Cox Plate 2017: Runner-by-runner guide
OUR runner-by-runner guide to the Cox Plate is your betting cheat-sheet to a race Winx will dominate but still has value.
MIGHTY mare Winx is shooting for three Cox Plates in a row and if the market is any guide, she’ll be doing it in second gear.
At one stage it looked as though there might only be five or six challengers against the world’s best horse on turf but a few late entrants have pushed the field out to nine starters.
Still, the field for the race, which is scheduled to start at Moonee Valley at 5pm, is thin.
“In reality it’s as bad a Cox Plate as I’ve ever seen — the quality. Everyone’s absolutely petrified of Winx, (and) so they should be,” former cricketer and horse owner Simon O’Donnell told SEN.
“They’re thinking there’s $400-500,000 for second, that’s a lot of money, but I can go and win the Mackinnon Stakes and other races around that I’m going to get $900,000-$1 million for.
“I understand why people have dodged her, but it’s a horse race and logically people will say she just wins. Racing isn’t made about logic, it’s completely and utterly illogical.”
Our comprehensive runner-by-runner guide takes a look at each of the contenders, with a betting guide at the bottom.
1. Happy Clapper (AUS) Jockey: Damien Oliver (59kg) Trainer: Patrick Webster
The Webster-trained gelding has put together a solid body of work this preparation, winning the G2 Tramway (1400m) on resumption and the G1 Epsom Handicap (1600m) two-back. In between those runs he made Winx work hard to beat him in the G1 George Main Stakes (1600m) at Randwick, finishing just 1.3L behind the superstar and 4.5L clear of third-placed Foxplay. He copped a negative ride in the G3 Craven Plate (2000m) last start, snagged back from the inside peg to settle in the last three. Shinn then took off wide before the home turn on a day where you really didn’t want to be more than three-off the fence. The 7YO hit the line hard but was ultimately denied by the leader Classic Uniform who was perfectly-rated in front.
Barrier nine looks a touch awkward on paper but if Oliver is positive out of the gates he may be able to slot in behind Folkswood if Hardham/Winx are allowed to find their feet early. On paper his 2000m record looks average (5:0-1-1) but four of the five runs have come in G1 WFA races and his only poor showing was in the 2016 Mackinnon Stakes when he got a long way back from the outside barrier. He’s going well enough to figure in the minor money here.
Predicted finishing position: 2-4
2. Gailo Chop (FR) (4) Mark Zahra (59kg) Darren Weir
A Cox Plate appearance seemed pretty unlikely following this gelding’s 8L last in the G2 PB Lawrence Stakes (1400m) on resumption but he’s shown real improvement in every run since (probably not that surprising given he was off the scene for some 511 days). He followed a solid win in a fairly moderate race in Adelaide with a gritty 4th in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) — a race run to suit the swoopers, and in particular Humidor. He then stepped up to 1800m and again battled on gamely behind Bonneval and Hartnell in the G1 Underwood Stakes at Caulfield. With his fitness exactly where it needed to be last start, Zahra took him to the front in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) and he kicked away in the straight before digging in late to keep a charging Johannes Vermeer at bay. They put a gap on the rest and the runner-up has since performed admirably in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m).
Gailo Chop is rock-hard fit and there’s every chance he’ll take up the running in this. He’s got two wins to his name in G1 WFA races over 2000m, which is more than you can say for most of his rivals. He doesn’t shy away from a scrap and it’s hard to knock his lead-up.
Predicted finishing position: 2-4
3. Humidor (NZ) (8) Blake Shinn (59kg) Darren Weir
Backing up from last Saturday’s 5th-placing in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), this Weir-trained gelding has been a source of frustration for his trainer in recent times. Following a dominant 3.25L victory in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m), Humidor jumped a $7.50 second-favourite behind Winx in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) over this trip but hung in badly under pressure to finish 7.25L off the mare. Weir applied a bubble cheeker (near side) for the first time last week in an attempt to straighten him up but it didn’t really have the desired effect and he was once again wayward in the straight. The blinkers have finally been applied for the first time here which could lead to sharp improvement — both in race manners and performance — but it could also backfire given how temperamental this horse seems to be.
There is no doubting this horse is talented but his quirks are holding him back from being a consistent performer at Group One level. The huge crowd and velodrome-like aspect of Moonee Valley has to be a genuine concern with Humidor given he can get quite stirred up before his races.
Predicted finishing position: 4-6
4. Kaspersky (IRE) (2) Michelle Payne (59kg) Jane Chapple-Hyam
This UK galloper was poor at his Australian debut in the G1 Toorak Handicap (1600m), leading to the home turn before dropping out in the straight to finish 8L from Tosen Stardom. The horse who sat outside of him in Tom Melbourne battled on pretty well to finish 6th, beaten 2.6L, which doesn’t reflect all that well on this Chapple-Hyam entire. In his defence, the first three across the line all came from 11th or worse at the 400m so it was a race run to suit the swooping brigade.
The majority of his form back home is in G2/G3 mile races but he was far from disgraced in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes (1609m) behind the very talented Ribchester in June this year. You do however have to go back to July 2016 for his most recent victory, which came at Dusseldorf over 1600m. Nothing in his form says he’ll run a strong 2000m which makes him pretty hard to recommend.
Predicted finishing position: 7-9
5. Folkswood (GB) (5) Kerrin McEvoy (59kg) Charlie Appleby
He looks a pretty professional galloper this Appleby-trained gelding and he’s obviously settled in well here given his dominant Cranbourne Cup (2025m) win. McEvoy gave him an absolute peach of a ride but the horse was still strong, clocking the second-fastest final 600m, 400m and 200m splits. Given he was 1st-up for 134 days, there is no reason why he can’t show further improvement here over the same trip, albeit against much stronger opposition. Second-up last preparation he was a 2L winner at Meydan over 1800m before finishing a close-up 2nd in a Dubai Group One over the same trip. It’s not exactly easy to line up that form but his 3.1L 3rd behind the high-class Deauville three-back says he’s good enough to mix it with Gailo Chop and Happy Clapper.
McEvoy has decided to stick with Folkswood over his uncle’s horse Royal Symphony, partly because the thought of fasting down to 49.5kg didn’t really excite him but also because this gelding gave him such a good feel in the Cranbourne Cup. This is a huge step up from that race but he looks capable of making the necessary improvement to run into second.
Predicted finishing position: 2-4
6. Seaburge (AUS) (1) Regan Bayliss (57.5kg) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
He’s $151 and it’s not hard to see why based on his performances this preparation (although he did show improvement in the G1 Toorak Handicap last start). The Lindsay Park galloper has raced twice over this trip for a 2nd in the 2016 G1 Mackinnon Stakes and a last-placing (beaten 38.9L) in the G1 Rosehill Guineas.
Seaburge ran well at monster odds last time but he still finished behind Petrology which doesn’t look the strongest form for a date with Winx in the Cox Plate. Happy to look elsewhere.
Predicted finishing position: 8-9
7. Hardham (AUS) (3) Luke Nolen (57.5kg) David Brideoake
A surprise entry into the race, this Brideoake-trained galloper would need to improve many lengths to get anywhere near the minor money here. He ran okay in last Saturday’s G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), coming from 13th at the 400m to pass a few late, but he steps up to WFA here — meaning he jumps from 52.5kg to 57kg. His defeat at $1.55 in the Inglis Cup (2000m) two-back doesn’t read at all well for this.
They are paying to 8th here so connections are obviously hoping Hardham can get his nose in front of Seaburge to pick up $100,000. One thing in his favour is that he could easily land in the one-one position provided he steps cleanly from barrier three.
Predicted finishing position: 8-9
8. Winx (AUS) (6) Hugh Bowman (57kg) Chris Waller
Not a great deal needs to be said here. She’s arguably the best horse in the world and is shooting for 22 wins on the bounce. Her form in Melbourne is particularly astonishing, winning her four starts by a combined margin of 21.25L. There were some little jitters earlier this preparation but her stunning win in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) last start smashed any doubts over whether she could win a historic third Cox Plate.
The rest are playing for second here. Enjoy the show.
Predicted finishing position: 1 (by a huge space)
9. Royal Symphony (AUS) (7) Dean Yendall (49.5kg) Tony McEvoy
The lone 3YO in the field and a horse who gives every indication that he’ll appreciate the 2040m journey here. He was brilliant overcoming traffic issues to win over 1400m at Flemington 1st-up but things haven’t panned out too well for him since, finishing 4th in both the Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m) and the Guineas itself. His lack of early pace leaves him open to finding trouble back in the field and that’s exactly what happened at Caulfield last start. The colt was stuck behind a wall of runners passing the 400m and despite clocking the second-fasted final furlong (12.37) he just had way too much to do, finishing 2.3L off Mighty Boss.
Royal Symphony is the ‘X-factor’ in the race and a difficult horse to assess. The small field suits but he’s never been in a race of this sort of pressure. If he gets back in the field and the pace is clapped on at the 800m, he is going to have to sustain a long run to pick up the likes of Gailo Chop who will (more than likely) be a fair way ahead of him in the run. If he could somehow settle in the first three I’d rate his place chances much higher.
Predicted finishing position: 4-7
VERDICT
Winx (8) followed by daylight. But who follows daylight?
The best place hopes for mine are Happy Clapper (1), Gailo Chop (2), and Folkswood (5). The latter probably has the most scope for improvement and has the services of Kerrin McEvoy, arguably the most in-form rider in the land.
BETTING STRATEGY
For a $100 spend: $60 on Folkswood to place at $2.45 and a $40 trifecta of 8 — 1, 2, 5 — 1, 2, 5 returning 666% of the declared dividend.
This article was originally published by punters.com.au and reproduced with permission.
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