Diva (1600m) here two-back was only fair but he was terrific in the G1 Toorak (1600m) last start charging into 2nd after being held-up at a vital stage. His record here at headquarters is a slight concern but he’s going well enough to figure in the finish with the right run.

Fierce Impact (6) has drawn horribly but he’s flying at the moment and the Kolding form reads incredibly well for this. No doubt Night’s Watch should have finished a bit closer to him last start but it was still an impressive performance at G1 level. Rain certainly wouldn’t harm his chances.

Royal Meeting (5) was a little underwhelming to the eye last start but he was first-up for almost a year and carrying 60kg so it’s probably a bit harsh to judge him off that. This is the race he’s been set for and you’d expect there is plenty of improvement to come second-up. The draw makes things tricky though.

Verdict: Chief Ironside (15) and Night’s Watch (8) worth backing at $12 and $7 respectively.

RACE NINE — FURPHY SPRINT (1100m) — 5.15pm

Pippie looks the leader closest to the stand side. Spirit’s Choice is likely to settle handy, with Manicure and Sweet Scandal also in close attendance. Demerara and Tofane will be looking to swoop from midfield.

Tough race to close a huge card. Miss Iano (10) doesn’t look hopeless at $21 coming off an unlucky run at Caulfield against horses that she meets again here. In fact, she could have easily won her last three starts over this distance with a bit more luck. This will be her first go down the straight but barrier 14 could be a positive by this stage of the day.

Tofane (2) is a tricky horse to catch on the punt but her best is very good. She brought her A-game to Caulfield last start, sprinting quickly at the 200m to put away a G3 field in fairly soft fashion. A repeat of that would see her go close again ... but she can mix her form. Manicure (1) was 2nd to Tofane that day and meets her 2kg better for a 1L margin, so she has to be considered also.

Pippie (4) is a hard one to assess. She was basically eased out of the race as a $1.95F last start but her previous form was outstanding, winning three on the bounce by big margins. You’d have to think the stable wouldn’t be running her here is she wasn’t 100% right but perhaps betting fluctuations will tell the story.

Spirit’s Choice (12) comes down to Melbourne on the back of strong on-pace wins at Ipswich and Sunshine Coast. This is harder, but she could take catching if it’s an advantage to be stand-side.

Verdict: Miss Iano (10) looks overs at $21 in a tricky race to close.

Jockey Craig Williams and Miss Iano. (AAP Image/George Salpigtidis)

This article was originally published by punters.com.au and reproduced with permission