Cox Plate form guide: Runner-by-runner preview

The Cox Plate is facing a major drama that has left one of the favourites for the famous race under threat of being scratched.

Zaaki is the favourite for the race. Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

Australia’s premier weight-for-age contest is upon us for another year, with a field of 10 set to face the starter over the famous Moonee Valley 2040m.

But there was a spanner thrown into the works as two runners were not passed fit to run in the race.

Gold Trip, who was one of the favourites for the race, was deemed to have lameness in his off fore and off hind leg, and faces a potential scratching if it can’t improve on Friday.

Jockey Damien Oliver said he was stunned by the news.

“He felt fine to me,” Oliver told Racing.com. “I find it unusual that no one’s actually asked me how it felt because I’m the one that’s putting my neck on the line riding the horse.

“I’ve ridden internationals before, I haven’t felt comfortable on them before and actually volunteered that this horse isn’t right.

“But this horse (Gold Trip) felt fine to me last week when I galloped him. Hopefully, he does take his place because he’s obviously a really good horse. For me, he’s sound and I have no problems with his action, and I’m very comfortable to ride him if he takes his place on Saturday.”

The other horse is Callsign Mav, who has lameness in his left front leg.

Trainer John Bary said the horse had slight bruising on one of his heels.

Showers are forecast on Friday (2 to 6mm) and Saturday (2 to 5mm) but it’s unlikely we’ll see a repeat of last year’s Soft 7 track unless the meteorologists have missed the mark.

The below analysis is based on a Soft 5 track, with a Soft 6 probably the worst case scenario.

Cox Plate speed map, runner-by-runner preview, tips and $100 betting strategy below.

The experts at punters.com.au have run their eye over the field and here’s their verdict.

Zaaki is the favourite for the $5m race. Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

1. Zaaki (Barrier 6)

Zaaki was plain in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) when beaten 1.85L as a $1.28 favourite. It was a small field and a bit of a tactical affair, plus you can forgive a very good horse one ordinary showing. Superstar mare Sunline was rolled at $1.40 in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) before romping home to win the 2000 Cox Plate by a lazy 7L three weeks later. Zaaki is no Sunline, but it can be dangerous to read too much into one run. Prior to his Caulfield Stakes flop, Zaaki beat Probabeel by 2L in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield, following an effortless first-up victory in the G2 Tramway Stakes (1400m). His win in the G1 Doomben Cup over this distance was one of the most destructive victories of the last 12 months, scoring by 7L in slick time. The Valley surface should be to his liking (little bit of give) and he’s drawn to land in the first four without too much trouble. McDonald back on is an obvious positive – they have won their last four starts together by a combined margin of 12.28L.

2. Dalasan (3)

Dalasan has had one previous run here but it was over 1200m, so it counts for very little. His recent form in WFA races around this distance range is very good, finishing within a length of Addeybb in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) four starts ago. He got a mile back from a terrible gate in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) two-back but worked home steadily for 8th, before finishing strongly for 3rd in the G1 Epsom (1600m) last start when giving the winner Private Eye 2.5kg. That perhaps wasn’t the strongest Epsom – Aramayo ran 2nd and there was little between the first six across the line – but it looks a nice stepping stone into this. He finished 3rd in the G1 Doncaster (1600m) in the autumn before testing Addeybb and Verry Elleegant when fourth-up, as he is here.

3. Gold Trip (3)

Gold Trip is one of the favourites. Photo: Jay Town/Racing Photos via Getty Images

Armory finished 2nd in this race last year and Gold Trip comes over with similar Group 1 form from 2000m to 2400m.The import, now trained by Maher and Eustace, was just 2.4L away in last year’s Arc (2400m), which is widely-regarded as one of the best races in the world in terms of quality. His last two runs, over 2100m and 2400m, have been excellent, finishing just over a length off smart Aidan O’Brien stayer Broome back in July this year. It’s always difficult to predict how these internationals/imports will go first-up in Australia, especially in the pressure cooker of a Cox Plate, but he’s drawn well and gets Damien Oliver. He seemed to handle The Valley circuit well during the week and Maher and the stable know exactly what it takes to win this event (Sir Dragonet last year).

4. Callsign Mav (5)

This Kiwi galloper comes here in career-best form, posting back-to-back G1 wins over 1400m and 1600m. The horses he’s been beating are no Zaaki or Verry Elleegants, but he’s got a bit of toughness about him and will make his own luck up on the pace. Melody Belle and Avantage had his measure in 1600m races back in New Zealand and they were a rung or two below the absolute top-liners here, so it’s hard to make a case for him on that basis. He’s only raced over 2000m once and he was well-held at G2 level.

5. Mo’unga (4)

Zaaki’s stablemate has flown under the radar a fair bit for a horse who beat Verry Elleegant first-up and finished just 0.3L off Incentivise in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) two-back. He finished 5th in the G1 Epsom (1600m) last start but was only 1.62L off the winner and was back in 11th passing the 400m. He won the G1 Rosehill Guineas over this trip last campaign and was far from disgraced in the G1 Queen Elizabeth when finishing 2.6L off Addeybb. Bowman should give him every chance here from barrier four.

6. Verry Elleegant (9)

Verry Elleegant was surprisingly average in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) last start after seemingly enjoying a lovely run in transit just off the leaders. Lane looked to have plenty of horse under him at the top of the straight but she was very one-paced in the run to the line as Incentivise fought off the swoopers. That was her worst run for a long time, but like Zaaki, it’s better to go off her body of work over the last 12 months rather than one flop. She was super mowing down Riodini in the G1 George Main (1600m) prior (Think It Over 3rd there) and was brave behind Mo’unga first-up on a dry track. She’s proven herself at WFA level time and time again, but The Valley remains a query. She’s only had one previous start here, finishing 10.45L off Lys Gracieux in the 2019 Cox Plate as a $21 chance. Obviously she has found lengths since then, and her racing manners have improved significantly, but she can still be a little unsettled at times. Waller would have been hoping for more rain than is forecast.

Verry Elleegant won the 2020 Racehorse of the Year and Caulfield Cup. Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)

7. Probabeel (7)

This gun Kiwi mare has been pretty unlucky to strike genuinely rain-affected tracks in her only two trips to The Valley. She was beaten 4.5L in last year’s Cox Plate and was absolutely thrashed in the All-Star Mile as a $3.50 favourite. Her record on top of the ground is outstanding though, winning 12 from 17 on good tracks. She battled on well for 2nd behind Zaaki in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) two-back, before surprisingly turning the tables on him in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m). The horse she crossed the line there with, Nonconformist, has since finished 2nd to Incentivise in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), gapping the rest. If the rain stays away, Probabeel warrants plenty of respect.

8. State Of Rest (8)

State Of Rest is much harder to line up than the other international Gold Trip. Unlike that horse, he’s never raced over 2000m. He did however win well over 1911m last start, taking out the G1 Derby Invitational on a firm track at Saratoga. Prior to that he had done most of his racing over 1400m and 1600m. Obviously you have to respect the fact that Joseph O’Brien has brought him out for this but barrier eight hasn’t helped his cause (will be giving Zaaki and Gold Trip a start). His record suggests he wants it dry.

9. Anamoe (10)

Unlike other 3YOs who have had success in this race over the years, Anamoe has no early speed and the wide gate means he’ll likely settle in the last two. He has a huge motor, as she showed when coming from well back to win the G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) last start, but there are a couple of unknowns here. This will be his first start at The Valley – at times a graveyard for swoopers – and his first go beyond a mile. He gives every indication that he’ll wrong a strong 2040m, especially with just 49.5kg on his back, but you never really know until they do it. For that reason, the $4 being shopped around early seems a bit skinny but his career to date is hard to knock. Most would argue he’s a better horse than Castelvecchio who ran 2nd in this race in 2019 with a very similar racing pattern.

10. Captivant (1)

Captivant’s form was only average until running 2nd in the G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) last start as a $26 chance. The mile (and potentially further) seems to be the key to him. Like Anamoe, he doesn’t really have the early toe to take advantage of his featherweight, but perhaps he can settle a bit closer from barrier one if Yendall gives him an early dig. Anamoe has had his measure every time they have clashed, but maybe the rise in distance will close the gap between them.