Cox Plate: Runner-by-runner preview, tips and bet strategy

A “Russian” heads into the Cox Plate as the heavy favourite, but Melbourne’s wild weather is expected to cause havoc in the marquee race.

James Lamb and punters.com.au

6 min read

October 24, 2020 - 3:51PM

Victorian government made a 'grave failure' with Cox Plate decision reversal

Australia’s premier weight-for-age contest is upon us, with a field of 14 set to face the starter at Saturday’s Cox Plate

The forecast in Melbourne — three to 10mm of rain on Friday and 10 to 20mm on Saturday — suggests we’ll see racing on a rain-affected track. The exact rating is always hard to predict but I’ve worked to a Soft 6.

The main event is Race 9 at Moonee Valley, which is scheduled to be run at 4.15pm AEDT.

ANALYSIS

1. KOLDING

This Waller gelding was an absolute revelation last spring, winning the G1 Epsom (1600m) and the Golden Eagle (1500m) in Sydney. He was a completely different horse through the autumn though, failing to place in five runs. Many thought his best was behind him coming into this campaign but Waller has him firing again, coming into this race off back-to-back wins in the G1 George Main Stakes (1600m) and the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m). The horse he beat in the Hill Stakes, Avilius, was good without luck in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last week. This will be his first run at The Valley and just his third in Melbourne (unplaced in the other two).

TAB odds — Win: $12, place: $3.50

2. HUMIDOR

The rejuvenated veteran was a controversial omission (or non-selection) from this race last year, following a 0.4L 2nd to Winx in 2017 — his career-best run — and a 4.75L 3rd in 2018. He was getting well-beaten in G3 races in Perth earlier this year and retirement seemingly loomed large but Waller has completely turned his form around. The 8YO was a shock winner of the G2 Feehan Stakes (1600m) here three-back, before splitting Russian Camelot and Arcadia Queen in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) last start. Those two horses held him comfortably last time but doubt the slow tempo helped his cause. Barrier 14 makes things tricky.

Win: $21, place: $5

Humidor (right) is back after missing last year’s race.

3. FIERCE IMPACT

This ultra-consistent entire knocked off Russian Camelot to win the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington two-back. He then returned to Sydney and finished 2.2L off Kolding as a $2.30F in the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m). He clocked similar closing sectionals to the winner there but just had too much to do from the back (probably settled further back than expected). The rain won’t hurt his chances given he won the G1 Cantala Stakes (1600m) on a Soft 7 last spring, but the barrier (12) stings a little. Others boast stronger 2000m credentials, but he’s just so genuine.

Win: $34, place: $8

4. MASTER OF WINE

The Hawkes gelding is on the quick back-up here after finishing 10th in last Saturday’s G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), beaten by 4.6L. He was ridden against his usual pattern there, settling outside of the leader, but was still pretty disappointing. He’s yet to place in four runs this spring, with a 0.8L 5th to Verry Elleegant in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) his best effort. A repeat of that would give him an outside hope of placing, but he needs to find lengths on his most recent effort.

Win: $34, place: $8

5. MUGATOO

Saved from the Caulfield Cup for this, Mugatoo was last seen finishing a head off Mirage Dancer in the G1 Metropolitan (2400m) last start. The winner there was a total forgive job in the Caulfield Cup, so it’s not exactly easy to get a read on that form. The likelihood of a rain-affected track helps Mugatoo, who is 4 from 7 on soft tracks, but he’s still yet to prove himself at WFA level. The progressive gelding was beaten 9.1L behind Verry Elleegant in the G1 Tancred Stakes (2400m) last autumn — which was his first big test at this level.

Win: $26, place: $6

6. ASPETAR

Aspetar doesn’t have the gate speed to take advantage of barrier three, with Lane likely to settle him in the last three or four. He was a G2 winner over this distance last start, following a close-up 2nd at Sandown when seemingly every chance. The last time he travelled outside of the UK, he was beaten 14.5L in the G1 Hong Kong Vase (2400m) at Sha Tin. He did however win the G1 Preis Von Europa (2400m) in Germany prior to that. His racing style doesn’t exactly look ideal for 2040m around The Valley, even though his record at this trip reads well on paper (4:2-1-1).

Win: $16, place: $4.40

7. SIR DRAGONET

The rain will help Sir Dragonet’s chances.

Sir Dragonet looked no hope on a dry track, but the rain definitely increases his chances. The son of Camelot, now with Maher and Eustace, finished 2nd to Magical at G1 level over this trip last start, which obviously reads nicely for this. Prior to that he was rolled by Buckhurst as a $1.90F, but that was on a good-rated track where he is 3:0-1-0. So far in his 9-start career, he’s been beaten at $1.90, $2.90, $1.55, $3.75, $1.45 and $3.75 — so punters have rated him much higher than what he’s actually produced so far (a maiden win and a G3 win beating Norway and Dashing Willoughby).

Win: $13, place: $3.70

8. MAGIC WAND (scratched)

9. ARCADIA QUEEN

The West Australian mare was back to her brilliant best last start, beating Russian Camelot by 1.25L in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m). The bar plates came off there and they remain off here, which is obviously a great sign that her feet are in much better condition than they were at the start of the spring. The way the race was run last start suited her, sitting back in a small field before letting rip with a sharp turn-of-foot. You would imagine this event will be run at a more genuine tempo, with the 3YO running along in front, and the threat of rain is a negative. You couldn’t possibly rule her out on what she showed at Caulfield last start though.

Win: $5.50, place: $2.10

10. NETTOYER

The popular pizza-eating mare put in an improved effort last start, finishing 2nd in the G3 Craven Plate (2000m). This is a significant step up from that though and you couldn’t possibly have her based on what she’s done since winning the G1 Doncaster (1600m) at big odds.

Win: $81, place: $17

11. RUSSIAN CAMELOT

The big “Russian” had his colours lowered last start, finishing 1.25L off Arcadia Queen as a $1.40F in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m). However, the sit-and-sprint nature of that race didn’t really suit, and you could argue Pike on Arcadia Queen caught Oliver by surprise a little bit in the straight. Hopefully, for Russian Camelot’s sake, they really stretch out in this and he can build through his gears and have a full head of steam rounding the tight final bend. Maybe he needs a bit further than 2040m now, but the likelihood of a wet track is a big plus given what we saw in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) on a Soft 6 two-back. Barrier 15 doesn’t look great, but you’d rather see him outside of runners than searching for runs on the inside.

Win: $4.60, place: $1.90

Damien Oliver will be hoping for an improvement from Russian Camelot.

12. ARMORY

Armory looks the pick of the internationals, coming off a 3rd behind Magical and Ghaiyyath in the G1 Irish Champion over this trip last start. He was $67 there, so maybe it was a spike run, but that effort looks good enough to give this a real shake. A genuinely wet track would have to be some query though given Sir Dragonet beat him quite comfortably with more weight when they clashed over this distance three-back. He’s been a dominant winner over much shorter trips than this, so he certainly possesses a decent turn-of-foot. Melham should put him in the right spot from barrier six.

Win: $6, place: $2.20

13. PROBABEEL

The Kiwi mare is just a model of consistency, finishing in the top two in 14 of her 18 career starts. She was dominant winning the G3 Ritchie Handicap (1400m) two-back, before overcoming a wide run to take out the G1 Epsom Handicap (1600m) in comfortable fashion. That was a sensational win and although 2000m remains a bit of a query — especially a fast-run 2000m — she does map for a pretty economical run from barrier two. She doesn’t want it really wet, but a soft deck is no issue at all. McEvoy has ridden her seven times and never finished worse than 2nd. Her stablemate Te Akau Shark came off a similar set-up to run 3rd in this event last year.

Win: $8.50, place: $2.80

14. GRANDSLAM

The lone 3YO in the field, carrying just 49.5kg, finished 3rd in the G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) last start but was well-held. He started $61 in that but is just $21 in this much harder race. Prior to the Guineas, the Maher and Eustace colt was beaten in a BM64 at Flemington after sitting outside of the leader. He’ll likely lead in this, and run along at a decent clip, but it’s hard to see him not getting the staggers in the straight. The early price ($21) looks serious unders.

Win: $19, place: $5

15e. BUCKHURST

The 1st emergency was well-held in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) last Saturday and looks tested if he does gain a run here. A wet track would be a real negative, given Sir Dragonet finished 4.45L in front of him on a soft deck three-back.

Win: $41, place: $9