Cox Plate form guide: Best bet and best value from every race at Moonee Valley

Our expert has combed the field in every race on Cox Plate Day and found the safest bet – and the best value runner.

Cox Plate Day has arrived to cheer up Victoria and the rest of the nation – but it’s not just Australia’s premier weight-for-age contest that is peaking interest.

See the expert advice from punters.com.au for races one through 10 at Moonee Valley below, or read our expansive runner-by-runner guide for the big one here.

RACE ONE — STRATHMORE COMMUNITY BENDIGO BANK HANDICAP (955M), 11:40AM

Ancestry (2) is hard to tip against having won 5 of his last 6 outings. He dropped back from 1200m to 1000m second-up and absolutely romped home at Cranbourne, beating the handy Parsifal by 3.25L, with Vainstream 5L off the winner in 3rd. A repeat of that would see him prove extremely hard to beat. He’s 2 from 3 on heavy, so the rain isn’t a concern.

Jungle Edge (1) has drawn inside of Ancestry and can make that runner work a bit early. He has a surprisingly poor record here at The Valley though (8:0-2-0).

The Centaurian (4) didn’t beat a runner home in two runs last preparation but is better than that. He won well here three-back and is 2 from 2 on heavy, if the track is really wet.

Free Of Debt (7) will need plenty of luck from the inside gate given he’ll definitely be crossed early. His best is good enough if he sees clear running.

VERDICT: Ancestry (2) on top but happy to watch at the short odds.

Ancestry after winning the Procon Developments Apache Cat Classic.

RACE TWO — INGLIS BANNER (1000M), 12:10PM

With a 1000 races to punt on this weekend, I’m happy to shoulder arms to this one.

VERDICT: Pass.

RACE THREE — PFD FOOD SERVICES RED ANCHOR STAKES (1200M), 12:40PM

Bella Nipotina (7) sat outside the leader and was dominant winning at Caulfield three-back, before finding the pace and the class a bit rich in the G1 Moir Stakes (1000m). She was solid back in grade last start behind a couple of smart ones in Swats That and Muntaseera. A wet track is no knock.

Valaquenta (1) is likely to be spotting his rivals a start from the outside alley, but he’s 1 from 1 here and his two runs this campaign read well for this.

Portland Sky (5) has drawn to follow the leader – likely to be Mildred – so Melham may need to do a bit of bumping to get into the open. He was better than Valaquenta in the same race last start.

Free To Move (2) won well over this route last start and there’s no reason why he can’t improve again third-up.

VERDICT: Bella Nipotina (7) for the win.

RACE FOUR — LEXUS FILLIES CLASSIC (1600M), 1:10PM

Ecumenical (2) was massive in the G1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) last start, travelling wide without cover throughout. Despite the tough run, the Huxtable filly kept kicking in the straight to grab 4th. Provided she’s come through that run in fine order, she should take plenty of beating over the same distance here. Once again she’s drawn wide, which is probably the main knock.

Thermosphere (1) wasn’t as good as Ecumenical last start but maps well from barrier three. She won her only start on a heavy track and also won the G3 Magic Night Stakes (1200m) on a Soft 6.

Miss Inbetween (3) will probably lead from barrier four. All four of her efforts this campaign have been sound and her fitness should take her a long way if it’s a testing surface.

Incredulous Dream (4) might be looking a bit negative in barrier one, but she was good winning at Caulfield last start.

VERDICT: She’ll need a good ride but Ecumenical (2) looks the one to beat.

I Am Eloquent ridden by Linda Meech.

RACE FIVE — POWERFLO SOLUTIONS STAKES (1600M), 1:40PM

I Am Eloquent (11) hasn’t shown much this campaign but could be overs at $21. She’ll likely head forward to race on the outside of likely leader Greysful Glamour who struggles on really wet tracks. This mare on the other hand loves the wet, recording dominant wins at her only two starts on heavy. She needs to lift but is open to sharp improvement third-up (best runs last spring came when third and fourth-up).

Paradee (10) has had an odd prep, running first-up over 1400m on August 29 before not racing again until October 14. She was good last start but just lacked that killer edge late. She should strip a lot fitter here but her best runs have come on dry ground. She did endure a tough run when beaten on a Heavy 8 though.

Sovereign Award (3) has won her last couple at this track/distance. She’s incredibly consistent, finishing in the top two in 10 of her 15 starts, and generally makes her own luck on-speed.

Bonvicini (5) will likely be spotting her rivals a start but appears to be crying out for this trip.

VERDICT: Wide-open race, so happy to have something small on I Am Eloquent (11) at $21 (needs it really wet though).

RACE SIX — DRUMMOND GOLF VASE (2040M), 2.15pm

Young Werther (6) was unlucky not to win at Flemington last start when splitting Khoekhoe and Albarado. The latter has since won, so the form should stack up here. The rise from 1800m to 2040m looks ideal third-up and he maps to get every possible chance. He should be winning this on his way to the Derby.
Cherry Tortoni (3) was poor in Sydney last start but his effort here prior in the G2 Stutt Stakes (1600m) was excellent. There was also plenty to like about his first-up effort, so we can probably forgive his Spring Champion (2000m) flop. He’s won 3 from 4 on rain-affected ground.
Khoekhoe (1) beat Young Werther last start. He received a better ride than the runner-up but it was still a nice win. The barrier means he’ll more than likely have to run past the top pick here.
Johnny Get Angry (7) is showing staying promise and will eat up 2040m.
VERDICT: Young Werther (6) for the win.

Young Werther ridden by Damien Oliver.

RACE SEVEN — SCHWEPPES CRYSTAL MILE (1600M), 2:50PM

Kings Will Dream (2) finished 10th in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) last start but was only beaten 2.5L. He was hampered in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) prior to that, so his form is a little better than it looks on paper. He doesn’t want it heavy but can win if the track is a Soft 6.

Homesman (1) won last year’s G2 Feehan Stakes at this track/distance. His form since has been mixed but he’s a quality galloper when right and he generally performs well when fresh (6:2-2-0). He was only 2L off Verry Elleegant over this trip two-back.

Dr Drill (5) likes give in the ground and maps for a soft run in behind the leaders. He’ll need luck from that spot but he’s placed in both of his runs here at The Valley and deserves a change of luck (lame two-back and given no hope on resumption).

Olmedo (4) has a stack of gear changes and is coming into this off three barrier trials. Betting may tell the story with him.

VERDICT: Kings Will Dream (2) on top but not a heap of confidence here.

RACE EIGHT — MCCAFE MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP (2500M), 3:30PM

Shared Ambition (4) was good without a heap of luck at Flemington last start. Williams set him a fair old task (giving the winner Persan 3.5kg) and the effort told. He finished within a length of Steel Prince, who took out the Geelong Cup (2400m) on Wednesday. While his record on heavy isn’t flash (3:0-0-1), he’s had genuine excuses in two of those runs. He’s 3 from 4 on soft.

Sound (7) beat home Shared Ambition last start and is going really well this campaign. He finds it hard to win these days but was only narrowly denied here two-back and gets the services of a very much in-form Mark Zahra.

Gallic Chieftain (1) isn’t the easiest horse to catch on the punt but his last-start effort in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) was good enough to be competitive in this. He’s won here previously and should be nearing peak fitness fourth-up.

Super Girl (13) might be one to throw in the quaddie at $34. She was stiff not to win over 2400m at Caulfield last start after having no luck at all in the G3 Bart Cummings (2510m) when monster odds. She won on a Heavy 8 first-up.

VERDICT: Shared Ambition (4) appeals at $4.

Russian Camelot ridden by Damien Oliver.

RACE NINE — LADBROKES COX PLATE (2040M), 4:15PM

Russian Camelot (11) had his colours lowered last start, finishing 1.25L off Arcadia Queen as a $1.40F in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m). However, the sit-and-sprint nature of that race didn’t really suit, and you could argue Pike on Arcadia Queen caught Oliver by surprise a little bit in the straight. Hopefully, for Russian Camelot’s sake, they really stretch out in this and he can build through his gears and have a full head of steam rounding the tight final bend. Maybe he needs a bit further than 2040m now, but the likelihood of a wet track is a big plus given what we saw in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) on a Soft 6 two-back. Barrier 15 doesn’t look great, but you’d rather see him outside of runners than searching for runs on the inside.

Probabeel (13) is just a model of consistency, finishing in the top two in 14 of her 18 career starts. She was dominant winning the G3 Ritchie Handicap (1400m) two-back, before overcoming a wide run to take out the G1 Epsom Handicap (1600m) in comfortable fashion. That was a sensational win and although 2000m remains a bit of a query – especially a fast-run 2000m – she does map for a pretty economical run from barrier two. She doesn’t want it really wet, but a soft deck is no issue at all. McEvoy has ridden her seven times and never finished worse than 2nd. Her stablemate Te Akau Shark came off a similar set-up to run 3rd in this event last year.

Arcadia Queen (8) was back to her brilliant best last start, beating Russian Camelot by 1.25L in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m). The bar plates came off there and they remain off here, which is obviously a great sign that her feet are in much better condition than they were at the start of the spring. The way the race was run last start suited her, sitting back in a small field before letting rip with a sharp turn-of-foot. You would imagine this event will be run at a more genuine tempo, with the 3YO running along in front, and the threat of rain is a negative. You couldn’t possibly rule her out on what she showed at Caulfield last start though.

Armory (12) looks the pick of the internationals, coming off a 3rd behind Magical and Ghaiyyath in the G1 Irish Champion over this trip last start. He was $67 there, so maybe it was a spike run, but that effort looks good enough to give this a real shake. A genuinely wet track would have to be some query though given Sir Dragonet beat him quite comfortably with more weight when they clashed over this distance three-back. He’s been a dominant winner over much shorter trips than this, so he certainly possesses a decent turn-of-foot. Melham should put him in the right spot from barrier six.

VERDICT

1. Russian Camelot, 2. Probabeel, 3. Arcadia Queen, 4. Armory

RACE TEN — LADBROKES CROCKETT STAKES (1200M), 4:50PM

Highly Discreet (4) could be a sharp improver provided the inside isn’t absolute quicksand. She was excellent running 2nd to the smart Swats That here two-back before clashing with that runner again at Caulfield last start. She was poor there, overracing back in the field and costing herself any chance of running on. Forgive that run and she definitely has claims at double-figure odds.

Written Beauty (5) has the speed to overcome the wide gate. She was dominant winning over 1100m at Canterbury first-up off a nice trial and was a 6L winner when second-up last campaign. She was beaten at her only start on a heavy track, but finished 3L clear of 3rd there.

Maha (3) and Minhaaj (1) finished 2nd and 3rd respectively to that filly at Flemington last start. Minhaaj gets blinkers for the first time here.

VERDICT: Highly Discreet (4) worth an each-way play at $12. BEST VALUE

This article was originally published by punters.com.au and reproduced with permission