Caulfield Cup 2021: Runner-by-runner preview, form guide and tips
Ahead of the Caulfield Cup on Saturday, here’s everything you need to know about one of the biggest horse races on the calendar.
The Caulfield Cup (2400m) is upon us for another year, with a capacity field of 18 set to face the starter on Saturday at 5.15pm AEDT.
There is a very strong chance we’ll be racing on a rain-affected track, with showers forecast on Friday (15-25mm) and Saturday (8-15mm).
Monitor the weather and conditions, but keep in mind that the below analysis is based on a Soft 6/7 rating. The track will be in the true position.
Runner-by-runner preview, tips and betting strategy for the 2021 Caulfield Cup below.
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All the early action looks to be out wide here, with Incentivise and Delphi drawing the two outside gates. You would think both horses will be ridden positively out of the stalls to cross over, especially given Homesman has drawn to give them a cart across. There is no real speed drawn inside, which could see Duais and Young Werther settle a bit closer than they normally do. Explosive Jack will likely end up three or four-back the fence, while Nonconformist probably has to go back from his draw to find cover. The early tempo should be strong but it should slacken.
Analysis
1. HOMESMAN
Homesman finished 2nd in this race in 2018 - his last run at 2400m - coming off just an even effort in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) a week earlier. This is almost the same scenario, except he comes into this third-up rather than fourth-up. His Caulfield Stakes run last Saturday was okay given he was probably ridden to beat Zaaki (which he nearly did) and Probabeel/Nonconformist benefited from that. He won the G2 Crystal Mile on a Soft 7 but was thrashed in the Doncaster on a Heavy 8 (was caught wide there though). He’s proven that the one-week back-up is no issue. The map looks okay given he’ll likely end up on the back of Delphi and Incentivise if Childs doesn’t want to lead.
2. INCENTIVISE
Incentivise has gone from being thrashed in a Toowoomba maiden, to the raging-hot Caulfield Cup favourite in the space of seven months. It’s been an extraordinary rise that has seen him win eight races on the bounce, including the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) and the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) since being transferred to Peter Moody’s Victorian base. His win in the Turnbull was outstanding, absorbing pressure at the front of affairs before shaking off the challengers to score by 0.5L. Horse of the Year Verry Elleegant had the drop on him at the top of the straight but he left her standing in what was a superb Caulfield Cup trial. He has won his last two starts at 2400m+ by a combined margin of 21.5L, so it’s hard to see him going backwards third-up. He’s unbeaten on soft (4 from 4) but is yet to strike a really wet track. Drawing the carpark is hardly ideal, but as mentioned above, there is no real speed drawn close to the fence so he shouldn’t burn too much petrol getting over.
3. EXPLOSIVE JACK
This Maher and Eustace galloper is screaming out for 2400m after finding the line nicely in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) second-up. His record at 2200m and beyond is terrific, winning the Tasmanian Derby (2200m), the G1 ATC Derby (2400m) and the G1 SA Derby (2500m). This is a significant step up from those 3YO-only races, but only Young Werther and Chapada run a quicker last 200m than him in the Turnbull and he’s certainly open to further improvement third-up. He won the ATC Derby on a Soft 6 but that’s as wet as he’s encountered so far. Gate one isn’t a great result for a horse who needs time and space to go through his gears.
4. THE CHOSEN ONE
He can mix it up this Kiwi stayer, but his best is very good, as he showed with a 0.95L 3rd in this event last year behind a couple of genuine stars in Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck. He then backed that up with a 4th in the G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m), so he had a terrific spring. His autumn was less successful but he appears to have come back in good order this campaign, hitting the line hard for 3rd in the Feehan Stakes (1600m), and running home nicely for 2nd behind Delphi in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) last start. He gets in with only 0.5kg more than he carried last year and although his wet-track record looks poor on paper, he’s not hopeless on soft/heavy ground (ran 2nd in the 2020 Sydney Cup on a Heavy 8). He’s drawn nicely for Lane.
5. OCEAN BILLY
This former Kiwi, now with Chris Waller, will be making his Australian debut here, stepping from 1600m to 2400m. His last two wins have come in the G3 Waikato Cup (2400m) and the G1 Auckland Cup (3200m), so the sharp distance rise is certainly in his favour. His wet track record (7:1-0-0 on soft, 3:0-1-0 on heavy) doesn’t make for inspiring reading and he looks a bit too dour to mix it with the likes of Incentivise.
6. SELINO
Sent out at $81 in the G3 Bart Cummings (2520m) last start, Selino ran quite well for 4th but this is significantly harder. The drop back in distance, although only slight, doesn’t really do him any favours and she needs it dry. Waller is good, but I’m not sure he’s this good. Barrier 17 doesn’t help his cause.
7. PERSAN
He was a winning machine last year, Persan, going from a Bendigo maiden win in May to 5th in the G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m). However, after winning first-up at The Valley in March, his form really dropped away quite sharply. He was awful in a couple of Flemington races when well-fancied, before being tipped back out for a break. He has looked better this campaign but Incentivise, Young Werther, Chapada and Explosive Jack all had his measure in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) last start and he needs to find a couple of lengths at least.
8. QUICK THINKER
This Baker and Forsman-trained stayer is a genuine mudder, so connections will be hoping the track is bottomless. He won the G1 ATC Derby (2400m) on a Heavy 8 and was too strong for Rondinella in this year’s G2 Chairman’s Quality (2600m) on a Soft 7. He was legless in the G1 Metropolitan (2400m) last start but that was on a Good 4. If the track is a Heavy 8 or worse, he can grind his way into the minor money without surprising.
9. CHAPADA
You couldn’t have possibly made a case for this horse in a Caulfield Cup based on his form at the tail-end of the autumn and his first two runs this spring. He was beaten over 6L in the G3 Naturalism (2000m) here second-up (admittedly was never in a great spot) but ran out of his skin in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (200m) at $101, running past Verry Elleegant to grab 3rd behind Incentivise and Young Werther. Interestingly, it was his third big run at Flemington in a row (3rd in the G3 Queen Elizabeth at $16, 3rd in the G1 Australian Cup at $41), but his form at other tracks has been average at best. He was 9th in this race last year coming off a big win, so a top 10 finish is probably the best case scenario again.
10. DELPHI
Delphi, like Incentivise, comes into this off a Queensland winter campaign - albeit with just the one start. He finished 6th in the Listed Wayne Wilson (1600m), which was his Australian debut, before being tipped back out for a break. He has improved at every run since, finishing 4th in the Listed Heatherlie (1700m) on resumption, before just being outbobbed by Nonconformist in the G3 Naturalism (2000m) here. He was ridden like the best stayer in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) last Saturday and duly saluted, scoring by 1L from The Chosen One. The son of Galileo has had three runs at 2400m and beyond for three wins. He won on a soft track at Navan, and the overall time suggests the track was pretty slow, but a really wet surface is a query as he’s only seen Good 4s in Australia. On paper, he’s drawn terribly, but at least he’ll be alongside his main danger.
11. MASTER OF WINE
Master Of Wine has been pretty disappointing since finishing 4th in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) won by Addeybb. He’s placed in only two of his last 12 starts and was well-held in this event last year after turning for home in the first couple. His most recent effort in the G3 Bart Cummings (2520m) was his best for some time though, running home strongly for 3rd behind Grand Promenade. He needs to improve again here though and it’s doubtful whether he’s got the necessary improvement in him at this stage of his career.
12. MONTEFILIA
Did Montefilia prove herself at 2400m by winning the G1 Metropolitan last start, or was she the best of an average lot? Entente, thrashed in last year’s Geelong Cup (2400m), finished 2nd and Harpo Marx was 3rd, so there have to be question marks on that form. In all her previous runs around this trip, Montefilia has been competitive but reasonably well-held. She finished 3rd in the G1 VRC Oaks (2500m), 4th in the G1 ATC Derby (2400m) - 2.4L off Explosive Jack - and 5th in the G1 ATC Oaks (2400m). Both Young Werther and Explosive Jack appear to have her measure from a distance perspective.
13. PORT GUILLAUME
Port Guillaume has been a big flop in Australia so far, but he did have excuses last start in the G3 Bart Cummings (2520m), pulling up lame after racing wide. The blinkers go on for the first time and he does plummet in weight down to 52kg, but you couldn’t recommend him on his three efforts this campaign (not horrible in the Naturalism but others in this were better).
14. SHE’S IDEEL
She’s Ideel looked on track for this race after winning the G3 Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) at Randwick two-back, but she took a step or two backwards last start with a plain effort in the G1 Metropolitan (2400m). She got a long way back from barrier 12 but failed to make any real impression and was outsprinted by a couple of horses who would be huge odds in this. One thing in her favour here is the strong likelihood of a wet track. She’s had seven starts on rain-affected ground for four wins and three minor placings, so the more rain the better. Connections won’t have too many complaints about barrier five.
15. YOUNG WERTHER
Young Werther loomed up like he was a chance to go past Incentivise in the G1 Turnbull (2000m) last start but the boom stayer found another gear when challenged. Beaten as a $3.40 favourite in last year’s Vic Derby (2500m), Young Werther has had three runs since at 2000m+ for three minor placings, with his 0.1L 2nd to Explosive Jack in the G1 ATC Derby (2400m) the pick of the bunch. He’s clearly come back in terrific order this campaign, hitting the line with vigour at both starts. Can he turn the tables on Incentivise though, given he meets him 0.5kg worse for a 0.5L margin last start? A really wet track is a complete unknown but he’s drawn for the right run in transit.
16. NONCONFORMIST
This has been the target race for Nonconformist all year and it’s hard to fault his lead-up. He resumed with a steady 6th in the G2 PB Lawrence (1400m), before finishing just 0.7L off Superstorm in the G2 Feehan Stakes (1600m) second-up. The rise to 2000m in the G3 Naturalism (2000m) saw him knock off Delphi in a tight go, before just being edged out by star mare Probabeel in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) at WFA level. He carried the same weight as Cox Plate favourite Zaaki there and beat him home by 1.75L. His one and only previous run over this trip was fair, finishing 2.75L off Mount Popa in the Mornington Cup, but he looks an improved galloper this campaign. He has won on a Soft 6 but he’s yet to race on anything worse than that. Barrier 16 is a shocker.
17. DUAIS
Duais was supposed to be a run short in the G3 Coongy (2000m) - understandable given she was already in this field - but that didn’t stop her from swooping over the top of hot favourite Floating Artist. It was an impressive performance by the G1 QLD Oaks (2200m) winner and she drops from 57kg right down to 51kg for this. She ran 2nd to Hungry Heart in the G1 ATC Oaks (2400m) when on a seven-day back-up and she’s yet to miss a place from four starts on soft ground. She has, however, been well-held at both starts on heavy tracks. Dee should be able to settle her around midfield, one-off, from barrier three.
18. CHARMS STAR
Charms Star finished 2nd to Duais in the G1 QLD Oaks (2200m) back in June but was no match at all for that filly. She has improved steadily with each run this campaign, coming from 13th at the 400m in the G1 Metrop (2400m) to finish 7th. The Metrop form looks dicey though and a wet track has to be a major concern, given she’s only placed once from five starts on soft, and that was in a maiden.
19EM GREAT HOUSE
Great House was better than She’s Ideel in the Metrop, passing more than half the field in the straight to finish 1.73L off Montefilia. He won the G3 Newcastle Cup (2300m) prior to that, so he’s certainly found form at the right time (stepping out over a trip seemingly the catalyst). He handles wet tracks and isn’t completely hopeless if he gains a start.
20EM CONSTANTINOPLE
Even with a 400m headstart it would be hard to back Constantinople here. He hasn’t looked like running a place since finishing 4th in this event last year.
Verdict
2. Incentivise
15. Young Werther
10. Delphi
1. Homesman
$100 Betting Strategy
$85 on Incentivise @ $2.40 or tote
$15 on Young Werther @ $11
This article originally appeared on Punters.com.au and has been republished with permission.
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